From the North (Iraq or Iran) or the South (Yemen)?
Saudi, U.S. officials are investigating possibility that cruise missiles fired from Iraq or Iran hit the Saudi petroleum facilities.
What about Israel or Lebanon?
Cruise Missiles or Drones?
As the rush to judgement unfolds, a huge number of questions go unanswered.
No one knows yet if the attack came from the North or the South or whether it was by drone or by cruise missile.
Suspicions Rise That Saudi Oil Attack Came From Outside Yemen
Please consider Suspicions Rise That Saudi Oil Attack Came From Outside Yemen
Saudi and American officials are investigating the possibility that attacks on Saudi oil facilities Saturday involved cruise missiles launched from Iraq or Iran, questioning Yemeni rebel claims of responsibility, people familiar with the matter said.
Leaders of the Houthis, the Yemeni rebels whom Saudi Arabia is trying to dislodge from the country’s capital, claimed they sent a squad of drones hundreds of miles into the heart of Saudi Arabia to carry out coordinated attacks on two of the country’s vital energy sites. If true, the attacks marked the most effective and far-reaching drone strikes carried out by outgunned Houthi forces in neighboring Yemen.
But officials around the globe investigating the attack questioned the Houthi claims and suggested the strike may have come from Iraq or Iran, to the north, rather than Yemen, to the south. Iran supports a host of Shiite militias in Iraq.
The Saudi Interior Ministry said Saturday that the facilities were hit by a drone attack, an account confirmed by people familiar with the strikes. But Persian Gulf officials said experts were examining the possibility that the attackers used cruise missiles, either instead of or along with drones.
A strike on Saudi facilities from Iraq isn’t without recent precedent. Earlier this summer, U.S. officials concluded that a May 14 drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s pipeline was launched from Iraq, not Yemen.
And the use of cruise missiles rather than drones would suggest an escalation in the conflict beyond drones. In recent months, Houthi forces have used a new type of cruise missile to hit Saudi Arabia at least three times, according to people familiar with the investigation.
Supply Risk
The Drone Attack On Saudi Arabia. Less Supply Risk Than Many Think.#OOTT #DroneAttacks #SaudiArabia oil #Brent #WTIhttps://t.co/jh9jl7qtcq pic.twitter.com/thMNq5IIAy
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) September 15, 2019
Conflicting Reports of Production Restoration
Could Be “Weeks” Before Aramco Restores Full Production Capacity As Specter Of $100 Oil Looms https://t.co/DvUAa3B6yc
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 15, 2019
Saudi Officials Say Oil Production to Return to Normal Levels by Monday – WSJ Recovery happens fast (apparently) @chigrl ??? https://t.co/yfh4tvqeE4
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) September 15, 2019
12 hours ago the Saudis were going to restore all lost production to” normal levels” by Monday.
Now they are targeting restoring one-third of the 5.7 million of lost production by Monday.
Check back after the late football games for another update.https://t.co/gUzAno7zDk
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) September 15, 2019
No Doubt
*U.S. OFFICIAL: NO DOUBT IRAN WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR SAUDI ATTACK
*OFFICIAL: SAUDI ATTACK WAS ON ENTIRE WORLD’S ENERGY SECURITY
*U.S. OFFICIAL: NO FIRM EVIDENCE SAUDI ATTACK LAUNCHED EX-YEMEN
*U.S OFFICIAL SAYS ATTACK MAY HAVE INVOLVED CRUISE MISSILES— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 15, 2019
I have no doubts either.
But my position is a bit different. I have no doubt this is another rush to judgment.
Three Birds With One Strike
Israel certainly has the most to gain from this. Three birds with one strike:
- Saudi Oil Production Hit
- Iran Blamed
- Weapons to Saudi Arabia to Fight Yemen
I do not rule out anything, including an attack from or sponsored by Israel, Iran, Iraq, or Yemen.
I do not suggest Israel did this, only that Israel had the most to gain regardless of who is directly responsible.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
as reference your cover story regarding attack on saudi arabia either from iran, iraq or yeman by hoties. My opinion is very clear about this incident due to history of middle east. The America is very behind either he can use to Israel, Iran, Iraq or Yamen. The America and Israel never ever attack on Iran but they use its name for wealth of Saudi’s and other Arab (small) countries by threatening of Iran but do not take any action against him. They are internally on same page. He attacked iraq but iran was threat, same as libya but did not on iran. And now they will support to sirya because presence of iran.
I think Israeli Mossad arranged this attack. They want America to bomb Iran.
Jamal Kashoggi murdered in Istanbul by Saudi specialists…then they lied about it for months when confronted…#Lookdeeper – like 911 there are smoke and mirrors all around us😣
Mish, this begs an explanation. Could you please? (Or, it is baseless).
Thoughts:
“most” is a question of value judgement. Seems rather subjective in the post.
For example:
Iran might gain due to weakening Saudi.
Any Shia regime/org might gain (bc Saudi is a Suni dominated power).
Saudi has a large unhappy Shia minority. They arguably gain.
Any party threatened by Iran might possibly gain (if one buys into the “false flag” narrative). Israel is only one of them. Most are Suni countries and orgs.
China might gain a foothold due to the mess. Isn’t that “most”?
Major oil suppliers gain from oil prices increase. This could be “most”, too. Isn’t it? 🙂
Etc.
The attack seems to have huge negative ramifications. This rules out false-flags by any regime/org that might worry of whiplash. Doesn’t this reduce the odds Israel is involved?
This was an inside job by someone or some entity that has a Saudi/Aramaco connection. No way a state actor sent [UNDETECTED] drones or missiles 500-1000miles through Saudi airspace and/or over the Persian Gulf fleet withone Saudi’s seeing it.
Saudi’s were worried about US-Iran relations warming. They’ve seen crude price fall 20% in their face since earlier this year despite talking cuts for over a year now, so they were done with the talk; they needed action. If they have to suffer a few weeks of production loss, they accomplish three things: 1) higher immediate flat prices; 2) long-term $10-15 new risk premium factored into the crude markets going forward; 3) renewed American aggression/suspicion of Iran.
Trump/Pompeo are both dumb enough to play along.
Mission accomplished, right.
One thing that comes to mind, the calls in the US house and senate to put the breaks on arms sales to SA will now temporarily be silenced, or toned down to the point where they are no longer a credible threat to the purchases.
US should be on the list of potential attackers. Popular wars win elections. The ban on Iran oil exports isn’t working well enough. Iran accelerating nuclear weapon development. Attack Saudi infrastructure to justify US escalations against Iran.
Check the debris of the drones/cruise missiles/guidance systems for Chinese fingerprints. Drones of some levels of sophistication are in most countries’ arsenals these days. Doubtful the Houtis’. But, the capability of multiple, simultaneous very precise strikes against these targets takes highly developed systems. These are designed and produced in just a few countries (US, Russia, China) for sure, probably S Korea and Japan. Who has the most to gain from stretching Trump to make a foolish move? One could say it’s the Russians who will benefit from higher crude prices. But, China and Iran have become fast friends and China is funding Iran and the IRGC against the American sanctions. Also, China has accumulated a 650 day oil reserve. Hedged against a supply disruption out of S.A. as they are S.A.’s largest customer, buying 25% of S.A.’s daily production.
My guess is the CIA is involved.
Maybe Netanyahu has his hand somewhere in this mess? He is certainly desperate right now. Look at Bush in 1991.
Somebody really wants the US to launch a war against Iran. Iran certainly does not want such a war. Thus Iran cannot be behind this bombing.
On the face of it, Iran has a great deal to lose and little to gain, unless the government there wants the people to rally behind them. But is that really necessary for them at this point? Seems to me like every possible suspect has more to lose than to gain unless they’re 100% sure they can’t be traced and the Houthis take the rap. Unfortunately, Putin is not America’s best pal, but WWIII can’t be on his agenda and he must know Russia would get its ass kicked in a ME proxy war. This isn’t the late 60s.
If Israel is convinced that the US would allow itself to be dragged into a war on their side then I suppose there’s a chance they’d profit but both counts: the US carrying their water and them getting away with just a few scrapes, look pretty chancy to me. Little to gain, much to lose.
A major question: is this an attack on SA, or the West, or both. True, any combination is possible but which one it is is the $64 question.
Fair statements except: The suspect part of your analysis is that the Houthis don’t have the technology for this and are Iranian proxies, so even if they got their hands on the level of technology that could pull off such an attack it would only be because Iran allowed it. As proxies of Iran the Houthis may have gotten there masers in Tehran into deep shit, but Iran was stirring the shit for a long time and would be rightly blamed if the attack did come from the Houthis, because when you trace it back they did not do it, their masters allowed it to be done.
There have been a lot of recriminations and finger pointing here, what facts we do know mean we have to go suspect by suspect and decide how they would have risked such a misadventure, because as far as all out major war in the ME goes we just got to the closest point we have ever been, SOMEONE is playing a very high stakes game, so settling for statements like the Israelis have the most to gain is not working for me at this point. Someone has a motive that exceeds any we have seen before.
It shouldn’t be too difficult for the people working in those oilfields to determine the direction from which the missiles or the bombs came from. The fact that the Saudis still have not published the direction smell intensive discussions/ coordinations and calculations behind the scene. The neo-cons and warmongers are probably very busy now (after Bolton’s departure)
Can’t cruise missiles or drones come in from any direction? That is to say, just because you saw them coming in from the east that doesn’t mean they were launched from that direction. Unless the US had a spy satellite looking specifically at the SA oil facilities (why should they?) it might be quite difficult to tell where the attack came from.
Another question: are there drone big enough and fast enough to do this sort of destruction? You can’t fly a drone within 25 miles of the White House which, based on the all the drones I’ve ever seen, is rather paranoid. This sounds to me like a very capable cruise missile attack. Who has those, or the ability to get and launch them? Does Iran have it?
Not only does Iran have such weapons they are a client state of the Russians who have them, even if manufacture was not in Cheboksary or Rostov-on-Don the tech can be transferred along with the software suite in a matter of minutes. Remember that it could even have been an American or other foreign drone/cruise weapon under Iranian control, they have in the past demonstrated the ability to seize control of our weapons systems in the ME. We have had years to put in place safeguards against that, they have had years to perfect their military hardware piracy.
US officials are as reliable as CNN
Aren’t they the same thing?
Cui bono? Clearly this is a publicity stunt by the federated drone manufacturers…
What a bunch of speculation and imputed motives in all this speculation. Virtually nothing is known, and there is every chance that this will remain. Convincing and verifiable evidence may yet be presented, but don’t count on it.
Ah so we are all to be strung up now for the crime of speculating about who blew up the oil facilities in SA thereby costing every one of us a butt-ton of money in higher fuel prices eh? Especially since none of that speculation is to your liking because it mostly gores your ox.
Stupidest Comment of the Day, perhaps Year
“Why Israel? Why not Germany? Why not Martians. If you have an accusation you need basis, otherwise you are spreading hate.”
When you overstate your case, you look like an ass
Don’t flog the commenters. As an experienced hothead, I can assure you it won’t help them, but it will hurt you. None of those following your blog need be told that Germans and Martians are probably not behind this.
Regards.
It was Professor Plum, in the reading room, with the candlestick.
Professor Plum hates oil companies, and was triggered when the Saudi Crown Prince used a gender specific pronoun and violated his safe space.
CB, as usual you have a marvelous sense of humor. But, you did remind me, what did we read in the news just a couple days before the attacks? On the 8th of September SA announced that Saudi Arabia replaces oil minister with Prince Abdulaziz. Six days later SA’s major oil facilities are attacked.
“The move comes as Brent crude oil trades under $60 a barrel, well below the $80-$85 range that analysts say is needed to balance the Saudi budget.”
“Mills said Prince Abdulaziz will likely maintain the deal al-Falih struck with global oil producers to cut production, and not be able to increase them given the current market conditions.”
The attack came from the UAW and anti-oil groups… they need to artificially create demand for the garbage pickup trucks Government Motors makes but can’t sell
How would that work?
It wouldn’t. But neither does anything else in our progressive dumb-age, so why not?
Its just as silly, unrealistic and implausible as the other nonsense comments here
Started with some pie in the sky nonsense about electric cars and it went downhill from there
Go ahead Childman Trump, be bipolar emotionally contemptuous – send us down a rabbit hole and help ensure your 2020 loss.
Underestimating your opponent is the greatest danger. – Lao Tzu
Trump acts like a buffoon, but we should prepare as if he is not. It’s how he won in 2016.
Even if it was Iran why would the onus be on the United States to strike? Saudi Arabia was attacked, not us, and they are perfectly capable of defending themselves.
Because they trade oil in USD, buy a lot of weapons from us and buy and hold a lot of US debt. They can threaten to become allied with Russia and hand the whole ME to them.
That fishy smell is in the argument that SA can align with Russia as a threat to make sure western powers remain in thrall to the power of the petrodollar. Russia is already past the point of no return in it’s support of Tehran.
OMG, Trump is rushing judgement on this faster than we (WRONGLY!) did so on Iraq on 9/11. What gets me is Trump saying ‘depending on who the Saudi’s say”! CRAP! As Iran is the Saudi’s nemesis that’s like asking ‘if the ski is blue’. WT#, ZERO discretion exhibited by Sr US Officials and Trump.
@realDonaldTrump
Donald J. Trump
✔
Saudi Arabia oil supply was attacked. There is reason to believe that we know the culprit, are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the Kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack, and under what terms we would proceed!
18.4K
5:50 PM – Sep 15, 2019
I totally agree with your sentiment. I dont want to see wat at all. But I disagree with the analogy. There was some talk about Iraq and association with the terrorists, but the rush to judgement w/r/t 9/11 was about Al Queda and Afghanistan.
The rush to judgement on Iraq was years later and centered on WMDs. And was likely not a rush to judgement at all, but cover for the invasion that Bolton and the neo cons had wanted for decade(s).
The brain behind this attack is the neo-cons like Bolton, who can no longer tolerate Trump’s unwillingness to start new wars
There are too many fail safes in the American military structure for neocon’s like Bolton to do this level of false flag. I was in the military (SAC) and know that any attempt would be just impossible. They might be big on theorizing and keyboarding their opinions, even issuing veiled threats, but actual mutiny and seizure of the weapons to pull it off just can’t happen. Only Hollywood can make that happen. Though, now that I think about it, our dependence upon private contractors like Erik Prince would tend to argue in favor of your theory. But still, it would amount to a crime so infamous and so dangerous that no sane person would do it without being entirely certain they could get away with it even if they were identified as the criminal. If that is true then we have already lost.
I’m not sure I’d include Iran in your list of beneficiaries. It’s hardly a secret that Iran would like to capture Abqaiq and the entire eastern side of Saudi Arabia. The region is home not only to SA’s entire supply of crude but also a sizable population of Iran-friendly Shia. But Iran won’t take a strike at SA until it is capable of winning the war.
Iran has strength on the ground but no way to move that strength into position. SA has an airforce capable of pummeling Tehran — at least they have nice airplanes if not the pilots to capably of flying them in combat. I think it’s five years minimum before Iran is capable of fighting SA on terms that might bring them victory.
I think the unmentioned beneficiary is SA themselves. They have no qualms about production cuts if such cuts bring about higher prices. If they can suck the US into war with Iran, my five year timeline for Iranian war preparation goes out the window.
That is fair enough Seanot; Iran would like to turn the Persian Gulf into an Iranian salt water lake, and as you point out they would not dare go too far because they can’t win an all out war involving a global coalition against the US and western powers in coalition.
Yet as I keep pointing out, SOMEONE has done what till now was pretty unthinkable, attacked SA’s major oil facilities and disrupted both supply and price. Going forward we can no longer have faith the oil will keep flowing. And this is on top of several other provocative attacks on oil shipping in recent months that Iran has taken responsibility for because they cannot deny that the attacks came from their own territory.
The key point in your argument is that Iran is not yet ready to fight SA on terms that would bring them victory, even as Assad is on the verge of gaining total control over Syria and wiping out all resistance with Russian help. Russia has not been twiddling their thumbs over the years there, they have been cementing their presence right in the heart of the ME, Russian troops can see among other things Israel from Damascus.
Please ask yourself what factor would shorten that five year window you mention till Iran feels confident enough to attack brazenly and temp a war with SA and western allies? I can think of two things that alone would be enough, but together would signal Iran is more than ready. One would be possession of nuclear weapons, something it has been working towards for a long time, and for a couple years has not been restricted by a nuclear agreement that was not hindering them anyway, and the other would be a Russian guarantee of alliance that would in effect put Iran under Russia’s nuclear umbrella. Enough Russian troops on the ground inside Iran that any retaliation for attacks like this would be sure to kill at least some Russians. That would mean that it would not be just a ME war but the start of a world war, something Russia and Iran know the west will not do without years of preparations.
Who stands to gain?China,they want those oilfields,could this be a dry run before Iran/China/Iraq/Russian full invasion to seize the fields?Trump will pay his usual lip service but the Sauds know they’re on their own and no ones got there back plus they’re surrounded…..just a matter of time!
Hmmm….
“DUBAI (Reuters) – The attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities on Saturday that has threatened global oil supplies came from the direction of Iran, and cruise missiles may have been used, according to a senior U.S. official.”
If the “unnamed” official really believes his BS, then he better run for the hills: the path from Iran directly crosses Bahrain, the home of the US 5th fleet in the gulf.
Whenever a media pundit starts quoting “a senior U.S. official”, you know they just made the quote up themselves.
If they say its a government official who will “remain anonymous because they are not authorized to speak on the matter”, that means it was some low level bureaucrat who wanted to sound important but doesn’t actually know anything.
If a Congress member speaks, they are either peacocking for the next election or just shooting their mouth off, but either way they don’t know anything more than what they read in the media quoting the low level bureaucrat.
Anyone who does know anything does not want to be misquoted so they are staying the hell away from media pundits. CNN is perfectly capable of writing fiction by themselves
It’s obvious who sent those drones/missiles:
Iraq of course.
Just ask Carl Rove. He can retell that story he told crowds, that Saddam had a secret hidden huge naval arcade deep in the Indian Ocean no one know about or see on radar or any other way, that Saddam was going to use to fight us over here instead of over there.
The real story is that in the area highly protected with latest weaponry and on alert, no one seems to ascertain where the attack originated from.
The rush to judgment we saw from Graham, Pompeo, and others is no accident. The whole thing looks suspect just after Bolton’s departure, when Trump signaled he does not want war with Iran. There is a coordinated effort underway to disabuse Trump of this position.
I know some people get annoyed with open skepticism of the US or Israel, but sorry, they’ve earned it by lying far too much over the years. Whenever an attack like this happens and government officials make a beeline toward the nearest microphones, “cui bono?” should be our first question.
U.S. would be most unhappy with Israel doing that . NYT had excellent Sunday Magazine article on Sept. 8 on U.S./Israeli policy debates in regards to Iranian threat.
Why would Israel be interested in hitting Saudi Oil Production? Saudi Arabia can buy all the weapons that it wants around the world. It does not need Israeli weapons, and would be loathe to associate with Israel other than in dire circumstances.
The Israelis and Saudis get along far better than their lack of diplomatic relations would suggest. Furthermore, they are the USA’s two best friends in the world.
If this refinery strike starts a US-led war with Iran, Israel benefits greatly. They have advocated for a war against Iran for many years, and US-based neocons, who have great affinity for Israel, have done the same.
“NYT excellent Sunday Magazine article…”
ROFLMAO….
Sure, if the NYT prints it, it must be true….
The fact that you bother to read their garbage speaks volumes.
What are you recommending: Breitbart or Pravda. The editorial section has been blending into the national news but foreign news and business news is still excellent. Read WSJ and Economists and also books on history, economics, and geography. Pray tell what your sources are?
What are your sources? Breitbart and Pravda. Editorial comment on NYT blends into the front page too often, but foreign news and business news is still high quality, but then critical thinking is necessary in all media. Also read Economist and Wall Street Journal and Foreign Policy with books on history, economics, and geography. Pray tell what are your sources?
Iranian proxies in Syria; Lebanon; Yemen; Iraq; and Palestine all threaten Israel. The peace of the region is pretty much dependent upon stopping the Iranians from establishing the Caliphate they have long been working towards, a Shia anti Israeli empire spanning the whole Muslim world. “Followers of Shia Islam, however, believe a caliph should be an Imam chosen by God from the Ahl al-Bayt (the “Family of the House”, Muhammad’s direct descendants).”
Of course many believe that the appeal to Islamic youth of Caliphate is what Iran wants, not the actual restoration of the Muhammadan Blood line as ruler, even if that blood line were resurrected the Caliph would be Iran’s puppet. If you can capture the imagination of a nations youth you capture that nation eventually.
The one thing that Iran wants above all else is the destruction of Israel. Complete annihilation of the Jews and their nation. I can hardly blame the Israelis for fighting back, for them it is a matter of survival.
As it relates to the attack on the oil fields in SA, the arguments over what patch of ground the drones or missiles came from is pretty irrelevant, unless that really was from Israeli turf. The point is that the Yemeni Shia take orders from Tehran, why would they claim responsibility otherwise? It would be suicidal because it would mean that a ME and western coalition would form around the Saudi attempts to dislodge them, as in play time is over. And if the source of the attacks is followed up to the doorstep of Iran and it’s proxies then I would not at all be surprised to see an attack on Iran itself with all that means, possible pan Islamic war. Iran is famous for betting the US and western allies are to cowardly to do that. But, when it comes to energy security I think they will find they have bitten off way more than they can chew.
is the us not a proxy of israel?
Xil; most here I think would say it is the other way around. I am not a Zionist theory monger though, Israel has a lot of power here but not as much as many think, they are mostly just trying to survive, something they could not do without US and thus UN support. They can only do so much before they threaten their hold on the US.
No, they may have more influence than they are due, but that does not make them our master. Indeed the sheer size and weight of the American machinery, economic, population, military, and our own history make it impossible for any other nation to really dominate us, it can’t be done because to dominate up would be to change our very nature ending that which they seek to control. The trick is to benefit from our friendship without becoming dominant. Just like a virus or parasite can’t become a controller of the host without killing it, they have to survive by taking just enough and no more or they kill the host and die with it.
You are over thinking this in every way, enlisting everybody into some kind of cynical cloying geopolitical chess game. Only the Americans are playing this game, the other players are not even in the game. The Houthis want the Saudis to get out of their country and stop killing them off and starving them to death. Iran has never said it wants to kill all Jews, but is against the State of Israel, as are many other parties. When was the last time Iran started a war, 1797? There was a Jewish community in Baghdad and Persia for millennia up until recently. Shia and Sunni fought their last battle in the 8th century before the CIA got involved. Shia Arabs are not automatic partners of Persia in geopolitical designs which the Persians have not expressed. All these people are not into this game of proxies and who controls the world. That is all American projection.
The only way to end Israel is to kill all the Jews so yes Iran wants whatever it takes. Islam has always expanded at the point of a sword, they have given lands they invaded no choice, submit or die. Iran is a non rational nation lead by maniacs, it would almost be comforting that they believed in the suicidal cult they belong to, but they don’t, they are as cold and calculating as any people. They are playing with fire outside their borders and inevitably will get burned.
Are they cold and calculated (rational) or are they maniacs. Or are the maniacs all the CIA and neo-con designs which have unleashed genocide and destruction in that part of the world on a scale we have not seen for millennia? Go home Yankee.
I thumbs up for you for having the testicles to spew your anti American antisemitic propaganda at a website where the readers are sophisticated enough to know what a crock of shit you really just dumped on them.
You are under thinking it in every way possible. Such a ridiculous comment, you have zero idea. Global geopolitics is very complex, in particular the Middle East, which is the most ridiculously complex geopolitical ‘chess board’ in the world in regards to game playing. In that region they’re all playing it. Israel. Iran. Saudi. Qatar. UAE. Russia. China. Turkey. US. UK. France. etc.
Saudi Qatar UAE and Israel would not exist but for the West; without the west the sheikdoms would be gone in no time, as even Trump observed. The US is the malign party.
A few weeks of metallurgist grunt work should resolve origin of the weapons’ build kit materials. I hope it’s not some little shade tree job shops in Tehran. If so, prepare for a redo of the following scene from Unforgiven:
“Trust those who seek the truth. Doubt those who find it”
André Gide