Here is a pair of Tweets on the subject.
https://twitter.com/jtepper2/status/1097576182160084992
That chart is weekly. Ideally, we need to see monthly and it wasn’t posted.
Redbook
The Johnson Redbook Index is a proprietary indicator of growth in retail sales, and provides advanced estimates of trends in retail sales ahead of official releases and company reports in an easy-to-read four-page report. The weekly indicator is made public every Tuesday morning, with clients receiving notice via conference call, e-mail or fax prior to public release.
The Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Monthly is a comprehensive report of same-store sales data reported monthly by general merchandise and apparel retailers. Analysis is given on current month sales, year-on-year, quarterly and annual sales, historical sales data and company rankings. Retailers are tracked across categories: Apparel Specialty, Books, Toy & Hobby, Department, Discount, Footwear, Furniture, Drug, Home Improvement, Home Furnishings, Electronic, Jewelry, Sporting Goods, and Miscellaneous. The Johnson Redbook Same-store Sales Index (SSI), an index of year-on-year same-store sales growth is reported in each edition.
Shockingly Weak Retail Sales
Redbook ties in with my report Shockingly Weak Retail Sales: Down 1.2% in December, Sharpest Decline Since 2009
And its not just retail sales either.
Other Confirming Indicators
- Autos: Surge in Auto Loan Delinquencies: Auto Loans in High Gear
- Credit Card Stress: Household Debt Up 18 Consecutive Quarters to a New Record, Card Stress Rising
- Falling Imports: Trade Deficit Shrinks in November Primarily Due to Falling Imports
- Industrial Production: Industrial Production Dives, Wiping Out a Strong December and Then Some
Very Recessionary
Add it all up and it looks very recessionary. And the EU is already there. Eurozone Recession: Right Here, Right Now!
There is no reason to believe the US will be immune to a global slowdown. People thought that China would decouple in 2008. It didn’t. The US won’t either.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
But all im hearing about today is walmarts december blowout earnings.
Is this the survey that does include electronic retailers?
It would have to be. There is no way that brick and mortar stores were up 6% in January and 4.5% in early February.
All the defaulted and withdrawn credit from 2008 was made re-available to the public (2010-2013ish), and we’ve been re-spending it ever since, with Trump taking all the credit for its re-existence. Eventually we would re-achieve maximum available credit levels of 2008, and the happy-happy would stop. I’ll bet we are already there.
It’s still on the plus side. Slower growth is better than I expected.
I have to admit that I’m shocked to see retail sales still growing at 4.5% year over year in January, even during the government shutdown. That’s faster than 2017, or the first half of 2018.
The bad thing about debt is eventually you have to pay it back or default. I would imagine many U.S. consumers are beginning to find this out the hard way.
Another failed parabolic move. Math works once again.
A long-term chart version would be interesting, overlaid with historical recessions, but I couldn’t figure out their site.
I added this note: That chart is weekly. Ideally, we need to see monthly and it wasn’t posted.
That is weekly – Unfortunately, we do not have monthly which is what we need
There is still YoY growth. It means GDPnow from the Atlanta Fed is probably accurate.
Yes, year over year growth in the 4-5% range is still exceptionally good.
Is that chart correct? Is it actually year over year sales increase? Because if it is, the number dropped because there’s no way to maintain a YOY growth rate in excess of 9%.
The Make America Great Again fervor has tapped out the average American consumer? Imagine that!