Advance Retail Sales Unexpectedly Decline 1.1%
The Commerce Department Advance Retail Sales Report shows a 1.1%. decline in November vs an Econoday consensus estimate of -0.3%.
Commerce Details
- Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $546.5 billion, a decrease of 1.1 percent from the previous month, but 4.1 percent above November 2019.
- Total sales for the September 2020 through November 2020 period were up 5.2 percent from the same period a year ago.
- The September 2020 to October 2020 percent change was revised from up 0.3 percent to down 0.1 percent.
- Retail trade sales were down 0.8 percent from October 2020, but 7.1 percent above last year.
- Nonstore retailers were up 29.2 percent from November 2019, while food services and drinking places were down 17.2 percent from last year.
Worse Than it Looks
The decline is even worse than it looks because the Commerce Department revised October from +0.3% to -0.1%.
Advance Retail Sales Detail
Total spending nearly recovered by June. Select categories better reflect the winners and losers.
Advance Retail Sales Select Categories
Advance Retail Sales Select Categories Detail
It’s easy to spot the winners and losers.
Food services and drinking places, gas stations, and department stores did not recover.
Those with a job and those with assets fueled a big recovery in motor vehicles and parts.
These stats bode ill for department stores dependent on holiday shopping.
Mish
I am not sure.
We purchased a $7000 TV + sound system from a local AV installer.
Do you think our purchase from this tiny business was measured?
Nope.
Massive economic V recovery. Put your shades on the futures so bright it will blind you.
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I noticed online retail stocks had been trending down for a few months but now look like they may reverse. They started trending down on vaccine announcements but I think they reversing on stimulus announcements.
XLY (Consumer Discretionary ETF) FWIW
It appears retail is doing better post-covid but the main reason is the weighting of Amazon and Walmart in this index.
I wonder how much of the $1200 / $500 checks to people who were employed went to discretionary spending. Yes, a lot of people were unemployed (12% peak) but that still means 88% of employed people got a bonus $1200 check to buy more stocks or spend on furniture…etc. Then think of all the vacation earmarked money that went to retail spending instead.
Gosh, whooodathunkit that sales would crash at the end of the stimulus?
Congress should have passed a relief package 3 months ago. The current one is too small and too late to save Christmas for the retailers..
It certainly looks to me like it will get worse before it gets much better.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see another round of stimulus before summer. We are a long way from getting through this crisis. jmho.
They’re trying to leave a time bomb for Biden to get blamed for.
I heard rumors of a 3 Trillion stimulus package in 2021. If that is correct. That would boost the stock market and the price of housing even further.
Lets hope the DEMS get control of the house so they can implement their policy plans without being able to blame the GOP. I would suspect a big stimulus package. Student debt forgiveness. Home eviction help. Renter assistance.
‘Student debt forgiveness. Home eviction help. Renter assistance’…… Sure…and free sex and drugs and rock n roll too…..Lala land exists, we live in it !
I meant senate and house
I disagree. The economy has done better than expected to this point. Another stimulus three months ago would have been unnecessary.
Total paralysis, they’ll be more lockdowns. Wonder if they’ll be a big stock dip as people clear out their 401(k)s for cash before the CARES penalty waiver expires.
Just went and researched that… would be great to pry that money out of the 401k account without penalty, but alas, I don’t have any qualifying hardships.
More lockdowns?
My county in Oregon has been on lockdown since mid-March.
They can take these communist lockdowns and cram them up their ass!
What exactly is ‘communist’ about the lockdown. Do you even know what the word means?
who is the snowflake now ?
“communist” ? … the average fat spineless entitled Amurikan couldn’t handle a true totalitarian regime.
Shirt and shoes to enter a supermarket to buy deep fried donuts … no problem.
wear a mask to protect your community ? …. “COMMIE CZARS taking away my righTs !!!”
Must…have…MOAR…Stimulus.
Wouldn’t hurt. New Zealand and Australia took care of their people, killed off a much smaller percentage of them, and are seeing a business recovery. Turns out competent leadership matters in situations like this.
Is it really “stimulus” when the State and a disease conspire to prevent you from earning money? The entire system should collapse in honor of the false god of “fiscal responsibility?”