That image of the dollar index is relative to June 2001. This is the chart I use.

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Technically Speaking

Technically speaking there is no support until 80 or so. That appears to be what Rosenberg is talking about.

Fundamentally Speaking

I believe expected rate hikes will not happen. Moreover, the US deficit is out of control and worsening. This is dollar negative.

However, widely expected ECB rate hikes and tapering are also unlikely. This is Euro negative (dollar positive).

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Unlike Rosenberg, I suggest: Forget oil, buy gold.

Why?

Oil is an industrial commodity and the global economy is weakening. We may be in late stage inflation similar to the surge that took oil to $140 in 2008.

Globally, if central banks fail to meet hiking expectations, gold rates to be a beneficiary regardless of what the economy does.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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