In addition to the inversion between the 5- and 3-year yields. Today also sported a smaller inversion between the 5- and 2-year yields.
Thanks to reader Schaap60 for the accurate spot.
5-Year to 2-Year Inversion
For further discussion, please see First Inversion in Seven Years: Can a Recession be Far Off?
I repeat my assessment:
- The classic recession signal that most follow is a 2-10 inversion. I doubt we see a 2-10 inversion before recession hits.
- My call: There will not be the warning nearly everyone is waiting for.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
If this isn’t a sign of Deflation than I don’t know what is. Looks like 1929 all over again.
It would be interesting to see if inversions occur in the German and UK bonds leading up to a recession. If yield inversions are happening globally then the 10-2yr yield spread doesn’t matter.
Saw the 3 and 5 were both 2.840…. I think it was yesterday. The 20 & 30 have been inverted for about a year now.
MSM does not give credit. I do. Thanks to reader Schaap60 for the accurate spot.
You’re welcome. I actually follow the rates daily but the Bloomberg link I use only goes out to the hundredths place, where the 2-5 ended identical today. Thanks for posting a more detailed chart.
Trillion$+ deficit and the economy is still clearly heading into recession.
This is scary.
We never left the last recession.
It was papered over for awhile though.
More like a Depression.
Yes. This will get ugly fast once tax receipts start declining. The bond market hasnt seen the type of upheaval that is coming since its existence.