Initial Reaction

The consensus estimate was 180,000 jobs. The ADP estimate was 230,000, and based on ISM reports, I saw talk of 300,000.

Today’s establishment survey shows jobs rose by 134,000 with only 121,000 private jobs.

The hype would have been laughable except for positive revisions.

Job Revisions

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up from +147,000 to +165,000, and the change for August was revised up from +201,000 to +270,000.

Let’s dive into the details in the BLS Employment Situation Summary, unofficially called the Jobs Report.

BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

  • Nonfarm Payroll: +134,000 – Establishment Survey
  • Employment: +420,000 – Household Survey
  • Unemployment: -270,000 – Household Survey
  • Involuntary Part-Time Work: +263,000 – Household Survey
  • Voluntary Part-Time Work: -317,000 – Household Survey
  • Baseline Unemployment Rate: -0.2 to 3.7% – Household Survey
  • U-6 unemployment: +0.1 to 7.5% – Household Survey
  • Civilian Non-institutional Population: +224,000
  • Civilian Labor Force: +150,000 – Household Survey
  • Not in Labor Force: +70,000 – Household Survey
  • Participation Rate: flat at 62.7– Household Survey

Divergences

Last month employment as measured by the household survey fell by 423,000. This month it rose by 420,000. The two-month total is still negative.

Employment Report Statement

The unemployment rate declined to 3.7 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

Unemployment Rate – Seasonally Adjusted

Image placeholder title

The above Unemployment Rate Chart is from the BLS. Click on the link for an interactive chart.

Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type

Image placeholder title

Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month

Image placeholder title

Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees was flat at 34.5 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.3 hours. Average weekly hours of manufacturers fell 0.1 hour at 38.9 hours.

Average Hourly Earnings of All Nonfarm Workers rose .08 to $27.24. That a 0.29% gain. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.08 to $26.97, a gain of 0.37%. Average hourly earnings of manufacturers was flat at $27.07, a gain of 0.00%.

RECOMMENDED ARTICLES

Average hourly earnings of Production and Supervisory Workers rose $0.06 to $22.81. That's a 0.26% gain. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.06 to $22.54, a gain of 0.27%. Average hourly earnings of manufacturers rose $0.04 to $21.57, a gain of 0.19%

Year-Over-Year Wage Growth

  • All Private Nonfarm from $26.51 to $27.24, a gain of 2.8%
  • All production and supervisory from $22.20 to $22.81, a gain of 2.7%.

Wage inflation remains benign.

For a discussion of income distribution, please see What’s “Really” Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

Birth Death Model

Starting January 2014, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I retain this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will comment further.

Table 15 BLS Alternative Measures of Unemployment

Image placeholder title

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said “better” approximation not to be confused with “good” approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 3.7%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 7.5%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Some of those dropping out of the labor force retired because they wanted to retire. The rest is disability fraud, forced retirement, discouraged workers, and kids moving back home because they cannot find a job.

Strength is Relative

It’s important to put the jobs numbers into proper perspective.

  1. In the household survey, if you work as little as 1 hour a week, even selling trinkets on eBay, you are considered employed.
  2. In the household survey, if you work three part-time jobs, 12 hours each, the BLS considers you a full-time employee.
  3. In the payroll survey, three part-time jobs count as three jobs. The BLS attempts to factor this in, but they do not weed out duplicate Social Security numbers. The potential for double-counting jobs in the payroll survey is large.

Household Survey vs. Payroll Survey

The payroll survey (sometimes called the establishment survey) is the headline jobs number, generally released the first Friday of every month. It is based on employer reporting.

The household survey is a phone survey conducted by the BLS. It measures unemployment and many other factors.

If you work one hour, you are employed. If you don’t have a job and fail to look for one, you are not considered unemployed, rather, you drop out of the labor force.

Looking for jobs on Monster does not count as “looking for a job”. You need an actual interview or send out a resume.

These distortions artificially lower the unemployment rate, artificially boost full-time employment, and artificially increase the payroll jobs report every month.

Final Thoughts

Despite the alleged robust jobs picture, wage growth has been anemic. Wages have not kept up with inflation, especially for those in school, those seeking to buy a home, and those who buy their own health insurance.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Jobs +75,000 vs Employment +113,000: Revisions -75,000

Jobs missed expectations by a mile but were well above the ADP forecast of +27,000. Revisions took the gain away.

Jobs Rise 225,000 But Employment Fell by 89,000

The BLS reports jobs rose by 225,000 in January but the manufacturing recession continues.

Shocking Fact in Today’s Job Report: Employment Stalls

Initial Reaction Today’s employment report shows a robust increase of 227,000 jobs. The good news stops there. The rest of the report was horrific.

Solid Jobs Report but Divergence Between Jobs and Employment is Still Strong

Today’s employment report shows a robust increase of 235,000 jobs. And for the first time in many months, the rest of the report was good as well.

Another Wild Jobs Report: Payroll Employment Rose a Disappointing 20,000

The BLS gave us another wild jobs report. Unemployment fell to a new low for the cycle but the jobs gain was only 20K.

Jobs Report Badly Misses Estimates: 130,000 Jobs with Only 96,000 Private Jobs

The jobs report dramatically missed expectations today, especially with private jobs.

Discrepancy Between Jobs and Employment Persists: Expect More Negative Revisions

The BLS revised away 75,000 jobs in April and May. The discrepancy between jobs and employment is still massive.

Job Report: Weak Earnings, Unemployment Rate Up, Upward Revisions

Job growth was a modest 128,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6%. Revisions added 95,000.

Examining the Discrepancy Between Jobs and Employment

In the past year, the BLS says the number of jobs rose by 2.62 million. Employment rose by 1.429 million.