Retail Sales in November Unexpectedly Slow, Well Under the Rate of Inflation

Advance Sales Details 

  • Advance Estimates of retail and food services sales for November 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $639.8 billion.
  • Sales rose 0.3 percent from the previous month, and 18.2 percent above November 2020. 
  • Total sales for the September 2021 through November 2021 period were up 16.2 percent from the same period a year ago. 
  • The September 2021 to October 2021 percent change was revised from up 1.7 percent to up 1.8 percent. 
  • Retail trade sales were up 0.2 percent from October 2021, and up 16.1 percent above last year. 
  • Gasoline stations were up 52.3 percent from November 2020, while food services and drinking places were up 37.4 percent from last year.  

Econoday Consensus Estimates

  • Overall: 0.8% Expected vs 0.3% Actual
  • Excluding Vehicles: 0.9% Expected vs 0.3% Actual
  • Excluding Vehicles and Gas: 0.8% expected vs 0.2% Actual

Real Sales Decline

Real sales (subtracting the rate of inflation) fell 0.5% in November. 

Economists expected sales would keep up with inflation. Instead, consumers threw in the towel. 

Not even Amazon is doing well judging by flat non-store sales.

Have the stimulus checks finally run out or are consumers suddenly balking at prices?

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RonJ
RonJ
2 years ago
“Economists expected sales would keep up with inflation. Instead, consumers threw in the towel.”
As Mish noted, wages aren’t keeping up with inflation. Come to think of it, towels are more expensive, too. Some consumers can’t afford to throw one in.
jfpersona1
jfpersona1
2 years ago
Reply to  RonJ
– ‘Let them use washcloths’
Captain Ahab
Captain Ahab
2 years ago
Covid pent-up demand is possibly fading–confused  by holiday buying, supply bottlenecks, and inflation expectations. January sales will be the ‘kicker’, IMHO.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
2 years ago
Hawkish FOMC good for $US.  One story for 2022 will be its strength … causing much consternation offshore.
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
2 years ago
Reply to  Tony Bennett
What do you think would happen to the dollar if they raise rates 3 times? Not to mention US equities? 
StukiMoi
StukiMoi
2 years ago
Reply to  Eddie_T
“What do you think would happen to the dollar if they raise rates 3 times? Not to mention US equities?”
They’ll both benefit.
Being closer to correctly priced, as in less misprized, is always a benefit. And the free market, non manipulated, hence correct, hence what the economy now needs, interest rate in an era with as much uncertainty as now, is a lot closer to 15% than 0%.
Hence, the closer we get to 15%, the better things will be. For absolutely all things interest sensitive.
Only the truly dumb and clueless, cling to such trivially obvious idiocies as dead wrong somehow being preferred over more correct.
Tony Bennett
Tony Bennett
2 years ago
“Have the stimulus checks finally run out or are consumers suddenly balking at prices?”
Yes.
Need to add front running holiday sales.  Earlier, I noted that since Labor Day MSM banging “better buy it now or it won’t be there later” drum re gifts.  Gave prop to September + October sales … at expense of November + December.
KidHorn
KidHorn
2 years ago
When rent goes up 10%, people have less money to spend on retail.
Jackula
Jackula
2 years ago
Reply to  KidHorn
Try 17%
Eddie_T
Eddie_T
2 years ago
There see! Inflation WAS transitory…..it’s just that at the new higher price level everything costs twice as much.
But the RATE is down. Far out.

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