I produced the headline chart in Excel from a data download of the Fed's monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Spending Projections

  • 75% Percentile: 8.13%
  • Median: 3.08%
  • 25% Percentile: 0.79%

The bottom wage earners barely expect to spend more a year from now. The top percentile fluctuates more, likely with sentiment towards the stock market.

The following charts are clipped straight from the report.

Inflation Expectations

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Even looking three years ahead, consumers do not see a spike in inflation.

The short- and medium-term inflation expectations remain at 2.8 percent and 2.9 percent.

Earnings Expectations

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Median one-year ahead earnings growth expectations declined slightly, from 2.7% in February to 2.6% in March. The decline was driven by respondents with annual income below $50,000.

Household Income Expecations

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Household Income Expectations by Age

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Median expected household income growth decreased 0.1 percentage points to 2.9% in March. The decrease was most pronounced among younger (less than 40 years old) and lower income (annual income below $50,000) respondents.

No Better Off

Median Income and spending expectations match median inflation expectations.

In short, consumers do not expect to be any better of next year than they are today.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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Every month, the NY Fed conducts a survey of consumer expectations. The lead chart is from the Fed, I created the others

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Every month the Fed does a survey of consumer expectations. Let's compare the CPI to what consumers say they will do.