The “Stop Boris” campaign is in full swing, but it’s as likely to be as much of a success as the “Anybody But Trump” Campaign in 2016.
Stop Boris Theory
- Boris has to beat out all of the other Brexiteers. He may fail.
- If Boris survives to the final round, he still has to beat out someone who promises to secure a deal.
- Tories will rally around the second choice.
For starters, don’t confuse betting odds with true odd. Betters are not reliable predictors of elections. Bookies arrange their books (or at least attempt to), based on bets people make. The bookies don’t care who wins or loses if their books are properly balanced. Betting is not a scientific poll.
Missing the Boat
An alleged Tory “Polling Expert” says Boris Johnson Fails to Appeal to Floating Voters Needed to Win Election.
Tory peer Lord Hayward said there was a “striking antipathy” towards the former Foreign Secretary in traditional Tory areas like the Home Counties.
The peer said whoever becomes the next Tory leader must win over those who voted Leave in 2016 if the party is to stand any chance of victory.
However, he said they must also be “transfer-friendly”, meaning they appeal to floating voters more interested in competent government.
By that measurement, Mr Johnson scores badly compared to leadership rivals Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt. “Boris is pitching to MPs at the moment saying ‘I am the one who will win’,” Lord Hayward said.
Remainer Sap
Hayward does not provide “expert analysis”.
Instead, Hayward provides heaping cups of Remainer sap in the form of the same misguided Remainer theories that led to the demise of Theresa May.
Delusional Remainers
Similarly, Independent writer John Rentoul misses the mark by a mile with his analysis: Boris Johnson is going to blow it – and it will be Michael Gove who will pip him to become prime minister.
These people are delusional Remainers.
Rise of the Brexit Party
- Gove and Hunt are as pathetic as Theresa May.
- Wishy-washy compromise is not the way to go.
- Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party provides all the evidence one needs.
MP’s Rally Around Boris
Eurointelligence provides excellent analysis of what’s really taking place.
We are full of admiration for the sporting spirit of the British media. But leadership race feels to us like a bit of a misnomer for what is currently dominating Tory and UK politics. It is not really a race. It may not even be a competition. Boris Johnson has been in pole position from the start, and he is now building on his lead.
The Times has a story this morning that three Remain-supporting Tory junior ministers are supporting Johnson. They said that he is the only candidate who can save the party from extinction. Self-preservation – not Brexit – has suddenly become the main issue for the Tories. Johnson is the only candidate with a chance to defeat Jeremy Corbyn in a general election. MPs have strong views on Brexit. But they have even stronger views on the importance of holding their own seats. They are supporting the leader most likely to ensure their political survival.
The main effect of Farage on British politics is not his own election results, but his impact on the Tories. Like Farage, Johnson draws on the benefit of a simple message. Farage frames the argument as one of Brexit versus betrayal. For Johnson it is a choice between Brexit and the extinction of the Tory party.
The whole stop-Boris campaign some MPs talked about never made sense to us because of the way the vote is structured. Starting Thursday next week, MPs will vote for a shortlist of two candidates in four elimination rounds. The remaining three votes will take place June 18, 19 and 20. Johnson has so far received public endorsements by forty MPs, which will be enough to get him into the third round of voting. Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt have twenty-six each.
Tory members will then choose one of the two from the shortlist. We know that Johnson is the strong favourite among the party faithful. If he were to drop out for some reason, we expect the winner to be one of the other Brexiteers – Dominique Raab for instance. We doubt that Tories will vote for Gove, given his support for Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement. A recent story in the Daily Telegraph claimed Gove proposed a Brexit extension until 2020 in a cabinet meeting. That makes him essentially unelectable in view of the Farage threat. We cannot see the Tories voting for any candidate who fails to deliver Brexit before general elections. And these might arrive early, given the narrow majority in the House of Commons.
Self-Preservation
Eurointelligence commented “MPs have strong views on Brexit. But they have even stronger views on the importance of holding their own seats.”
Bingo.
Change UK Provides Lesson in Reality
The misguided set of eleven “Change UK” MPs is now down to five.
“Change UK” is a new political party formed by former Labour and Tory MPs who wanted to Remain.
What the hell kind of change is that?
Dire Results
Amusingly, Change UK Lost Six of its 11 MPs After Dire EU Elections Result.
Six of Change UK’s 11 MPs, including its spokesman, Chuka Umunna, and interim leader Heidi Allen, have abandoned the fledgling party after its dire performance at the European elections.
Message is Clear
Change UK will soon vanish. It elected zero MPs in the EU parliament elections and will elect zero MPs in the next UK general election.
Six Change UK politicians already abandoned the party out of self-preservation.
The best way for politicians to keep their job is to deliver Brexit.
Neither Hunt nor Gove will do that.
One way or another a die-hard no-deal Brexiteer (Johnson or Dominic Raab) will properly deliver Brexit.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
It’s not just Tories who need the Brexit issue resolved to avoid political catastrophe. We’ve reached the point where it is now in Labour’s/Corbyn’s interest to kill the issue and hopefully (for him) have it diminish in importance. This further increases the odds of No Deal.
The calculus has changed. Corbyn previously assumed that Brexit chaos/delays would harm the conservatives to the benefit of Labour, resulting in him being able to call for a general election and take power. However, the recent EU elections suggest otherwise. Labour would lose seats to the Brexit Party and LibDems if a general election were held soon. This is political suicide for Corbyn. The only way for Labour (and the Tories) to improve their standing is for Brexit to be resolved ASAP and for their indecisiveness and disunity to fade from voters’ memories before the 2022 elections. If Corbyn wants to become PM his only hope is to get the discussion back to issues more favorable to Labour (i.e. NHS funding).
Here’s what I expect to happen:
At this point, the above is literally a win for everyone except for the LibDems, who nobody cares about anyways.
You have the long and the short of it.
But I personally think that there is so much poison in each party that they will split by varying degrees.
“I keep seeing Nigel’s name mentioned, but where does he fit in this picture?”
Good question. Unknown answer.
It depends on elections and the timing of them. If there are elections soon, for any reason, he may become the next PM.
If BJ delivers Brexit and a year passes and people are happy, the BrexitParty vanishes.
The longer things go without an election, the less likely Nigel fits in the picture.
Living in the UK what has surprised me is the anger and rage of ordinary people at the entire political class. People feel that if the political class wont do Brexit then what is the point in voting ? Idiotic people like Letwin, Cooper, Grieve et all don’t realise the fires they are playing with. People like those mentioned are so arrogant that they think they know best and I can see people like that will flounce out of their parties causing major splits in the main parties.
Thanks Mish, I do not understand the British political system at all. I have seen Nigel Farage interviewed several times by Tucker Carlson and he seems (to me, anyway) to be the most sensible politician the Brits have.
Our political system in a nutshell……
There are 650 constituencies in the UK. Each one votes for an MP. The political parties put up candidates in these constituencies for election. The candidate in each constituency with the most votes wins, there is no transferring of votes from losing candidates.
After a general election, there will be 650 MPs elected to Parliament all representing various parties. Normally the party with the most MPs get to make their leader the Prime Minister. The party with second most MPs becomes the opposition, and their duty is to question and expose the party who won as best they can. A vital part of the process.
Nigel Farage leads the newly formed Brexit party. At the moment they have no MPs as far as I know. To become Prime Minister, Farage will need to get his party to run in a general election, and with 326 seats or more. For the time being, Nigel Farage’s political weight is the mere threat that he might do this and destroy the existing political parties.
I have cut some corners in my description, but I hope that it gives a good overview.
Globalists’ puppets are all the voters get to choose from.
I keep seeing Nigel’s name mentioned, but where does he fit in this picture?
Johnson a ‘die hard’ Brexiteer?
They chose him to run the Brexit campaign because they thought that it would give remain a better chance of winning. Brexit won despite him. I doubt Boris has a Brexit bone in his body. That said, he probably doesn’t have a remain one either. I think he will go for a hard Brexit just because he now sees the need to do something whilst in power, he will want to be remembered for something. Brexit is going to that memory.
It seems the current era is marked by the worst kind of people being propelled to leadership positions: The era of dregs to flotsam.
That’s the property of scum – it floats on top.
More seriously – this is a matter of negative selection. Very few decent (and intelligent enough to “see unseen”) people would consider moving into politics when we all see what happens there. Thus the majority of them are those who are inclined to mud wrestling and have very few chances of succeeding out of politics because that is the only thing they have been doing so far and are not much of a value on labour market.
“the most improper job of any man, even saints (who at any rate were at least unwilling to take it on), is bossing other men. Not one in a million is fit for it, and least of all those who seek the opportunity.” – J.R.R Tolkien
I do hope Johnson wins.