Five Significant Changes
- The superdelegates do not get to vote in the first round this year unless a candidate has a majority. Unlike 2016 when they all went to Hillary, this year they don’t vote until round 2 unless it is already decided.
- California is now part of Super Tuesday. In 2016, the California primary was held on June 7. This year, the survivor bias bandwagon effect will be significantly reduced and possibly eliminated.
- Following NH there will be two debates, and likely 4 candidates minimum at each. Currently there are six.
- This will likely not be a two-way races headed into Super-Tuesday. Elizabeth Warren may have little overall chance, but she does have a chance of getting 15% in many states.
- Progressive Split: Bernie Sanders are battling each other for the Progressives. Bernie will get most of this vote, but Warren will likely have have enough money to stay in until the end if she wants.
- Bloomberg and Steyer may target a couple of states hard: Texas, Colorado perhaps? They may each pull 15% in a couple of them.
1: Superdelegates
One of the rule changes since 2016 is that superdelegates (uncommitted) cannot vote in the first round unless there is already a clear majority.Specifically
- If a single candidate wins at least 2,268 pledged delegates: Superdelegates will be allowed to vote at first ballot, as their influence can not overturn the majority of pledged delegates.
- If a single candidate wins 1,886–2,267 pledged delegates: Superdelegates will be barred from voting at first ballot, which solely will be decided by the will of pledged delegates.
- If no candidate wins more than 1,885 pledged delegates: This will result in a contested convention, where superdelegates are barred from voting at the first formal ballot, but regain their right to vote for their preferred presidential nominee for all subsequent ballots needed until the delegates reach a majority.
In 2016 Sanders supporters howled, and correctly so, about superdelegate bias for Hillary.
This change alone increases the chances of a brokered convention.
2: Super Tuesday Changes
Compared to 2016, California adds 495 delegates. North Carolina adds 122 delegates. Maine adds 32. And Georgia subtracts 120.
That is a net new 528 delegates that will have at least some survivor bandwagon bias removed.
By survivor bias, I mean increasing the tendency of people to vote for winners as the campaign progresses.
As noted above, the California primary in 2016 was held on June 7. This is a very significant change.
3: Debate Schedule
Six are qualified for the next set of debates.
Billionaire Tom Steyer just qualified. He joins Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Amy Klobuchar.
There will be two Democratic debates following the New Hampshire primary. The rules will change then, but we do not yet know how.
Those 4-way to 6-way debates can easily take momentum from whoever wins Iowa and New Hampshire.
4: Not a 2-Way Race
The DNC was hoping to narrow the field to two or three. Nope. This will not be a 2016 repeat of Hillary vs Bernie.
Warren is likely to get 15% in many states and might even win Massachusetts.
5: Progressive Split
Bernie is a very strong favorite to beat Warren in the battle for the progressives.
But she has a dedicated following and might easily take 15% of the vote in many states.
Also Warren is good at fundraising. She will likely last to the end.
6: Billionaires
Please note Tom Steyer’s Surprise Surge in SC and NV.
Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg are both billionaires. They can self-finance to the end if so desired.
Steyer is highly unlikely to win any states let alone the nomination, but he could easily disrupt South Carolina enough so there is not much momentum for any candidate headed into Super Tuesday.
Bloomberg could conceivably win New York and do very well in Texas on Super Tuesday. By very well I mean 15% or better.
Importance of 15% Threshold
Note that 15% keeps popping up in my analysis.
I discussed why in What Are the Odds of No Winner in the Democratic Primaries?
Let’s recap.
Proportional Voting
Republicans have winner-take-all rules in some states but the Democrats generally have some sort of proportional allocation, typically with a 15% threshold.
In California, 35% of the votes are statewide, the rest by district.
California Example
According to the California Democratic Party 2020 Delegate Selection Overview, the California Delegation will send a total of 495 delegates the Democratic National Convention comprised of 416 Pledged Delegates and 79 Unpledged Delegates.
Of the pledged delegates, 90 are at-large (statewide) delegates. Another 54 are pledged party leaders (mayors, legislators, state officials, etc.) committed to candidates who get at least 15% of the vote.
(90+54)/416 = 35%
Of the pledged delegates, 326 are allocated by district. The 15% rule comes into play, but at the district level.
Let’s run the above math based on a hypothetical California poll that has Bernie at 24%, Warren at 21%, and Biden at 20%.
I am told the poll is real, but there is no reporting on it that I can find.
California Statewide Math
- 24 + 21 + 20 = 65
- Sanders would get 24/65ths of the statewide delegates (37%)
- Warren would get 21/65ths of the statewide delegates (32%)
- Biden would get 20/65ths of the statewide delegates (31%)
- Sanders would get 33 statewide delegates.
- Warren would get 29 statewide delegates.
- Biden would get 28 statewide delegates.
Those are the statewide allocations.
Pledged Delegate District Math
Sanders would get 24% minimum of 326 district delegates.
Warren would get 21% minimum of 326 district delegates.
Biden would get 20% minimum of 326 district delegates.
Those are approximations for two reasons.
Although there is a 15% minimum, that also applies at the district level. It’s possible that Sanders, Warren, or Biden would not get 15% in every district.
It is also possible some candidates get 15% in some districts without hitting the 15% statewide threshold.
Consider the possibility Buttigieg got 15% in half the districts but only 11% statewide. In that case he would get about 7.5% of the 326 or 24 delegates.
Super Tuesday
Someone is going to “win” but that someone may only have 35-45% of the delegates.
Would that be enough to cause winner bias to kick in?
I don’t know. Nor does anyone else. But I doubt it.
Projections
Project similar three-way splits across Texas, Illinois, Florida, and New York.
Guess what?
You have no overall winner and thus a “Brokered Convention” even if Bloomberg does not win New York or Warren win Massachusetts.
How Likely?
A brokered convention may seem unlikely, and probably is, but unlikely does not mean zero.
Should it come to a brokered convention, Warren’s delegates would likely go to Bernie.
And expect massive howls if Bernie were to have more delegates in round one but lost to Biden when the superdelegates kicked in.
Some say it is too early to be discussing such things, but I would rather discuss this now and throw it away than be in a mad rush to figure everything out at the last minute on Super Tuesday.
Low odds does not mean no odds. I suspect the odds right now are at least 15% and perhaps way higher.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
It will be a brokered convention and this time when Sanders is not the nominee it will split the party. I say good riddance, let the communists form their own party. Just as the GOP needs to come back to reality and force their own far right to form a Nazi party (nationalist white party).
Centrists, reasonable people with some differences, as well as the ability to be rational and compromise, make up 80% of the overall electorate and it is time we take our parties back from the radicals. I am a lifelong democrat that has always sought to work with republicans in the past, even voted for McCain and Reagan (once) and while I am overall a democrat that does not mean I accept everything in their platform every election cycle, some of my values are solid GOP territory, but, I absolutely cannot abide the so called moral majority, a self appointed group of people that work to kill individual rights in the name of liberty. They are in fact great propagandists in that there is nothing moral about them and they would not know liberty if it bit them on the ass. What they mean is let’s keep the elite status quo based on individual net worth.
So, I like the 2020 campaign slogan; Make Orwell Fiction Again!
Just that some so called democrats would be worse than even the lunatic far right is. I am looking at you Sanders and your crazy hate filled borg.
Politics. Yawn. Nothing ever changes. A lifetime of voting stops this cycle. It’s delusional to believe your vote makes a difference, particularly at the national level. Local judges are another matter. I’m going to stop pretending. I suggest all thinking adults do the same.
Yes, give up, fall for the current Russian propaganda that our political system is a circus theater sham and your voice does not count. When the USA fails once and for all it will be those that have shirked their duty to participate that will be responsible.
Sanders volunteer says Milwaukee (site of the 2020 Democratic convention) will “burn” if Sanders isn’t the nominee…
Good luck!
Sanders is a Russian plant and always has been, he is our Hugo Chavez and is supported by GRU troll farms. His followers are the worst dregs of the hipster spoiled brats that think they should be awarded free college upon high school graduation and a $100k per year job upon college graduation and they are violently pissed that this just is not how the world works.
I was in Nevada for the 2016 vote and registered as a democrat, so I naturally was exposed to more than a few Bernie supporters. They were the single most vicious and foul mouthed haters I ever met, they made patrons of a confederate flag biker bar look tolerant and calm.
Their hatred for HRC was so wildly out of control it was scary, and god forbid you disagree with any of them. If I have to vote and Sanders is the nominee then I would vote for Trump first even though I consider him a walking talking Nazi virus with treason in his heart. He is as bad as I can imagine but still better than Sanders. Bernie Sanders is literally the last person I would vote for.
Sanders goal is the destructin of the US he says to remake it into a fair and equitable place and he is up front about the democrats being the only thing stopping that from happening. That is why he has targeted the party and is attempting to either take it over or else to neutralize it as a force in politics. He has never hidden his strategy of making the nation so unlivable under the GOP that the people eventually coronate him by acclamation. That they will stream out of their homes and demand by the tens of millions that he be put in charge, and unfortunately republican control is doing just that for him, making America so unlivable for the majority that they are turning to Sanders for relief and a false promise that they see as better than no promise at all.
Those of us that hate Sanders, and we are the majority of the democrats, really hate him because we see who he really is. There is NO WAY he ever wins office. Even if he gains enough support to get the nomination he will never get more than a quarter of the vote, we are talking a larger landslide for the GOP than Reagan got in 1980.
I’m not a Sander’s supporter either.
Two points:
Dems will not be united enough to beat Trump – that’s the point of Mish post.
More importantly, the Dems are being played. They should have told Sanders that he can’t run as a democrat. Bernie’s a democrat only when it suits him and he’s an independent the rest of the time.
Why was he not told that he needed to run as either an independent or socialist???
Problem solved:
link to zerohedge.com
495 CA delegates is correct. 79 of them are superdelegates unpledged and cannot vote in first round
Ah. I misinterpreted “adds”. I thought it meant new delegates.
Trump would beat Biden, Sanders or Warren, easily.
In fact, Trump is most likely going to win.
The 2016 election, especially when coupled with the Brexit referendum, represented a much bigger change than an election since 1994. It’s a world-wide rejection of globalism in general, manifesting itself as anti-immigration in the US.
This year’s election cannot be predicted by looking at the state-by-state returns from 2016. Expect the unexpected.
If you are right and I am not saying you are or are not, it will once again be because of Sanders sabotaging the party. Just as he did in 2016.
Personally I do not see Trump as being the GOP nominee, he will either be impeached (already has been, I meant REMOVED) or die, he is not magically immune to age and will be 74 on election day, and clearly losing his cognitive abilities. I blame his Adderall habit. That stuff might work to get you through the day but at a very high price. Point is there is NO way he makes it till January 20 of 2025 when the next president is sworn in after this, he would be 79 and is already losing it.
As to impeachment, the articles pending may not get him removed from office any time soon, but he is a criminal that has so many felonies in his background that finding one that can get him removed from office is really only a matter of time. GOP intransigence and corruption to cling to power such as Moscow Mitch’s promise that there will be no senate trial or at worst a sham trial that considers no evidence of wrongdoing is a failed policy for the right. You are grossly underestimating the impact that will have on the electorate, if McConnell refuses to hold a fair trial in the senate and just waves his partisan magic wand in an attempt to make the impeachment just go away he is also going to wash away all independent voters without which the GOP will never win in November. The only people that would vote Trump in that case would be the far right base and that is about 48 million voters, not nearly enough to win. There are 20+ million voters that LEAN republican, but who do not agree with the party, only usually agree with it more than with democrats.
Just the revelations from Lev Parnas’s phone revealed so far in the last two days about the targeting of our ambassador to Ukraine are making Moscow Mitch’s job harder by the hour. Of course those low information republicans that get their news solely from Faux or other far right propaganda outlets will not know this, but trust me when I say the evidence is stunning in it’s sheer criminality. And it is irrefutable.
It is going to be interesting because if Sanders wins the dem nomination that will neutralize at least as many people on the left, tens of millions of democrats just are not going to vote for him, I know I will not. And I can actually see the US simply breaking up rather than be forced to choose between Trump and Sanders. Either of them would be the end of the nation anyway and I am perfectly serious about that. If they are inevitable then we are in our last four years as a nation.
Let’s go beyond the conventions. What are the odds the general is a race with more than two candidates? I put ’em as “high”.
Biden is still in the race because people who answer polls recognize his name. Bernie and Warren are this year’s George McGovern / Barry Goldwater candidates. Buttigieg? Small town mayor with an truly unfortunate name.
And there are two, maybe three, Ross Perot / George Wallaces.
I’d not be surprised if this year – or maybe 2024 – there is a major realignment of who is on which party’s team.
You also can’t rule out with both parties having absolutely abysmal candidates,will the DoD military junta step in like they do in all 3rd world bankrupt banana republics and seize power,cancel elections and invoke martial law,dusk to dawn nationwide curfew.
Biden will win iowa and it will be over quickly
Pelosi all but guaranteed it by holding the articles until now. The dnc beat bernie again
Exactly. The issue is the DNC can’t win at their own game and they’re stuck between a rock… and well, another rock. The old guard will think by appeasing the larger base and selecting Biden he will draw in the appropriate group(s) of voters and rebuild their DC power structure. Instead they choose to ignore the troves of voters that are demanding fresh leadership. They’ll end up being shocked and disgusted when Trump wins a second term. Then will come the lamenting and gnashing of teeth with press and DNS calls of “Where did we go wrong?”, “How could that poll turn out to be so incorrect?”, “We didn’t see this coming!”. I’m just glad I have enough streaming content I won’t have to deal with the barrage of advertisements headed our way.
There is a lot of truth in what you two say above, but, I think that Sanders loss as nominee would be a permanent split in the party that will now come into the open, the far left is already willing to throw the general election to the GOP if they do not get their way, they did in 2016 and by the slightest of margins got their way. They cost HRC the Oval Office (with no small help from Putin).
In fact, 80% of democrats are fairly centrist. But the other 20% are true radicals and I think it is time the party is going to recognize that and simply stop allowing radicals to call themselves democrats and force them out of the party, to form their own party or whatever.
Before the GOP starts to do their best Mr. Burns imitation and rub their hand together while calling Smithers into his office the same problem is haunting the GOP. The far right Trumpsters are doing the same thing to your party as Sanders is doing to the democrats. Most conservatives signed on because they put winning first and felt that they could control Trump just as the German Von Papen thought he could control Hitler, but, it is clear that Moscow Mitch has no control over Trump and that Trump is a liability to the party who is destroying the GOP brand. Yes, most republicans will still vote for him but given the slender margin of victory in 2016 MOST is not going to be good enough.
As I keep saying, if it comes down to Trump v Sanders the combined political damage I really do believe would mean the end of the US. It will break up. Neither side will be willing to accept the outcome. I know I would not no matter who wins that contest and I am a lifelong mostly party line voter for the democrats.
Politics – Let’s break that down:
Poly – Meaning ‘Many’.
Ticks – Parasitical Blood Suckers
That pretty much describes all the candidates.
Depressing list of front runners. Think I’ll take a nap until they decide which Democratic Socialist (communist incognito) wins the nomination. Hmm, maybe Hillary will get another bite at the apple, perhaps more palatable? … puke
The Democrats, especially the socialists and the progressives told the Electors of the Electoral College to not vote for Trump in 2016.
Maybe we can have faithless delegates at the conventions?
Pointless, expensive circus.
It’s not pointless if you look at it from the rule maker’s point of view: Use the rules like Federal Regulations. Eliminate the competitors that threaten the status quo people.
The only point of this circus is to make people think that their votes and opinions matter.
It’s pointless from OUR point of view. Who really cares what the rule makers want?