Tunnel Talks
Q: What’s the tunnel?
A: A place where there are no cameras, cell phones, computers, or other communication. No one wants any leaks until a deal is reached.
Green Light
“They are giving the green light at the moment,” according to one diplomat.
Even Donald Tusk is on board.
From Eurointelligence
It has been our experience – and that of Angela Merkel as well – that all important deals in EU politics happen at the last minute when they happen. Final deadlines matter, not procedural deadlines like October 17 or 19. The EU and the UK have until the end of the month to get a deal. Of course, they will need an extension to pass it. But, once a deal is done, that’s a technical detail.
Maastricht was not settled by the officials who wrote the treaty, but by the political leaders who in the end compromised on areas where they previously said they would not. It is possible that Johnson compromises on the customs union. And that Varadkar will compromise on the length of the backstop. Or vice versa. Or both.
It is possible that the fragile parliamentary majorities in the UK may break down again. But the Brexit fatigue in the country is playing into Johnson’s hand. If elections were to precede final ratification, Johnson’s message to Get Brexit Done would be a better campaigning platform than Labour’s pledge to negotiate yet another deal and put it to a referendum. Once a deal is done, Labour might have to consider its strategic options again. There is a case for supporting the deal and moving on, rather than promising another year or more of Brexit uncertainty.
Could other EU leaders still reject this deal? If Varadkar is happy, it would be hard for them to frustrate an agreement. It is the price EU leaders will have to pay for hiding behind the Irish prime minister so far.
And finally, perhaps the most important statement from Varadkar was the following: “I am now absolutely convinced that both Ireland and the UK want there to be an agreement that’s in the interests of Ireland and the UK, and the EU as a whole.”
Revival of Theresa May’s Deal?
NEW: The UK appears to be drifting closer back to the original aims of the Northern Ireland backstop, I understand. This is the message Michel Barnier delivered to EU27 ambassadors late this morning following his meeting with Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay
— Tony Connelly (@tconnellyRTE) October 11, 2019
Polls
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 35% (+1)
LAB: 22% (+1)
LDEM: 20% (-3)
BREX: 12% (-)
GRN: 6% (+1)via @YouGov, 08 – 09 Oct
Chgs. w/ 01 Oct— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) October 11, 2019
Heading Towards the Tunnel
Senior EU source inside Barnier briefing confirms to @skynews that intense negotiations – aka “the tunnel” – will now begin between EU and UK pic.twitter.com/7CX4doDOjl
— Adam Parsons (@adamparsons) October 11, 2019
The Guardian Live Blog reports
EU member states give permission for ‘tunnel’ negotiations, says Barnier
The UK government had been keen to open “tunnel” negotiations with the commission on the detail of a deal, and this will be seen as a sign that progress is being made with the EU. These intensive talks are now set to be held in the days before the summit on 17 and 18 October.
Permanent Trap?
That’s all we know other than Johnson had to give in on something.
I presume this will not be the same deal Theresa May negotiated, but it will likely have some of those aspects. Ireland probably gave up something as well.
The details are subject to negotiation.
If there is a way for the EU to keep the UK in a permanent trap, the UK may as well stay in.
Negotiations have finally begun!
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
“this looks like the ace in that Boris has up his sleeve”
I believe so
Well done
“The issue with your interpretation is the fact that long extension would always be the best outcome to EU. “
Not necessarily true – With a big enough majority the UK would leave in an Iron Curtain fashion as proposed by Eurointelligence.
Mish,
If the EU could get a long extension, and mix that in with a remainer government of remainer unity, they might be able to run a second referendum to get a different result.
To ensure a different result, many are suggesting a choice between remain and a leave with a terrible deal in order to give the illusion of choice. Of course if that happens, many will cease to vote, at that point what is the point?
Mish,
this looks like the ace in that Boris has up his sleeve.
It is pretty clear to me that legislation that forces someone to do a deed, like jump off a bridge, isn’t a proper law, just an abuse of power.
The Vienna convention makes it pretty clear that such laws are null and void.
The only two outs that Remainers have here is Supreme Court, which will judge improperly I am sure, though here their judgement would have to be incredibly egregious because the case in point matches the convention exactly. Secondly they could take over Parliament and use the remainer majority to revoke Brexit, basically declaring war on the people and making it ultra clear that the shenanigans over the withdrawal agreement were just a façade to prevent any Brexit at all.
A more optimistic possibility: the EU listened to Cummings threats in the Spectator piece and realised that although they could force an extension, probably doing that would ensure a Tory Govt with strong majority who would then drive a hard bargain or exit. More importantly, afterwards would be hard to, with Britain actively competing with all major EU players in a semi-hostile fashion. So what would the EU truly gain? Not much. Better to let the UK go but do so in a somewhat friendly fashion so as to maintain the surplus (to them) flow of goods which are especially important for export-driven German manufacturers (esp. cars), and no doubt thousands of long-standing contracts with wine and cheese producers in nearby France. In other words, they finally came to appreciated that UK’s goodwill is worth more than a technical victory resulting in an unending nightmare.
The main thing is to get enough of a deal so that any remaining hooks can be later disentangled, but after the ability of the Remainer army’s rearguard action forestalling any forward progress has been taken out of the equation.
Of course, we don’t know what has been agreed. But Boris won’t be able to pass something that is too much like May’s deal – especially the political agreement aspect – that keeps UK in submissive thrall to EU jurisdiction and control. I find it hard to believe that he will bank on getting it through in some sort of exhaustion blackmail play, nor that Cummins would ever have helped him get to that. So I think they found a way to truly pressure the EU, and the EU has decided to play ball finally.
We’ll soon know one way or the other…
The issue with your interpretation is the fact that long extention would always be the best outcome to EU. They could have extended it till 2022 when new UK election are due just because Boris is not able to force the election earlier ! He has no means, and Libor would not go for election until its polling numbers are too poor. The only way EU could have started negotiation is when they are sure that they cannot extend… So, I still stay on my statement that Boris cannot be replaced before end of Oct and this is what drives this engagement from EU.
Brexit = ‘Waiting for Godot’
Alright, so what was really going on there?
Why did he make a concession then?
Don’t ask sensible questions that he can’t answer because then he’d realise how silly he is. Krage is another fact free zone.
Surely, there will be some concessions…
But what all those deals mean?
So much for the enthusiasm about the majority in parliament… Any concession from Johnson would alienate the DUP or the ERG. They were already on the razor’s edge after the last proposal. A defeated deal would probably undermine the future of Boris as Tory leader. It is better for him not to try anything doubtful.
I think the talks will halt again, this iteration is part of the blame game.
BRINO.
Just be careful that the light at the end of the Chunnel isn’t a train.
Hey, bright days are here ! Light at the end of the tunnel for Brexit, and I’ll let you in on a secret, US/China trade conflict is over, doncha know–markets up all over!
Now, what else could provide light in a tunnel…..