Jobs Establishment Survey

  • Jobs November: 261,000
  • Jobs December: 184,000
  • Jobs January: 273,000.
  • Jobs February: 273,000.
  • Jobs Nov-Feb: 991,000

Employment Household Survey

  • Employment November -8,000
  • Employment December +267,000
  • Employment January -89,000
  • Employment February +45,000
  • Employment Nov Feb: +215,000

U3 Baseline Unemployment

  • U3 November: 3.5%
  • U3 December: 3.5%
  • U3 January: 3.6%
  • U3 February: 3.5%
  • U3 Net: 0.0%

U6 Unemployment

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  • U3 November: 6.8%
  • U6 December: 6.7%
  • U6 February: 7.0%
  • U6 Net: -0.2%

What's Happening?

  1. In December and January, warm weather padded construction jobs.
  2. In January and February, government hiring padded jobs.
  3. In both cases, seasonal adjustments compounded the improvement.

Convergence

  • We have seen these kinds of divergences before and they converge over times.
  • However, the reports often converge due to revisions in one direction or another.

What is more likely in this case?

Given the huge seasonal adjustments and escalating coronavirus threat, I suggest the next set of revisions will be a convergence towards lower jobs and increasing unemployment rather than the other way around.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Solid Jobs Report but Divergence Between Jobs and Employment is Still Strong

Today’s employment report shows a robust increase of 235,000 jobs. And for the first time in many months, the rest of the report was good as well.

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The BLS reports jobs rose by 273,000 in February but interest rate yields and the stock market are down big.

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Jobs Report: Payroll Miss +164K, Nonfarm Wage Growth Anemic +0.1%

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Job Report: Weak Earnings, Unemployment Rate Up, Upward Revisions

Job growth was a modest 128,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.6%. Revisions added 95,000.

Hot May Jobs Report: Employment +223K, Private Wages Rose $0.08 Per Hour

Jobs exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate edged lower to 3.8% as the participation rate fell.

Jobs Report Badly Misses Estimates: 130,000 Jobs with Only 96,000 Private Jobs

The jobs report dramatically missed expectations today, especially with private jobs.

Jobs Rose by 304k Although Employment Fell by 251k: Unemployment Rate 4.0%

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 304,000 but employment fell by 251,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.0% from 3.9%

Shocking Fact in Today’s Job Report: Employment Stalls

Initial Reaction Today’s employment report shows a robust increase of 227,000 jobs. The good news stops there. The rest of the report was horrific.