by Mish

The problem for Republicans is not a single Democrat supports the bill. All 216 votes will need to come from Republicans, of which there are 237. That means there can only be 21 Republican dissents.

The New York Times has an interesting graphic on Omabacare Replacement Intentions. Let’s take a look.

If accurate, that’s all you need to know.

If you give Paul Ryan the benefit of the doubt and all the undecideds, all the concerned, and all the supporters end up voting to repeal and replace, you reach 210 votes. That is six short. So at least six of the no votes need to change their minds.

How Likely is That?


Perhaps Salil Mehta at Statistical Ideas has a quick assessment but here’s mine:

There is a far greater chance the replacement vote is delayed, postponed, or never happens at all than it passes. We will find out soon enough, as in tomorrow. That’s when Ryan has scheduled a vote.

Off the top of my head, I suggest odds of passage tomorrow are well under 5%. The odds the vote is scrapped are about even.

I suspect I overstate the scrappage odds because I rely on common sense, that Ryan will not want to have his bill go down in massive flames by a huge margin. However, relying on common sense from arrogant politicians could be asking for too much.


Regardless, the vote is moot. If by some miracle the vote passes the House, it is likely doomed in the Senate.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Move to Repeal and Replace Obamacare Underway: Only 50 Senate Votes Needed

At long last, Republicans have unveiled a plan to replace Obamacare. To do so, they will need nearly every Republican vote.

Obamacare Replacement Postponed: New “Final Offer” Coming

The Obamacare replacement vote has been postponed. There are conflicting reports on when a vote will next take place.

Obamacare Repeal Fails By One Vote: McCain’s

Senator McCain returned to the Senate last week providing the 50th vote allowing debate on Obamacare to begin. In an ironic twist of fate, shortly after Midnight on Friday, McCain voted against the Obamacare repeal. It failed 51-49.

Obamacare Replacement an Impossible Nut to Crack

Obamacare replacement looks all but dead in the Senate. If by some magic it passes the Senate, it will still have to meet House approval.

Obamacare Repeal Vote May Be Delayed, Won’t Pass Senate: Trump Makes “Final Offer”

It’s much harder to get votes to do something when the votes actually matter. After scheduling a vote on Obamacare for today, GOP lawmakers now say ObamaCare Repeal Vote May Be Delayed.

Rand Paul’s “Obamacare Replacement Act” vs. Mish Health Care Proposals

Please consider Senator Rand Paul’s “Obamacare Replacement Act“. Paul’s bill allows cross-state insurance. That’s a step in the right direction.

McCain to Reverse Obamacare Vote Provided the Governor of Arizona Agrees

An Obamacare repeal is back in play as McCain Signals He’s Now a ‘Yes’, provided the governor of Arizona agrees.

Ryan Foresees “Bloodbath” if No Obamacare Replacement; Cotton Says Ryan’s Bill Won’t Pass Senate

Senator Tom Cotton says House Speaker Paul Ryan’s Obamacare replacement bill will not pass the Senate

Obamacare “Now or Never” Not Enough Votes Says Ryan: Elvis Musical Tribute

Trump issued an ultimatum yesterday to the House. For details please see Art of the Deal – Trump Tells G.O.P. to Fall in Line or Be Stuck With Obamacare: Why Bother?