Proud of Irresponsible Budget
Last night I was so proud to have signed the largest Defense Bill ever. The very vital Space Force was created. New planes, ships, missiles, rockets and equipment of every kind, and all made right here in the USA. Additionally, we got Border Wall (being built) funding. Nice!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 21, 2019
Fools and Hypocrites Praise Trump
In 2016, Trump promised to totally wipe out $19 trillion in national debt over eight years in office. Republicans cheered.
Today, hypocrite republicans cheer a trillion dollar deficit and a national debt projected to rise by about $9 trillion.
Trump’s Lies vs Reality
Please consider Trump and the National Debt
During the 2016 presidential campaign, Republican candidate Donald Trump promised he would eliminate the nation’s debt in eight years. Instead, his budgets would add $9.1 trillion during that time. It would increase the U.S. debt to $29 trillion according to Trump’s budget estimates.
Democrats Happy Too
The Hill reports “Trump, who vowed last March to never again sign a massive omnibus spending package, took umbrage in the fact that the spending was divided among two separate bills and played up Republican wins.”
Democrats claimed major victories in the bills as well, such as $25 million to fund research into gun violence, the first such funding in 20 years, $425 million for election security, increased funding for climate research and full funding for the 2020 census. They included a 3.1 percent pay increase for federal workers, matching the raise for members of the military.
“I am particularly proud that House Democrats prevailed in securing historic investments For the People, including record funding levels for Head Start and lifesaving medical research at NIH, and in funding priorities vital to our shared security, like gun violence prevention research and election security grants to states,” said House Appropriations Chairwoman Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.).
Hype vs Reality
Newsweek comments Donald Trump Promised to Eliminate the Deficit in 8 Years, So Far He Increased it by 68%.
According to the latest Congressional Budget Office data released on Monday, the full-year deficit for 2019 is estimated to come in at $984 billion, just shy of the $1 trillion that many analysts were expecting. In 2018 the figure was $779 billion and in 2017 it was $665 billion.
During the last election, Trump said he could clear America’s $19 trillion of gross federal debt within eight years. To do that would mean eliminating the federal deficit, the negative difference between income and expenditure which keeps adding to the debt pile. It is now $22 trillion.
“We’re not a rich country. We’re a debtor nation…We’ve got to get rid of the $19 trillion in debt,” Trump told The Washington Post in April 2016, several months before the election he would win. “I think I could do it fairly quickly…I would say over a period of eight years,” Trump added, and suggested he would do so by renegotiating trade deals and creating trade surpluses.
Read those last two paragraphs closely. Trump pledged to eliminate the debt, not the deficit in 8 years.
Does Newsweek understand the difference?
Regardless, eliminating the deficit is orders of magnitude easier than eliminating the debt, and Trump could not even do that.
Another Trump Fiscal Idiocy
..Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 Trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration, while at the same time reducing taxes for our people. At minimum, we will make much better Trade Deals for our country!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 5, 2018
Was Trump really stupid enough to believe that or was it a purposeful lie?
Fiscal Madness
Trump is full of fiscal BS and lies, yet his supporters cheer.
The budget is irresponsible. Period.
If Democrats produced a budget with a trillion dollar deficit, the Republican hypocrites would be shouting from the rooftops.
When Republicans do the same, there is not one peep anywhere. Even the Democrats seem happy.
TDS Accusations Coming
In response to this post, I expect massive numbers of people accusing me of TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome).
They will ignore the fact that I supported his Supreme Court appointments, praised him for not starting any new wars, and repeatedly mocked those calling for impeachment.
As example of the latter, please see Christmas Impeachment Stocking: There’s Nothing In It
For the record, I voted for Trump and would do so again against Hillary.
TDS Irony
In reality, many of those accusing others of TDS are the deranged ones.
In their eyes, Trump can do no wrong. They will not admit Trump’s brazen lies, massive narcissism, or disastrous trade policy decisions.
The irony in at least some of these TDS accusations is the accusers are the ones who are Trump Deranged.
Yet, I know where the accusations come from. One look at the biased anti-Trump reporting of CNN, the Washington Post, and the New York Times explains much of it.
Instead of hammering Trump on real issues, we see endless garbage on Russia and impeachment “bombshells” where the demise of Trump has allegedly been imminent since the day he was elected.
Projected US Budget Deficit Lie in Four Pictures
Meanwhile, it’s important to understand that budget deficit projections are themselves a lie.
By that I mean the increase in national debt is nearly always greater than the deficit. For discussion, please see my March 11 post Projected US Budget Deficit Lie in Four Pictures.
Given new CBO projections from this revised budget, ite seems I need to do an update.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
To fund huge welfare you have to raise taxes, cut spending or dilute the currency. The latter is the easiest to do and keeps the productive wheels moving.
Mish I thought Russia was a hoax too until I read the book Sandworm and dug through logs of security databases to understand the signatures of GRU intrusion. Imo the man of the year should be Putin. He is a genius and has been planning everything we are seeing for over a decade. Both parties, the media and the American people played right into his hands. The media hasnt been showing the concrete facts that were validated by multiple intelligence agencies and the private sector over the last 4 years. The GRU even hacked my local hospital via Ukraine and made it look like it was a poorly written piece of accounting software. Russia is bad news and should be exposed but in a meaningful way. I agree with you on CNN and others who have gone after Trump rather than the actual perpetrators. At some point I think there will be multiple proxy wars between the west and Russia over the next decade. The intrusions continue. We can hope to avoid a nuclear war somewhere imo.
The goal is to starve the beast until it dies. Trump and Republicans have had this strategy of increasing deficits to get more permanent cuts to government spending but it hasnt worked in states like Kansas because tax cuts never brought in more revenue to offset the loss in revenue from decreased taxes. The irony is most of the increased spending has been in defense. Cut defense spending 50% and the annual deficit is mostly solved.
Hahahahahaha…wait you are serious about this! You really think that they are making it so large that the will eventually have to cut it? NO this is all about the Military-industrial complex, wars on credit cards and rik americans not paying taxes, that’s exactly why they sent the GOP to power.
The American people have underestimated the ability of politicians to slip things through when their attention is diverted. According to projections from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, the new budget means the national debt which now tops $23 trillion will soar to more than $33 trillion in 2028.
A trillion-dollar deficit translates into America spending $3,333 more than it takes in for every man, woman, and child in the country. To clarify, this is each year and every year but also fails to include State and local deficits as well as a slew of “off-book” promises and spending. More on this spending gone wild in the article below.
Balance the Budget,,, that’s a laugh,,, have you guys looked at the numbers…
Defense is around 700 Billion… Deficit over a Trillion…
So you cut defense spending to zip, zero, nothing and you would still have a budget deficit of 300 billion,,,,
Or we could cut Social Security to zero, it’s in the neighborhood of a trillion.
Bonus,,, SS isn’t Constitutional, so it would be the right thing to cut it to zero.
The government would have to return money contributed with interest. If they did that I’m sure a lot of people would be fine with ending SS. Is it ever going to happen? Nope. The defense budget off the books is well over $1T. It never shows up on the books because of shernangigans like Iraq which was only brought onto he books in 2009 after 8 years of war spending.
I agree with BaronAsh. No way to turn the budget deficit especially in a year of election and when economies are soft worldwide.
Furthermore, as for the military budget, Trump must also take into account a certain probability that the perpetual attack of IRAN forces, legally installed in SYRIA, by ISRAEL air force will soon or later trigger a severe reaction from this country towards Israel.
Take also into account that the SYRIAN crude oil smuggling by US occupation forces at the expenses of a miserable civil war torn country, is really a very bad decision that dommage a lot the way USA, the lessons teacher in so called “democracy”, is judged from abroad.
Although I agree with Mish’s basic take here (that Trump is just another big-spending pol like all the rest), for years now I’ve had the feeling that no President can really turn the Big Spending Tanker around, that these things are put into motion by forces deeper and vaster than mere Presidents. Yes, occasionally they have spats about one thing or another and the govt is shut down for a few weeks, but the overall thrust and trajectory hasn’t really changed under any Party’s administration since …….. I don’t know when but at least since WWII.
I don’t buy the idea that government debt is necessary to fund the dollar reserve status, nor the trade deficit. In effect dollar earners invest in securities to maintain a dollar account, so US public debt is just an earner (or lesser losser), the foreign market for which has an effect of lowering its interest. There is no obligation to run higher fiscal deficits to provide a larger supply of treasury paper, this reverse investment of dollars via government makes it cheaper to do so though.
So I am wondering why increase public debt now, either/and/or :
There is a need for economic/financial “stimulus” due to the US economy being on edge still.
Government complex has self interested control of spending.
The president has his own ideas as to what needs to be done.
The US thinks that it must keep the dollar value in line with other countries devaluing (printing)
There was a would be turbulent move to return dollar finance to the US as interests rates were raised.
Anyone can think of others.
?
I don’t know, but the bigger picture transcends US local politics somehow. Question is how much improvisation is going on, or maybe worse, if coordination is in hands outside of our own nations.
In the meantime US registered public debt to GDP
Interesting to see Russia has one of the lowest debt burdens now. I am wondering if the China debt /gdp is accurate?
We’re heading to devaluation, maybe a new federal reserve system and a very long and severe recession, we’ve been at the low interest rate punch bowl forever
“Last night I was so proud to have signed the largest Defense Bill ever. The very vital Space Force was created. New planes, ships, missiles, rockets…”
Eh, a new rocketman?
The best part is, this deficit is probably going to be financed by Euros. How do Euro banks avoid charging customers while living in NIRPvana? Then, to show them, the US will default. There is no other reasonable explanation.
The law of exponents. The law of politics.
A parabolic arc bends up faster and faster until it is running straight up.
What happens to a president who does the right thing? Macron. Everybody is on strike. Couldn’t get elected dogcatcher tomorrow in France.
Pithy 👍
“Experts” (and bullz) never fail to connect TWO dots.
Deficits and GDP. A $trillion deficit is almost 5% (of just under $22 trillion) of GDP …. currently hugging 2% growth. Basic math reveals true state of “real” economy.
In the old days quite a few “experts” would trumpet (pure nonsense since it ignored debt growth in all other sectors) that as long as deficit % was less than GDP growth % all was well. Of course, now that deficit % FAR outstrips GDP growth % … The Sound of Silence from “experts”.
Oh, I get it … once Phase 1, er Phase 2 (Phase 5?) of trade deals passed … Nirvana!
I’m with you Mish. I like many of Trump’s policies but he’s a liar with fiscal responsibility. To be fair, I heard a US House representative say that the vast majority of their constituents don’t care about the deficit. This corresponds to my own conversations with republicans. I get deer in the headlights looks when I bring up our debt.
If we want to place the blame on anyone, it’s on irresponsible citizens who play tribal politics instead of caring about our country. We need a mandatory one year civics class in both high school and college. (Fat chance!)
Mish,
You’re absolutely right.
As a Republican, this is pure and simply fiscal madness and republicans should be calling this out. But, the Republicans (including Trump) are way too busy spending like proverbial drunken sailors…
Democrats have always spent like there’s no tomorrow, so nothing new there…
But the image that Republicans are “fiscally conservative” is total BS and been laid to rest as the fraud that it is… fake news…
John Q. Public can look forward to paying the piper and it’s going to be a big, big bill…. total USD debasement.
It won’t be the Silents or the Boomers paying the piper. It will be Gen X, Y, Z and further. Gen X will pay for the sins of the older generations.
I can see a sharp increase in inheritance taxes in an effort to sweep in “Silents” and Boomers, as well as ‘taxing’ or means testing government benefits so that we appropriately penalize “Silents” and Boomers who saved a dime.
But, yes, the burden will fall on Gen Xers, Millennials, etc. They won’t even understand what happened, i.e., what they missed because life will be harder and economically less rewarding, but they won’t have anything really to compare it to.
The wealth disparity will be much more pronounced – as it already is in Europe. There they have ‘blue-bloods’ who have owned property, etc. for centuries….
Back to a strict ‘caste’ system where moving up and down the economic scale is totally impossible.
This is America’s greatness: Anyone can be at the top of the heap… Sadly, that won’t survive…
You can thank the federal reserve for facilitating this. I believe the socialist/fascist agenda of the Democrats is appealing to those hurt by these policies. This is how communism begins, the middle working class gets screwed over one to many times by the elitist political class bought and paid for by crony capitalists. Once the straw that breaks the camels back is cast the SHTF. The govt deliberately lies about true inflation and little by little the working class’ purchasing power declines until they wake up to whats is being done to them.
Amen! Couldn’t agree more…
” “I think I could do it fairly quickly…I would say over a period of eight years,” Trump added, and suggested he would do so by renegotiating trade deals and creating trade surpluses. “
Public debt is not by nescessity foreign debt, that is to say it could all be owned by Americans. Foreign ownership as reserve currency is only a token needed to play in the dollar circuit. So trade deals and surpluses will not “win back” the public debt, it can be bought back at any time, placing dollars proper in the hands of current owners. The existing public debt will continue to exist until maturity, unless (effectively) monetised. What is possible is to run a balanced budget, and not add more debt, or even use surplus to buy back existing debt and so make its earnings public.
However, public spending is government, you vote for it. Some voters seem to think that everyone else will work for a dollar an hour, that if you stop public spending, the country will reajust to something sensible. It won’t, because this spending is baked into the accounts of millions of people, because the finances which touch nearly the whole population are built around it. Even here, we spend our time talking about it. If you want a sensible readjustment then it has to be by public choice and law change, the alternative is just major upheaval without nescessarily implementing a strict budget in what were to remain of the country. It might go that way anyway I suppose, some will say it needs to, and it is fair to protest the existing framework, but to expect government to reform itself ? Not very likely.
If you do the math I believe that the trillion dollar deficit amounts to about $3000 per capita of borrowed money being pumped into the economy. No wonder things are great. Unfortunately I don’t believe its productive borrowing as the GDP increases less than that per year and so the hole we’re digging gets deeper. Its funny how neither party is addressing this issue. There doesn’t seem to be any adults in the room. Rinse wash and repeat for the rest of the industrialized world, minus Germany. At least they still remember the lessons of the Weimar Republic.
What Republican president hasn’t cut taxes and jacked up the deficit in the last 1/2 century? Isn’t that what Republicanism is all about?
Pretty much.
Can’t think of the last time (Volcker?) an elected / unelected official made a tough decision that had to be made for long term benefit but the masses (stock market) wouldn’t like (initially). EVERY decision is can kick to get thru next election / till retirement / etc.
The main difference between repubs and dems is that the fiscally responsible republicans like to borrow and spend while the dems like to tax and spend. Of the two the latter is more responsible and when people fell it in their paychecks they might get the point better than a civics lesson.
Trump was and is going to run a record deficit. And the national debt will at least double over his 8 years. Anyone who didn’t see this coming regardless of what he said is a fool. The same would be true had Hillary won.
Trump lies and is a jerk, but what people miss about him is he is a genuine jerk. He doesn’t come across as phony like all the democratic candidates do.
The Don is a Business Democrat
always has been – always will be
People choose their politicians the same as they choose their religion – they focus on the parts they like and ignore what they don’t.
Republican politicians follow Trump like he is a cult leader.
But perhaps they should consider what happened to the followers of cult leader Jim Jones. If the Senate Republicans blanket acquit Trump, they might find that they have drunk the same proverbial kool-aid that Jones served. [lol]
“Republican politicians follow Trump like he is a cult leader…”
Really? Are you serious….? That’s a laugh…
Exactly how many democrats criticized Obama for loading a private jet full of cash and sending it to Iran? Answer: EXACTLY ZERO
How many democrats have criticized Biden for ‘bragging on video’ about withholding billions to Ukraine to get a prosecutor fired who was investigating a company where his son was a Board member? Answer: EXACTLY ZERO
The democratic party is a cult: just look at how they excoriated Tulsi Gabbard for saying what she thought was right and refusing to follow their mandates….
The dems demand blind obedience. And, if you don’t stay in line, you’re destroyed. That’s a cult…
Oh my how there are some short sided and forget history people on this board. Obama sent the money back to Iran because it was there money in the first place that we seized during the sanctions. When the sanctions were removed, he moved the money back. Come on man, do you think we just sent them boat loads of money?
With all due respect, you missed the point…
The point was that NO Democrat ever crossed Obama – ever.
The MSM was terrified of crossing Obama…
“Republicans” criticize Trump all the Trump.
The only group demanding blind obedience and silence are the democrats… That’s a cult..
GDP growth is dependent upon an increasing currency supply — that’s a feature of fiat. Currency supply is either growing or shrinking (inflation or deflation respectively). The idea about being fiscally prudent became moot when the government establishment picked inflation after globalist decided manufacturing would be best accomplished elsewhere. As joblessness increased, the government stepped in to borrow in order to create the illusion of growth.
Trump is the latest in a long line of Presidents who speaks with fork tongue. His supporters are mostly people who were left behind. Their blind loyalty is their payback. On the other side, the payback (from Millennials left behind) will be the first communist, ur I mean socialist, Democrat Presidential nominee.
Trump is not a Republican. He is a populist which what was required to be the establishment. Trump has made some positive changes like placing more conservatives in the court and reduced some regulation and taxes. I am not sure the taxes is a positive or a negative. Is he perfect, far from it.
He has definitely has fallen flat on reforms of healthcare, Illegal Aliens, H1B visa abuse to name a few. He called the bubble when he was a candidate and has embraced it as president. He said he liked debt. So debt you get.
All candidate lie to some degree and the electorate accept it. I personally want what is best for the country and my children and grand children. Do I think things would be better under a democrat regime, no they are all communists now.
Do I think that Trump is moving the country in the right financial path, no. The FEDs actions in the Repo market is the idiot light on the countries dashboard.
Wise citizens will avoid the noise of the Republicans and Democrats and prepare for inevitable winter. Remember the old revolutionary flag join, or die. That is about citizens not parties.
Politics have moved beyond the bizarre. Trumps budgets are so crazy, he is vulnerable to some fiscally prudent candidate. Where are the likes of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton today? The moderate wing of the Democrat party is dead. Where are the fiscally prudent Republicans, like Eisenhower? They are also gone.
Have the Baby Boomers and their parent stolen the future from Millennials by running up the debt? Without a doubt. I used to feel sorry for Millennials, but I stopped when I realized that their answer is to spend even more. Now it’s just a matter of time before the debt implodes. I’m sticking to my forecast of ~2036. The party is almost over.
It’s an interesting question, but I don’t think we’ll ever see the great debt implosion. To keep this game going, inequality has to continually widen and all forms of media will be used to keep turning people against each other, which will bring widespread violence before the bankers can totally lose control.
I think we’ve got at least another 5-10 years, so 2036 is possible. The only thing I know for sure is that our societal mood will be hideously ugly by then if this game is still going.
On a serious note: the 2018 CBO report paints the true story that we’re financially screwed. Nobody can save the USA, much less the world, from the coming debt collapse and probable world war. There’s nowhere to hide. A few weeks ago Gundlach said he wants to see how it plays out. Brave guy, sadist, or an idiot?
An old Shelby Township trick called Musical Chairs here in Michigan.
LOL just goes to show the average civics awarness of the fascist mind, once impeached (removed) a president is barred from ever holding any public office again.
It is driving me nuts that the orange monster and EVERYONE else is saying that our “unemployment rate” is 3.5% is the lowest since 1969. That is not true. Steve Santelli on CNBC will verify this. They changed the way we count the unemployed was changed during the Reagan and Clinton and for a TRUE comparison to 1969 youi use the U-6 unemployment rate which for November 2019 is 6.9%. I dare anyone to disprove this.
Personally I think it’s the new norm and will only go higher until the wall is it, wherever that may be I have no idea. Let me know when a fiscally responsible democrat gets back in power and starts sending out multi thousand dollar monthly checks for slavepay etc.
Trump will be the first president to run “officially”…a trillion dollar Monthly deficit…..not once in 2020 but twice.
Perfect. It is all going to plan for the gold bugs. It’s not rocket science. People who don’t ‘get’ where this is going are morons.
Donald Trump is the worst disaster to hit the USA since slavery. Deficit schmeficit, he has corrupted what had been perceived as incorruptible. As a democrat my greatest fear now is not only has he killed what we loved, but he has made the damage irreparable. Mind you there will be a blue wave so huge that the GOP is actually finished. He single handed moved politics so far to the left that not even I can support it. But, it is what it is, and the far right is just going to have to live with their greed and power hungry foolishness.
Take a look at Virginia and the current demorat/gun situation and that’s why I will NEVER vote for a libtard again. Maybe you should worry about how many trillions your god AOC wants to blow? If Trump moves us so far to the left then AOC and all her followers must be in another universe.
What exactly has he done that is equivalent to slavery?? Being an annoying narcissistic asshole is as bad a slavery?? What policies are you referring to or is he just bad because you are a democratic sycophant drinking their fascist ideology. . Your are the perfect eg of a hysterical libtard with TDS.
I would agree that Trump has moved “Republicans” to the middle of the former Democrat spectrum, and destroyed the far right, and simultaneously pushed Democrats over into the Socialistic realm. However, the shift is so bizarre, I can’t begin to guess what happens next. Is he so unlikable that a Socialist will get elected? Perhaps. Will the Democrat party have shifted so far to the left that their coalition is destroyed and they have become unelectable (once Trump is out of the picture)? Also possible.
I’m not a Trump fan, but what you wrote is absurd.
“How I learned to stop worrying and love the deficit.”
Slim Pickens from here on out …
It’s a cult. Dear leader can do no wrong.
People don’t want to admit that Trump is just another politician. He should be called out for adding so much debt, but we all know Hillary or any of his major 2016 red team opponents would have done the same. It’s a broken system.
Accusations of TDS will probably pour in because I’ve noticed a marked increase in 4D chess belief recently. I don’t know whether it’s the impeachment drama or ramping up for an election year, but once again the argument has shifted from Trump being a lesser evil to being the embodiment of unblemished perfection. Apparently the remaining Q-tards are determined to be gluttons for punishment to the bitter end.
He’s supposed to be ‘directionally correct’ when lying…