The Census Department Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services report shows seasonally-adjusted retail and food services sales for September 2017,were $483.9 billion, an increase of 1.6 percent from August. The hurricane Impacts are noticeable.

Percentage Gains From August

  • Retail trade sales rose 1.7 percent
  • Motor vehicles rose 3.6%
  • Building materials rose 2.1%
  • Gasoline rose 5.8%

In contrast, electronics, health care, sporting good and hobbies, department stores, and miscellaneous retailers were all lower.

Continuing the trend towards online shopping, nonstore retailers rose 0.5%

GDP Impact?

A separate census report shows Inventories also rose today. Thus, on the surface, it may look like a big boost to GDP is coming.

However, Income was lost. Stores in impacted areas were closed.


I am also unsure what happens to the valuation of change in private inventories (CIPI). Inventories were destroyed and replaced. It's a crap shoot how the BEA will calculate the impact on inventories.

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William Dudley, New York Fed president, says Hurricane Effect to Provide Long Run Benefit.

Dudley is wrong. Hurricanes are not good for the economy. If they were, Puerto Rico would be a bastion of strength.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

PPI Jumps Due To Hurricane Energy Impact

The Producer Price Index for final demand advanced 0.4 percent in September, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices moved up 0.2 percent in August and edged down 0.1 percent in July.

Retail Sales Moderate, Still Show Huge Hurricane Impacts, Especially Autos

October retail sales rose 0.2% following a revised 1.9% gain in September, up from 1.6%. Autos continued to surge up 0.7% from September's 4.6% rise. Excluding autos, sales rose only 0.1%

Core Group Retail Sales Jump 0.9% in Nov vs 0.2% Overall: Hurricane Distortions?

Retail sales only increased by 0.2% in Nov. but control group sales which exclude gas and autos jumped 0.9%.

Retail Sales Weaker Than Expected, July Revised Up, Large Y-o-Y Amazon Impact

Retail sales only rose 0.1% in Aug, but July was revised from +0.5% to +0.7%. Amazon impact stands out year-over-year.

Wholesale Inventories Flat, Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Shows Hurricane Impacts

The Census Bureau reported wholesale inventories were flat in October. The bureau revised September from +0.7% to +0.6%. Hurricane impacts distorted the numbers, as well as mainstream media analysis of the numbers.

Investigating Amazon’s Impact on Retail Sales Growth

The latest retail sales report from the Census Department offers a fascinating look at Amazon’s impact on retailers if you dive into the details.

Wholesale and Retail Inventories Jump, Trade Deficit Improves Slightly: GDP and Hurricane Impact?

The Census Bureau’s Advance Economic Indicators show a slight improvement in exports and rising retail and wholesale inventories.

Retail Sales Dive, Negative Revisions Too: GDP Impact 4th and 1st Qtr

Retail sales fell 0.3% vs expectations of a 0.3% gain. December's 0.4% gain was taken back entirely.

Australia's Housing Bust Impacts Retail Sales, Recession Coming Up

Australia's housing bust now impacting retail sales. Except for food, retail spending has been negative for 3 months.