My numbers slightly differ from BLS (+-0.1). For example, the BLS has the rise last month as 0.6 and September of 2021 as 0.20.
Since August of 2021 we both calculate only three positive months. We both calculate six positive months for production and nonsupervisory workers. Most months we arrive at the same number.
Fred Calculation For July 2022
- Mish (Via Fred): Real Average Hourly Earnings Percent Change = Average Earnings Percent Change Minus CPI Percent Change = 0.50 Percent Rounded
- BLS: 0.60 Percent
Please consider the BLS Real Earnings Report for August 2022.
All Employees
- Real average hourly earnings for all employees increased 0.2 percent from July to August, seasonally adjusted.
- This result stems from an increase of 0.3 percent in average hourly earnings combined with an increase of 0.1 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U).
- Real average weekly earnings decreased 0.1 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.3-percent decrease in the average workweek.
Production and Nonsupervisory Workers
- Real average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees increased 0.3 percent from July to August, seasonally adjusted.
- This result stems from a 0.4-percent increase in average hourly earnings combined with no change to the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
- Real average weekly earnings increased 0.1 percent over the month due to the change in real average hourly earnings being combined with a decrease of 0.3 percent to the average workweek.
For all employees, the decline in the workweek ate over 100% of the wage increase. Production and nonsupervisory workers came out slightly ahead.
Year-Over-Year Real Wages
- From August 2021 to August 2022, real average hourly earnings decreased 2.4 percent, seasonally adjusted.
- The change in real average hourly earnings combined with a 0.9-percent decrease in the average workweek resulted in a 3.2-percent decrease in real average weekly earnings over this period.
Year-over-year employees continue to lose vs. inflation.
For more on the CPI, please see Stocks Hammered as CPI Rises a Mere 0.1 Percent More Than Expected.
Also note Food Prices Surge Again in August, What’s in Your Basket?
This post originated on MishTalk.Com.
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Mish
visas, I have no idea where the needed labor will come from over the
next decade.”
Oil and gas companies have been reducing capex spending worldwide for almost a decade now because they expected demand for oil to drop as the world transitioned to renewables.
Mortgage credit availability decreased in August according to the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) that analyzes data from ICE Mortgage Technology.
The MCAI fell by 0.5 percent to 108.3 in August. A decline in the MCAI indicates that lending standards are tightening, while increases in the index are indicative of loosening credit. The index was benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. The Conventional MCAI decreased 1.0 percent, while the Government MCAI remained essentially unchanged. Of the component indices of the Conventional MCAI, the Jumbo MCAI decreased by 0.7 percent, and the Conforming MCAI fell by 1.2 percent.
“Mortgage credit availability declined slightly in August, as investors reduced their offerings of ARM and non-QM loan programs. With overall origination volume expected to shrink in 2022, some lenders continue to streamline their operations by dropping certain loan programs to simplify their offerings. Additionally, with a worsening economic outlook and signs of cooling in home-price growth, the appetite for riskier loan programs has been reduced,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Slightly offsetting these trends, however, was a small increase last month in new HELOC products. With aggregate home equity still at elevated levels, HELOCs could benefit borrowers who might not want to give up on their current, low mortgage rate but do want to utilize their home equity to support other spending plans.”