The Econoday consensus estimate for Friday's jobs report is 1,675,000. The range is a whopping 200,000 to 2,400,000,

Seasonal Adjustments

The lead chart shows the unadjusted education totals. When the BLS seasonally adjusts the numbers it looks like this.

State an Local education Seasonally Adjusted

Calculated Risk explains the charts in his post State and Local Government Education Employment will Increase Sharply in July, Seasonally Adjusted

In the current school year (red), educators were let go earlier than usual due to the pandemic, with layoffs starting in March. It appears another 350 thousand or more educators will be let go in July NSA. 

Since there is a regular seasonal pattern, the BLS adjusts the hiring so the typical school year hiring and layoffs, Seasonally Adjusted (SA), is mostly flat.

However, in the 2019-2020 school year, layoffs started much earlier. Now, in July, the red line will have to come back close to zero after the seasonal adjustment. This would suggest about 850 thousand jobs added in July SA.

Auto Sector

On a smaller scale we may seem the same in the auto sector which often shuts down in July but did not do so this year.

Census Workers


Paid Temporary Census Workers

2020 Census Paid Temporary Workers will also boost employment, even more so seasonally-adjusted.

Continued State Unemployment Claims

Continued State Unemployment Claims in 2020 August 6 Report

The BLS reference week for the household survey unemployment rate is the week that contains the 13th of the month.

Last month the reference week showed 19,231,000 continued claims. For July, there were 16,951,000.

That does not impact the establishment survey jobs number, but all of these things impact the "official" unemployment rate.

This is a big of a mess and on top of it all, the BLS admits survey errors.


Jobs Surge in Strike-Ending and Seasonal Adjustment Rebound

Jobs rose far more than expected in a rebound from GM strike end and seasonal adjustment factors.

Housing Starts Surge to a 13-Year High Thanks to Massive Seasonal Adjustments

Seasonally-adjusted housing starts jumped 19.9% to a 13-year high. Housing permits fell 3.9%

Jobs Rise 225,000 But Employment Fell by 89,000

The BLS reports jobs rose by 225,000 in January but the manufacturing recession continues.

Bond Yields Plunge as Coronavirus Outweighs Strong Jobs

The BLS reports jobs rose by 273,000 in February but interest rate yields and the stock market are down big.

Jobs Report Badly Misses Estimates: 130,000 Jobs with Only 96,000 Private Jobs

The jobs report dramatically missed expectations today, especially with private jobs.

Jobs +201,000 vs Employment -423,000: Another BLS Divergence

Nonfarm jobs rose but actual employment fell in two different measures of the BLS July jobs report.

One Hell of a Seasonal Adjustment: NAR's Existing Home Sales Math

The NAR says existing home sales are down 2.2% from a year ago. The breakouts by price range do not seem to add up.