When will the NBER Declare a Recession?
When will the NBER declare a recession?
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) April 7, 2020
Will the NBER Declare Recession Before It’s Over?
Will the NBER declare this recession before it’s over?
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) April 7, 2020
What’s the Length?
How long will this recession will last?
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) April 7, 2020
Shape of the Recovery?
When the recession ends what will be the shape of the recovery
— Mike “Mish” Shedlock (@MishGEA) April 7, 2020
Comments welcome as usual.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Can we call a spade a shovel on here?
This is not some candy ass recession we’re looking at. This, at best will be a depression, lasting years.
At worst it will be the end of fiat currencies, enforced government crypto accounts and nanotech confirmable vaccines, along with other unforeseen restrictions on movement, financial activity and property ownership.
My frame for all of this is that we are now in asymmetric war between ‘globalists’ and ‘nationalists’ (to oversimplify). The globalists are part of the dominant paradigm the past fifty years or so and are embedded deep in most nations and especially of course global institutions. In the US some call it ‘Deep State’ but also many globalists are university professors, economists and far more.
China is the globalist manufacturing hub. Russia might be its defense hub. America is services and a great consumer market. UK might be intelligence still senior to US, but not sure. Etc. The main point is that they have separated the globe into mutually dependent blocks, so they have in some sense been already divided and conquered. The current situation with medicines being nearly all made in China being a front and center example.
After last trade deal, various Chinese generals were reported to have proclaimed that asymmetric war has been analysed, practiced and is coming because they will not let the US close them down or curtail their Belt & Road plan.
Well, Covid is the opening salvo in asymmetric war. Looks like HCQ has solved the problem, although the globalists in various Admin depts including CDC, FDA etc. are slow-walking everything they can, pushing the ‘it won’t get better until a vaccine in 12-18 months’ line. They won’t push HCQ because they are (globalist again) Big Pharma shills. Big corporations are behind globalists too of course because anything that can reduce power of nation state regulatory authorities is good – less red tape if there is one-size-fits-all regs and a corporation-friendly international court.
To be clear: the war isn’t between China and the US (and their respective allies). It’s between one system and a less structured one, in many ways similar to how Democrats generally line up with Big State/globalist patterns and Republicans are more into liberty, small government, community togetherness rather than the former’s ideological uniformity.
So my prediction based on the above is that although in an ordinary world Trump might get some sort of V-bottom with more or less return to normal (with many weak players having been shaken out), but these are not normal times and the globalists have more than pandemics in their arsenal. IN a way they have studied what has happened with this one, learned much about various nations’ strengths and weaknesses, and no doubt have already prepared the next move.
So there will be a second leg down, perhaps to 50% of the value reached at recent highs (stock market wise). Pension funds will be obliged to capitulate. Baby boomers may be, if not impoverished, greatly reduced. The goal is to bring down not only Trump himself, but representative Republics in their current form. They will continue to frame most US things through the lens of personalising everything around the vivid character of Trump; this has so far been a very successful way of distracting everyone from looking at what is really going on. So this will be all about Trump and if things go badly, replacing him will be the story, but really it will be about the Republic being that much closer to capitulation as such.
Some form of friendly totalitarian one-part (chinese model) governance managed mainly by experts (like Fauxi) will be pushed as current systems find themselves increasingly unable or unwilling to deal with whatever asymmetric war crap is thrown at them again and again until they surrender.
Could take years.
We are at war.
The first casualty of war is the truth.
The first BIG LIE with this one, is that we are not at war, rather dealing with a pathogen, that’s all.
This is the big one folks…
If you are speaking of a Pre-Coronavirus economy or level of standard of living, kiss that fucking bye-bye.
Reasons being, the debt to GDP ratio is so far out of skew that there is no recovery.
Just going back to 1900 will be a challenge.
This downturn will be a total change of lifestyle and survival.
The dollar will not collapse, at first, as it is the top currency now, but with BRICs and Japan turning away from the allure of the dollar and the FED turning it out like Battery Acid Crystal Meth in missouri (no caps for you) it will lead to hyperinflation followed by deflation of a scale never seen before.
Learn Barter NOW, as my Seneca-Cayuga Father use to say, “You can’t eat gold”.
The reason it is is referred to as a recession is that after the Great Depression TPTB decided to never again use the “D” word, the technical differences involving the 2 quarters rule and such came much later.
That is like the FED, change the terms. Just as the orange headed Asshole uses the term socialism in the pejorative sense against liberals, by definition it is The “reallocation of wealth” and that 1.5 trillion dollar tax break he, and bush did too (no caps rule) just redistributed it up the economic ladder and not down.
I don’t read to much here about the fact that this latest FED fiasco is concerned with the trickle down rule (a term first used by LBJ) and not the largest stimulator of the economy, the 72% who spend most in the service sector.
The velocity money multiplier component is shit and has been for 20 years.
Reagan started the downfall by stimulating debt, or we can go back to Nixon and his gold fiasco or the 1913 Federal reserve act but it matters not. Point being we had plenty of opportunities to apply the handbrake and didn’t.
The system is broke and the rules have changed.
It will lead to revolt.
Notice this time around TPTB knew they had to dish out some crumbs to the average, but extremely large, lower casts to ward off civil disruption, but this won’t last forever.
Get Fucking use to it from here on out and expect new tricks by the Government and the FED to placate the lower casts, we don’t do well in captivity, not after the second and third bailouts anyway.
Maybe they can use all that excess toilet paper in the public’s hands (pun intended) to wipe all that currency off their collective asses, right after they confiscate it.
I’m checking my balls every day as that is the only thing they ain’t got yet.
GOOD LUCK.
MLB and MLBPA are discussing, however unlikely, playing games in the beginning of this season with no fans and all games in AZ. All of AZ’s Spring Training facilities, in addition to Chase Field are within 90 miles of each other, while some Spring Training parks in Florida are as much as 220 miles apart.
link to foxsports.com … ona-040620
The NHL is considering an August return with no fans in attendance:
link to cbc.ca … -1.5523339
Professional sports need fans buying $10 beers.
What if we have to do this again this Fall/Winter?
what if we have to do this every fall/winter, like the flu?
$64K question.
My sense is that there could be a lot of pent up demand when the shut down is lifted and so there will be a lot of interest in going out – getting in restaurants, going to shows, shopping after being cooped up for a month and a half. And then we get a V shaped recovery. But what happens if the demand is not there because savings accounts are down and buyers hit the pause button before going out. Or out of work workers who were getting unemployment are not hired back as quickly. The local business realizes the business can run with fewer people, or simply can not come back because there is no working capital. Then may be a long L. The big guys will probably be fine – but here in Vermont worry about all the small businesses that are not rich.
Everything is not going to open at the same time. Some states/counties will remain locked down while others won’t. In addition there will be significant supply chain issues to deal with that will take months to resolve.
If this had happened in 1980, pre-web, I think we’d be looking at a several-year depression. However, most of the production process sets have not atrophied this time, nor the workforce memory of how to use them.
Assuming a common sense approach to a restart is well underway by month-end, I see the worst kitchen sink quarter in history coming up for Q2, followed by progress in the second half…assuming this damned thing doesn’t mutate and start killing in even greater numbers before the Bio-med folks can get it cornered.
Don’t know what kind of production you are talking about. This country can’t even produce PPEs when it’s needed, instead it had to resort to fighting with other countries for those things in some Chinese airport tarmac.
If we are talking about online ads and pizza though, that’s a different story. In those areas, we are indeed world champs.
“This country can’t even produce PPEs when it’s needed,”
We’re ripping up a chunk of output capacity for PPE, for obvious good reason, but with any luck, you can’t give it away three months from now. Then, the manufacturing folks will get to put everything back together, after all the talking head slicks, presidents, camera crews, etc. have departed…and they will, but it’s not for free.
Plus, every CFO waiting 11 years now for an opportunity to jettison losers has the chance: Ugly coming up.
“Will the NBER Declare Recession Before It’s Over?”
Depends on how long the recession is. The 2001 recession lasted only 6 months. The 2008 recession lasted a year and a half. In 2008, the NBER had plenty of time to declare a recession before it was over.
Well he wants to get things opened up again. Damn the additional infections!
He may be a stable genius, but we are not horses.
The consequences of leaving the economy closed are quite serious. A local gun store i often pass by, became a photo featured on Zero Hedge, as people lined up outside to buy. Photos also featured some boarded stores in Beverly Hills. People are very concerned about potential social unrest from a lengthy shut down.
I still clearly remember the Rodney King riots. A 7/11 and an electronics store were looted, two blocks from where i worked at the time.
I also remember the riots well. I worked at a grocery store near Venice at the time and the lines today reminded me of the lines during the riots. My store was spared, but a Boys Market about a half mile down Lincoln was partially burned, looted, bricks thrown through the windows, etc. It was also the only time in my life I had a machine gun pointed at me as the National Guard took up various positions around the Westside and used the VA property as a staging area. CHP were also escorting firemen to burning buildings because they were being shot at. Just chaos for a few days. God forbid society breaks down like that now anywhere in the country.
Too early to tell.
In a recession now zero doubt. Once All Clear sounded will be the tell. Does virus spike? How soon before the masses return to normal behavior?
Wall Street will likely ignore any economic numbers for March / April / likely May as “If not for virus, economy would be humming” and numbers will V – shape once economy opens back up. I have serious doubts about virus tamped down to degree that masses resume normalcy quickly. Economy will be in a slog for balance of year … Wall Street will take note … with hat in hand I’m sure.
V-shaped recovery followed by a bunch of WW’s
Just like the number of cases.
If you thought one dramatic shutdown was bad for the economy, wait until it becomes obvious that there will be multiple cycles.
The Fed will save us as usual. They are buying stocks behind the scenes now. Wait till they buy stocks openly.
Also MMT has arrived.
The FT Says It’s Time for the Bank of England to Start Direct Funding of the Government. After the UK, it’s the US.
Recessions will never happen again.
A vaccine…a vaccine will save us. Maybe. Maybe not. A product of the existing criminal infrastructure…do you really have that much trust? Bypass all 3 of the body’s natural defense mechanisms and inject “whatever” into your body?
The reality is vaccine’s are marginal and come with their own associated health risks and toxic components (aluminum, mercury, animal DNA/disease, etc).
Its really hard to be well and fight off sickness on a diet of processed pap. Even if you take your daily handful of pills (dirt components)…again marginally effective and outside of mineralizing the sewage system…not a replacement for mineral and enzyme deficient processed pap.
Plants turn dirt into absorbable components. Animals and humans do far better on plants (and animals…sorry PETA – people eating tasty animals)…than they do on eating dirt.
That leaves us with upending the current medical and agricultural systems (and everything associated)…and redirecting our attention and resources to a real cure. Which vastly upsets the current paradigm…and all those who profit from it. That is the war to be fought.
SARS did not burn out. It is not as contagious and was controlled by contact tracing.
Indeed, any comparison to SARS is a false analogy. COVID and SARS are even remotely related to each other in terms of spreading.
And then again, there was the Weimar Republic.
The latest newspeak after “the new normal” is “The next two weeks will be our 9/11 or Pearl Harbor moment.” Notice that 9/11 and Pearl Harbor were the START of wars. We are being prepped for extension of the state of emergency into the foreseeable future.
Goodbye civil rights, hello police state. Notice how organized religion and a large chunk small business were wiped out without an act of legislation or a single law being passed. Just an executive order will do now.
The unemployment rate does not even include the millions of self employed that have been put out of business and think, do to government and MSM equivocation, that they might go back to work next month. What do you think will happen when the foreclosures and evictions start coming by the tens of millions? Do you understand what happens when people are hungry, soon to be homeless and have nothing to do?
The entire economy will collapse because it is interdependent, and those parts that are not directly affected today by the suspension of civil rights and house arrest will lose their jobs over the next few months as spending declines. Not to mention the credit collapse. While people are not working and most everything has stopped, debt service continues unabated. Taxes do as well. I don’t see the banksters or the government forgiving a nickle.
This situation will not continue without serious civil strife as more people lose their income, their homes and life’s savings.
Working age people and children are at low risk of dying from C19. Let them go back to work and school, protect the elderly and get this over with. Trump keeps saying that he wants to get things opened up again so that the cure is not worse than the disease. I’m tending to agree. This cure clearly is. On the present course, we won’t see prosperity again for a decade or more.
This could all change on a dime if a treatment or vaccine emerges, or it turns out that a large segment of the population has already contracted the virus and recovered. Let’s hope.
Sort of freaky what is going on in Spain. I know the mindset of current technocrat socialists there, that’s why I labelled state of emergency a temporary socialist dictatorship. Well they plan to extend the s.o.e. repeatedly, but have run into problems with both small business and agriculture. So, they now are issuing a decree that will put the unemployed to work in agriculture (harvesting), it is not clear if the problem is reduced mobility to work site or no takers for whatever reason ( fear of virus, already receiving benefits etc.) , and it is not clear if the government actually plans to force them to work (as in manage them with leverage government has on their circumstance now that they claim benefits) .
Aside from that, in reply to how countries come out of this, in Spain people are already getting restless now cases are dropping and infractions on restrictions occuring more because of this. The government reply is to keep pressure on society to comply, no tolerance – this is the sort of reality that will create flashpoints of whatever kind.
It won’t be too long until the pictures are of tanks, not tractors.
Spain has been at a polítical impasse for years, the appearance of new parties after 2008 disrupted the previous two party system, and stable coalitions are not a Spanish feature, plus the old bands still detest each other. So governance has become both weak and increasingly statist – there was already a lot of tension in the country for various reasons. The population will be increasingly confused by the current strictness, because their understanding is that the right is the dictatorship, and here it is the left that is pushing these measures. Maybe the local person, or even the further left, will protest a ground level, the right it will be at higher levels to protect their interests and take over a bad management. I don’t know if it would come to tanks in the streets, but there is going to be some kind of chaotic confrontation going on sooner or later as there are just too many sides to what is going on in the country nowadays.
Saw today that France has now banned outdoor exercise between the hours of 10am and 7pm!
‘On the present course, we won’t see prosperity again for a decade or more’
Don’t forget the past nearly 2-3 decades living ( bottom 60-90%) on debt on debt, up until today. More debts are being piled on the public sector. All and every kind of DEBT(s) are at RECORD levels unlike any time in human history! Servicing the DEBT in the private will be challenging in coming months/years to come!
2 things are the deciding factors
How much employment returns, not everyone will have a job to go back to this year or next.
And a vaccine or treatment that gives confidence to people that they’re not going to get sick, die or cause the death of someone else by returning to work and regular life.
I believe this will be a long process 2+ years before we see some stabilization, and a lot of jobs/economic activity are gone forever. It will be a different world in general.
An example is soon all stores will limit the amount of customers in to shop and so they will need less registers open. I saw this at Costco the other day, just 3 registers open and because of the low volume of shoppers it was just fine. Theres usually 8-10 registers open. They will not be doing as much business because of this much needed policy.
Until a treatment or vaccine comes along the amount of economic activity cannot return to anywhere close to where it was and that is ultimately the deciding factor.
I don’t what Costco you are talking about. Around here, the Costco’s parking lot looks like they are giving away the stuff for free….The store is packed with people walking around in an orderly way.
I’m in N Ca, Whole Foods is the same. They have an employee at the door letting people in as people come out.
They should just lift this BS lockdown, give good, honest info/direction to the people and let it burn through the population. A vaccine could be 12-18 months away or 5-7 years away…or more.
I’ll offer a different perspective on recession odds and length.
Those forecasting a recovery do so based on the notion that things will resume normalcy immediately once we’ve bent the curve. That is wrong on two counts:
Bending the curve isn’t permanent. Three weeks after people go back to work, assuming they even do, the curve will revert back to exponential growth. That will slam the newfound confidence that will inevitably be in place once the curve is bent.
Low income people, of which there are a great many in this country, will not recover from this shutdown. Here’s some data that I’ve compiled from NC, where I live: I manage 130 units of low income property. All the units are occupied except 4. In the last month about 30 people living here have lost their jobs, and approximately 30 more are about to lose their jobs. That’s a current unemployment rate for low income folks of 23% and, in a week, a likely rate of over 45%. Granted, low income folks are more likely to be laid off due to higher rates of hospitality work (restaurants\hotels etc).
Low income folks also spend 100% of everything they earn. I examine all of their financials at lease renewal time and very rarely do any of them save anything. Additionally, low income folks have stopped paying rent to me. That’s alarming and is going to have repercussions for me. HUD has forbidden us to evict anyone for 4 months and the tenants are now aware of that. We cannot even charge a late fee. Many of my tenants are just now getting tax rebates, often in excess of 10k, and will be getting another 3k from the CARE act. About half my tenants, believe it or not, bought a newer model car in the last 2 months. They are completely unprepared for what is coming, both mentally and financially.
Crazy, isn’t it? Yet that mentality during an almost certain recession is ongoing. People’s actions are changing now, and there is much fear among my tenants. They aren’t going to be the same people in 2 years that they are now. That’s the problem with a short recession forecast: It doesn’t consider the permanent change in behavior that will be ongoing. That will take time, lots of time, to correct.
Based on what I am seeing, I forecast a recession slightly worse than the 2008 recession, lasting just as long. We’ll come out of it in 2022, once the virus slows down greatly. As long as most of us have not gotten the virus, we will remain in recession. Since this is likely a 2-3 year affair, and not a 2-3 month one, this will be a deep recession.
Interesting to hear your perspective, I bet it is not atypical; almost all those who can remember living through the last depression have passed on. We will all have to re-learn some of those lessons of personal financial responsibility, with those who have no savings getting hit the hardest. I worry also about the stability of the financial markets for those who do have savings.
dbannist,
You gave us a very interesting perspective. Keep us updated on how things change in your area. I have the sense that things are going to get worse (economically) . Specially when I know that unemployment will pass the 20% mark. There is no way that we are going to have a quick recovery. Those who say so have a vested interest (follow the money). Here is where paranoia works best and the old saying “someone is trying to depart you from your cash” is true.
Thinking that it has spread to a large percentage of the population without harm and without symptoms is just wishful thinking.
I am talking to somebody in an Australian testing lab every day. They are getting a little over 2% hit rate in their tests. These is in an environment where until recently the testing criteria was quite strict you needed symptoms and you needed to have been in at risk either from overseas contacts, a health work or similar.
2% hit rate. That means 98% of those “high risk” people didn’t have the virus. You do the maths.
If there is one thing the “Just like the flu!” or even the “Not as bad as the flu!” crowds have brought to the surface (and I don’t agree with either crowd) is the very thing you just mentioned, i.e. “Unfortunately the flu kills large numbers of elderly folks every year but not a peep from the media or government.”
That complacency has started to strike me as the deliberate result of the kind of CBA that has been presented by those opposed to risking an economic shutdown to try to save lives from the COVID-19 pandemic.
With the “aging” of the population due to advances in healthcare, complacency over the flu starts to seem like a deliberate population control mechanism. Clear out the old from the “herd”, make way for the young …
With the “aging” of the population putting added strain on programs like Social Security, pensions, etc. complacency over the flu starts to seem like a deliberate budget control mechanism. Not that there seems to be much concern at all over budget deficits among the Keynesians that rule the world.
With the “aging” of the population putting added strain on the healthcare systems, complacency over the flu starts to seem like a deliberate healthcare cost control mechanism.
Something tells me that the complacency over the flu is soon enough going to be joined with complacency over COVID-19 … so long as statistics confirm that it really is elderly folks who comprise the massive majority of deaths from the disease.
Just another “beneficial culling the herd of the weakest and most infirm and, of course, very costly” … after all, with a person worth ~10 million dollars to the bean counters, it’s not difficult to see that the elderly, who have ceased being “productive members of society” or whose “productivity has decreased significantly” are nothing but a big fat red negative in the societal CBA.
I suppose we are supposed to be very grateful for the sociopaths among us who see these issues so much more clearly than the rest of us …
Take it up with God or Nature.
Neither God nor Nature is the cause of the complacency of the media or the government toward the flu.
The reality is that any virus typically hits those who are more vulnerable to it – for any reason. That’s how they work.
Before people in the US – and much of the world – became convinced that it was the job of governments to protect them from literally anything that might pose a risk to them in any way, shape, or form, everyone called this “natural”.
Yes, any virus typically hits those who are more vulnerable to it – for any reason.
But I suspect that the complacency the media and the government display toward viruses like the flu, that primarily kill the elderly, would not be present if some new virus came along and happened to hit and usually kill those most vulnerable to it, which just happened to be the vast majority of people under 40, for whatever the reasons.
You know if we did nothing to stop the spread that hospitals would have been overwhelmed and a lot of people, old or otherwise, would have been unable to get timely treatment. That’s a lot of the reasoning behind the “flatten the curve” idea. Flooding the health care system would have caused much more widespread panic too.
I’ll accept your argument about the government’s role only if people also say that there should be no armed forces for the sake of consistency. After all, it’s not their job to protect the population, right?
I say this knowing that it’s been several decades since the US military served any legitimate role, but I understand why countries have armies.
A country that doesn’t go “projecting” itself all over the world and putting their noses in everyone else’s business doesn’t need a huge standing army.
90% of the ops I went on when I was active were the results of problems caused by someone from outside meddling and stirring things up. They would unknowingly kick the nest and once the hornets were sufficiently agitated, we had to go in and clean up the mess.
Example: Dogooders Inc takes donations of $500k and a bunch of volunteer workers to Wakunda and builds a well in a village there because the people don’t have access to fresh water. When they are done, everyone takes pictures and hugs and virtue signals their good deeds and goes home. Two years later the village is a complete humanitarian disaster because as soon as Dogooders got on their planes and headed home, local warlords began fighting for control of the well and killing everyone they didn’t like. Once one gained control, they began using the water to control the local population until a stronger warlord emerged and challenged the current king of the hill. This would continue until everyone realized that there was a problem and guess who got to “fix” it?
This doesn’t even begin to get into all the nose-poking our very own government does all over the world.
Government power is the barrel of a gun. It should be used VERY sparingly if at all.
Unfortunately the flu kills large numbers of elderly folks every year but not a peep from the media or government. If everyone sheltered in place, these deaths could be lessened. Coronavirus will continue to kill the elderly, even after the shutdown ends. But the pace of deaths will have been slowed, and hospitals more able to deal with it. The unfortunate WalMart workers featured in the news who died recently were obese, and likely had pre-existing conditions like diabetes, HBP, and heart disease. As long as demand remains, new businesses will replace failed businesses, but hopefully outsourcing to China will be re-examined and hopefully they will be presented with a huge reparations bill.
After all this time it seems some people don’t get it. This virus is much more deadly than the flue, and much more easily transmitted.
No, you don’t have a clue what you are writing about but it is fun to write something and see your name popup, yes? And it is “flu” not “flue”. Whew.
‘If everyone sheltered in place’
That’s the biggest hurdle if one looks at red states, especially FL!
It’s a problem in blue states like New York and Minnesota, too, but make it all about politics, please. Lord knows we don’t get enough of that sort of thinking. Tool.
Eventually, we’ll all be exposed and everyone will either be immune or dead. The recession will last until we reach that point.
There is another possibility… it comes back each year with enough mutations that our immune system no longer recognizes it. If you get it, you are immune for only 1 season. That is what happens with influenza.
I am quite afraid this will mirror the 1918 Spanish Flu which killed far more in the Fall than in its initial appearance in the Spring. If so, the recovery of any shape will be strangled in the crib.
My concern is this thing goes away in June, the market goes berserk to 30k but Covid comes back out of nowhere in September even worse.
‘the market goes berserk to 30k’
on what fundamental basis other than wishful thinking? Just wait more unemployment # and earnings almost ZILCH in the coming months!
I can see a U shaped recovery. I’m telecommuting. I miss doing stuff with my friends. I especially miss going out for lunch and beer on the weekends. Once it opens up, I think millions will be like me, eager to get out and have some fun.
How long the bottom of the U is is the question. And I think it is going to be longer than most people think. And it may be more of a W. Where the President demands everyone open up, they do, the virus explodes, and we shut back down again. Could be a horror story.
I’m hopeful for a vaccine within a year. They developed a preliminary vaccine for SARS1, which appeared to be successful in animal trials and early human trials, but the process collapsed when SARS1 infections collapsed.
The interesting question to me is how we go about the process of opening back up. You have to do it in a way that initially excludes the aged, and gives people confidence that they aren’t walking into a charnel house of disease. You have to carefully manage expectations. You have to have strict regulations on sanitation at businesses for some period of time. Can the President and Congress (and our state and local leaders) get those details right? Because if they don’t, tens of millions won’t be going back out and spending money. Then the recovery becomes L shaped.
I think we won’t know until a vaccine, I agree. Recession, end of the year, we’ll know more. I think it will start sometime, 2021 & last to 2023. But, it’s still to early to tell.
A vaccine is not going to be a panacea. The flu vaccine works, on average only between 10-60% of the time. Coronavirus mutates all the time. They would need new versions to address each mutation.
Gotta agree with Jojo, it’s impossible to say for now. We still don’t know what’s going on in China and other countries like India and Russia are behind us on the curve, still ramping up along with many others. Even Japan is somehow behind us even though they had cases early on.
It also depends how long new cases stay high in the US and Europe, along with the possibility of an uptick after everything opens again. Too many variables still unknown.
It will DEFINITELY bad whether one pretend to know or not, but the question remains HOW BAD?
Karmic backlash to insane credit creation along with record DEBT levels of ALL kind, unlike any time human history,worldwide is NOT be short or shallow!
There is no way to predict the answer to your question at this point. People are still in self-isolation. Business is closed down in many places. Stimulus has not been delivered. There is so little valid data. You may as well put the calendar for the next few years on the wall, put on a blindfold and throw a dart.
When looking for Data, South Korea is the place.
They are the only country so far that is both on top of the virus, and open about their data.
They also shed a very stark light on the rest of the world’s handling of this. We are looking at a far different outcome then theirs.
Considering the our DEBT situation ( worse since 2009), stocks got bid mindlessly and the demand of SERVICING the DEBT in the private, there will deep and prolonged Global recession, with some fades of recovery, off and on!