All Continued Claims Rise for Third Week

Based on Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, admittedly lagging, there is little or no improvement in the number of unemployed.

My "All Continued Claims" chart is the sum of state claims, federal claims, and various pandemic unemployment assistance (PUA) claims. 

All claims lags continued claims by two weeks.

State Continued Claims

Continued State Unemployment Claims in 2020 July 09 Report

Based on trends in PUA claims any improvement may be a mirage.

Primary PUA Claims

Primary PUA Claims in 2020 July 9 Report

Initial State Claims

Initial state Claims July 9 Data

Continued state claims lag initial claims by a week. There are new claims but also people find jobs.

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The number of initial claims is down from the pandemic surge but is very elevated historically.

People must first file at the state level but some do not qualify. And some who did qualify exhausted state benefits and now need to apply for PUA.

Not a Pretty Picture

The trends suggest the unemployment picture is not improving much. Instead, people who qualified at the state level now need PUA assistance.

Add it up and there are 20 to 30 million people unemployed.

Fewer People Pay Their Rent on Time in July

That Fewer People Pay Their Rent on Time in July suggests more people are struggling.

United Warns It May Cut 36,000 Employees

Factor in United Warns It May Cut 36,000 Employees. All the airlines are in the same boat. 

In general, state reopenings are in reverse and that will slow if not reverse some labor gains.

Trump Claims to Have Saved 51 Million Jobs

If you are looking for a nonsensical claim, here you go Trump Claims to Have Saved 51 Million Jobs

Mish