by Mish

Hello Mish
We just released Recession Sessions, which is an album of economics-themed songs dedicated to the Great Recession. It’s pioneering the genre of “financial folk”, and we’re hoping to use the album as a springboard to raise money and awareness for the Somerville Homeless Coalition.

In an Email exchange with Ryan, he confirmed that 33% of money raised will go to the Somerville Homeless Coalition.

The song that started it all three years ago is called Central Bankers’ Dilemma. Since then, the group has added 15 more songs. For more information about the artists and the songs please see Recession Sessions.


Three years and several continents later, the album is finished, but Ryan asks “is the crisis really over yet?”

I have a one word answer to that question: No.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Make America Safe: Put Congress on Permanent Recess (What the Sanction Bill is Really About)

House Speaker Paul Ryan just bragged the House passed “one of the most expansive sanction packages in history.”

Covid-19 Recession Will Be Deeper Than the Great Financial Crisis

Economists at IHS Markit downgraded their economic forecast to a deep recession.

Obamacare Lite Set to Pass the House: What About the Senate?

After addressing concerns of older Americans, House Speaker Ryan is Confident About Health Plan’s Passage. Ok but what about the Senate?

Tracking the Great Escape from Cook County and Illinois

Cook County Illinois has the largest population loss of any county in the nation. Chicago represents just over half of the population of Cook County. Here is a graph I put together of the “Great Escape” from Illinois.

Foolproof Recession Indicators

Economist Paul Kasriel at the Northern Trust has come up with a recession indicator that has called six consecutive recessions with no misses and no false positives dating back to 1962.

Canada Debt frenzy About to Crash?

In contrast to a small bit of deleveraging in the US following the great recession, credit expansion in Canada went into overdrive.

Recession Probability Charts: Current Odds About 33%

The New York Fed has the odds of a recession within the next year at 33%. Some of the other models are humorous.

Pulte House From Hell

Following is an Email I received about the “Pulte House From Hell“. It was interesting enough for me to post, but please bear in mind that time simply does not permit me to get involved in all such endeavors.

Fed “Workhorse” Model Says Odds of Recession in Next Year Only 3.56%; What are the Real Odds?

Of all the ridiculous opinions as to why the US is not about to enter a recession, the Fed’s “Workhorse” Model is at the top of the list.