“History is on our side. There have been 13 Fed tightening cycles since 1950. Ten of these landed the economy in recession, and neither the consensus nor the Fed staff saw them coming when they actually started. So before knowing anything else, the fact that we have been in the midst of a Fed tightening phase sends recession odds north of 80%.”

A friend sent that quote and it rings true in this corner as noted in Powell Promises Patience: So What? It Doesn't Matter

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Rosenberg's Call: Recession, Rising Inflation, Cooling Commodities, S&P 500 Top

Rosenberg's odd stagflation scenario is a recession in 12 months, with rising inflation, but cooling commodities.

Coincident Economic Indicators: History Suggests Recession is Close

The Philadelphia Fed's coincident economic activity index suggests the economy is close to recession.

Recession Arithmetic: What Would It Take?

David Rosenberg explores Recession Arithmetic in today's Breakfast With Dave. I add a few charts of my own to discuss.

On Average, How Long From Inversion to Recession?

Let's take a look at the last six recession. How long did it take from inversion to recession?

Hussman Sides with Powell: It's Not QE4

A debate over a sudden dramatic surge in Repos is raging. Is it or isn't it QE4?

Housing Consistent With a Recession in 2020

Over the past year, 4 housing indicators have moved in ways consistent with patterns seen in 3 previous recessions.

Rosenberg Says Buy Gold, Buy Oil, Buy Commodities

Economist David Rosenberg expects the US dollar to fall. His Recommendation is to buy commodities

Recession Probability Charts: Current Odds About 33%

The New York Fed has the odds of a recession within the next year at 33%. Some of the other models are humorous.

Setser vs Rosenberg: China's "Nuclear" Option of Dumping Treasuries

Brad Setser and David Rosenberg each discuss the "nuclear" option of China dumping treasuries in a trade war escalation.