Retail Sales Moderate, Still Show Huge Hurricane Impacts, Especially Autos


October retail sales rose 0.2% following a revised 1.9% gain in September, up from 1.6%. Autos continued to surge up 0.7% from September's 4.6% rise. Excluding autos, sales rose only 0.1%

Retail Sales Changes by Type of Business

Image placeholder title

Charts from Census Department, highlights and callouts mine.

Hurricane effects have distorted both month-over-month and year-over-year comparisons.

Hurricane effects have also distorted ISM and other regional manufacturing reports due to auto impacts. The regional reports and the ISM numbers were already wildly high vs actual output even before the hurricanes.

Month-over-month comparisons will likely show distortions for several more months. Year-over-year comparisons will be messed up for at least another year.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock


Global Economics