Basis Point Spreads

  • 3-month to 1-year: 36
  • 1-year to 2-year: 23
  • 2-year to 3-year: 15:
  • 3-year to 5-year: 19
  • 5-year to 10-year: 16
  • 1--year to 30-year: 32

If the fed hikes twice more this year, with the one-year yield at 2.11 and the 3-month yield at 1.75, there is little room for anything but inversion or a nearly flat curve if rates on the long end fail to rise.

For discussion of the long bong trend, and Lacy Hunt's law of diminishing returns, please see Relentless Yield Curve Flattening.


Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Yield Curve to Completely Flatten in 2018: But How?

The T. Rowe Price Group expects the yield curve to completely flatten in 2018. This is not a surprise as I have been commenting the same way for quite some time. The more important question is how? By yields converging up, down, or a mix?

Flattening Yield Curve in One Picture

The flattening yield curve is a topic of much discussion. The lead chart shows various spreads it in one picture.

Yield Curve Steepening and Flattening: It Depends on Where One Looks

Some claim the yield curve is flattening, others say steepening. The steepening side has more merit starting January 2.

Yield Curve Inversions Again Stretch Out 7 Years

Huge portions of the the yield curve are inverted. Most of the inversions are by tiny amounts, but it's another warning.

Why the Yield Curve Inverts in One Simple Picture

The yield curve inverts when the Fed keeps hiking in the face of a slowdown.

Yield Curve Inverted Out to Seven Years

Portions of the yield curve are once again inverted all the way out to 7 years.

Yield Curve Steepened Since January 3 but Portions Remain Inverted

On Jan 3, portions of the yield curve inverted with the Fed Funds rate. That's gone, but other inversions remain.

What Spot in the Yield Curve is Likely to Invert First?

The yield curve has flattened considerably over the last year. Will it invert? Where? The following chart explains.

Yield Curve Will Invert From the Inside Out

How does the yield curve invert? Jim Bianco at Bianco Research says "Inside Out"