Ugly Start to 4th Quarter

The Wall Street Journal reports U.S. Stocks Drop on Worries About Growth

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped about 500 points Wednesday as worries about a slowdown in the U.S. economy rattled markets to start the fourth quarter.

The stock market’s declines were broad and accelerated through the morning. All 11 sectors in the S&P 500 fell, as did all but one of the 30 blue-chip stocks in the Dow. Among the biggest losers were shares of big industrial and technology companies.

FTSE 3% Decline

The Financial Times reports FTSE 100 has worst day since 2016 as global stocks extend ugly start to Q4

Rate Cut Odds Soar

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A week ago, CME Fedwatch had the odds of a cut just over 50-50. Today, they are over 75%.


Half-Assed Assurances

I suspect New York Fed president John Williams did not do the markets any favors today with his half-assed assurances Fed has Recession Tools, Promises to Use them Quicker Next Time.

Long-term, such statements are meaningless even if they did affect something today.

Blame Impeachment

New Rule

It's never about Trump, unless it's good.

Thus, when you see headlines like this Manufacturing ISM Worst Since 2009 on Severe Contraction of Export Orders it is a certainly that Trump played no part of it.

Instead, the blame must be elsewhere. In this case, the global decline is clearly about impeachment.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

July Rate Cut Odds Still 100%

Despite today's jobs report, Implied July rate cuts odds are still 100% but a second cut is now priced out.

Nearly 50% Odds of "At Least" 3 Rate Cuts by December

In the last month the odds of interest rates cuts by the Fed have soared.

Half-Point Rate Cut Odds Explode to 71% - So What? It Doesn't Matter!

The odds of a 50 basis point rate cut on July 31 topped the 70% mark in the wake of a dive in leading indicators.

Rate Cut Odds Soar on Weak Data

A month ago, Fed Fund Futures implied a 72.9% chance of at least one hike. They now imply a 38.9% chance of at least one

Rate Cut Odds Dip Below 50% from 92% a Week Ago

The market has given the Fed a free swing as rate cut odds dip to 47%.

Christmas Impeachment Stocking: There's Nothing In It

The Democrats have made the weakest case for impeachment since Andrew Johnson in 1868.

Rate Cut Odds Shrink Dramatically Following FOMC Decision

The odds the Fed Funds Rate would be 1.75% to 2.00% fell from 54.2% yesterday to 0% today.

Powell Testifies to Congress: July Rate Cut Odds Jump

Jerome Powell told Congress "Risk that weak inflation will be even more persistent than we currently anticipate."

Rate Hike Odds Dive: Any Rate Hikes in 2019? Sucker Rally? Musical Tribute!

Stocks recovered from a huge move lower after a speculative WSJ report on a new data-dependent Fed. Any hikes coming?