The full manufactured goods report, released today, was another disaster. The report included a major negative revision to manufactured goods last month.
New Orders
- New orders for manufactured durable goods in May, up four consecutive months, increased $0.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $282.9 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase. This followed a 0.2 percent April increase.
- Transportation equipment, up three of the last four months, drove the increase.
- New orders for manufactured nondurable goods decreased $3.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $300.2 billion.
Shipments
- Shipments of manufactured durable goods in May, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $1.1 billion or 0.4 percent to $284.6 billion, down from the previously published 0.3 percent decrease in the Advance Data.
- Transportation equipment, also down following three consecutive monthly increases, led the decrease, $0.8 billion or 0.9 percent to $91.9 billion.
- Shipments of manufactured nondurable goods, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased $3.2 billion or 1.0 percent to $300.2 billion. This followed a 0.5 percent April increase.
Inventories
- Inventories of manufactured durable goods in May, up five of the last six months, increased $1.4 billion or 0.3 percent to $529.9 billion, unchanged from the previously published increase. This followed a 0.1 percent April increase.
- Transportation equipment, up eleven of the last twelve months, led the increase, $1.1 billion or 0.7 percent to $172.3 billion.
- Inventories of manufactured nondurable goods, up four consecutive months, increased $0.4 billion or 0.1 percent to $330.2 billion. This followed a 0.1 percent April increase. Petroleum and coal products, up three of the last four months, led the increase, $0.4 billion or 0.8 percent to $48.0 billion.
Advance Report
On June 27, I reported Durable Goods New Orders Rise Slightly From Big Negative Revision
The Commerce Dept revised durable goods orders for April from 0.7% to 0.2%. This is the 2nd month with huge negative revisions.
Full Report Comments
- The Full Report on Manufactured Goods includes nondurable goods and total manufactured goods not available in the advance report.
- Some of this weakness was expected from the advance report, but there were two significant negative revisions.
- The Commerce Dept revised total manufactured from 0.7 to 0.4 and shipments from -0.3 to -0.4. The Durable Goods revision last month from 0.7 to 0.2 was understood in the advance report.
Revisions, Revisions, Revisions
Note the ongoing revisions, all of them negative and significantly so.
It was the negative revisions and the ISM services report, that led me to conclude the GDPNow forecast would drop.
The edit was changing “a another” to “another”.
Services ISM Plunges
Earlier today, I noted The Services ISM Plunges Into a Recession Forecasting Contraction
The ISM Services report was a disaster. Based on the current report, the overall economy dipped into contraction.
There was one positive wildcard that kept the GDPNow forecast from plunging more than it did.
I will comment on the GDPNow report next.
Can we try running up 2 trillion in debt every 100 days? Would that turn this around?
Oh what the hell let’s just go with a trillion every month… that should deliver a nice sugar buzz to the economy.
Let’s rewind this a bit … one of the directors in a company I own was the honcho for a major bank in Asia — head guy of the bond division… I spoke to him about the GFC etc… and he said … they will throw the kitchen sink at this … absolutely everything … because if they fail… civilization will end…
I get it… then I watched as they threw everything at this … bricks… pots and pans… rocks… bags of soft shit…empty revolvers…. they threw the lot at it — and they publicly proclaimed VICTORY.
The GFC was done … we were moving on
Only we weren’t — we just extended and pretended… we kicked the can for over a decade… then we ran into another wall in 2019… and under covid of covid we got another massive global bailout
It looks like we are out of ammo now… raise rates – destroy the bond market and kill the consumer etc… lower rates – hyperinflation.
it’s taken 16 years… but we are just about at the throwing the kitchen sink. Obviously that will fail….
Which leaves us with … collapse. Supply chains will implode as the financial system vapourizes…. then the Gates of Hell will open
Everyone who understands what was going on in late 2019 knows that Covid was the scam of all scams (until the next one tops it).
I’m with you on this one. Everyone with any intelligence at all knows Covid was a coordinated scam between China, Russia, North Korea, Israel and the US to ruin the world economy in order to pave the way for an alien takeover from another galaxy. But Trump wouldn’t go along with it and secretly developed a vaccine to foil the alien plans. He then scared the aliens away by creating the Space Force. He single handedly saved our planet.
We need to vote him back in to stop all future alien scams. Unless, of course, he has actually been replaced with an alien double. That would suck.
A
My fear is the aliens will transplant Biden’s brain into Trump’s head.
It’s pretty obvious the plan is well underway.
Biden does not have a cold, he has an alien virus.
That is step #1 in the process.
Agreed.
“civilization will end…”
It ended with the founding of The Fed.
There is no such thing as a “civilization” built on an ever growing foundation of nothing aside from pure, crass theft from productive people and industry. For the sole; and even that only temporary; benefit of a bunch of complete nothings with no brains, no clue, no use and no value. At all, and literally.
The quicker the utter insult collapses and is replaced; by anything at all other than the current; the better.
Food will still grow the same as before, roads won’t disappear, people’s skills (whatever little is left) won’t be forgotten, buildings won’t collapse. IOW: Nothing of any relevance will disappear as a result of a bunch of pointless paper being revalued to something more realistic.
All the childish fearmongering that it will, is just braindead screaming by the childbrains that The Fed and government have; in exchange for ZERO contribution of their own; handed nominal ownership and control over all real value to. Sure: Those particular purely destructive, singularly incompetent idiots may lose some unearned current privileges. Which is absolutely necessary, in order for more competent people to have a shot at taking over, hence for there to be ANY shot at rescuing anything at all of this manurehole of a wasteland. “From Everyone Else; To The Very Dumbest of the Dumb and only them” will never; no matter what childish fearmongering is employed to sucker the stupid; lead to anything but inevitably decay. The quicker that whole racket is smashed to pieces and replaced by anything at all else; the inevitably better.
99%+ of all food is grown industrially — petro chemicals are required to make the pesticides and fertilizers… without them nothing grows – the soil is dead.
When the global economy collapses… because we have run out of affordable energy to operate this economy … the supply chains will collapse… permanently… because we can no longer produce energy… therefore there will be no petro chemicals….
You will starve
Don’t waste your time with this … https://fasteddynz.substack.com/p/the-utter-futility-of-doomsday-prepping
And yet amid all the doom and gloom there are the occasional bright spots:
There is a significant shortage of shipping containers, which has driven up ocean freight rates by 30% recently.
US oil inventories dropped 12 mb last week.
Air traffic is hitting new records.
Auto sales are up every month this year.
Corporate profits are doing well.
My portfolio is up over 20% this year so far. And that’s after 3 years of fantastic gains.
I like this recession!
I suspect in the run up to 1929 this was the sentiment … just before they jumped out the windows.
Lol! I think you have said that to me about a dozen times in the last 4 years. Four years of you being wrong! That must hurt your pride.
You must be getting desperate to be right about your depression call.
Oddly enough I have been participating on this blog for less than a year…
it’s not a depression call.
it’s a total collapse followed by extinction call
Not you?
Okay.
But I have been hearing that exact comment here for 4 years; over and over again.
Same old garbage. A depression is coming.
I see that you one-upping it with a total collapse and extinction call.
That’s even better!
Are you hiding in your bunker already?
Give me one historical instance of a bubble that didn’t collapse. Oh yeah, that’s right, there are NONE.
In my garden, I have three hedgehogs. One is very big, one is medium-sized and the other is small. They are very useful in giving me buy and sell indicators of the market. Most of the time the medium-sized hedgehog is out looking for grubs and worms and that indicates not to change my portfolio. Sometimes the big one comes in, and he is very big, to indicate that there will be a strong upward move in the market in the next three days. Today however the small one came out and dug around for over an hour right in front of the terrace. That in my experience is a very strong indication that the market is going into a good retreat because the length of time they spend visible determines the amplitude of the movement. Of course, in winter they hibernate but in winter I use other indicators.
You may laugh but I do use them and frankly they are very accurate and if they are accurate why would I not use them even though it is not logical to do so.
You should think about making a backyard zoo with more traditional market predicting animals like bulls, bears, hawks and doves. You might find some interesting interactions with the hedgehogs that could provide more clarity.
In winter I use the two owls that spend winter here. One is a Barn Owl and the other a Long-eared Owl. They are very good indicators too.
Better than my broker!
It’s the natural way to invest.
That’s it. I just sold everything and went to 100% cash! I’m not going to bother to “hedge”.
Thanks!
By weight motor vehicle is the largest segment and it’s positive. By weight the Multi apt CRE is the largest and they are doing well. The malls got cancer decades ago. Office buildings got a stroke four years ago.
And, the overall economy: 1) a SORE THROAT? 2) AN ANEURYSM? 3) BROKEN BACK. 4) GONORRHEA? 5) BUTT SORES? (SORRY, WOKE OUT THE WINDOW NOW). 6) HEAT STROKE? 7) FROSTBITE? 7) ____________???
Don’t worry about the economy. Just keep hiding in your basement. It will all be fine.
Vaccine Injured?
None of these reports appear to be concerning to investors.
What do investors know that provides the Liquidity?
Apres moi, le deluge.