Massive Release of Sulphur Dioxide
We now have further evidence of hidden coronavirus cremations in China.
https://twitter.com/inteldotwav/status/1226267582740811777
Tweet Chain
- Data from http://windy.com shows a massive release of sulfur dioxide gas from the outskirts of Wuhan, commonly associated with the burning of organic matters. Levels are elevated, even compared with the rest of China.
- From the same time, using the same scale – notice that the emissions are heightened across the board. Only other city that comes near to it is Chongquing, which is also afflicted by the coronavirus.
- A couple distinct possibilities: This is a power plant releasing all this gas. Unlikely, considering how deviant the numbers are from the norm. No other city comes close to how much SO2 is being released from Wuhan.
- A second one: Wuhan is burning municipal trash and possibly contaminated animal carcasses. Possible, but why would they not just dump it where they usually do?
- And the third and most morbid: Dead bodies are being burned on the outskirts of the city, the death numbers are way higher than the CCP is letting on about, and things are really, really bad.
- I don’t know the relative probabilities of these events, make up your own mind as to which is most likely.
- Also note that I changed the scale displayed to view only the peaks, look at concentrations above 500ug/m^3 to see the real story.
- Current SO₂ levels are extremely elevated, at 1700ug/m^3, where 80ug/m^3 is considered dangerously high.
Sign of Mass Cremations in Wuhan
Also consider Rise in Sulfur Dioxide Could be Sign of Mass Cremations in Wuhan
The article refers to the above Tweets and also mentions two other possibilities.
- According to the Department of Public Health of the U.S. state of Georgia, crematories release a wide variety of chemicals besides SO2, such as “mercury, dioxin, hydrochloric acid, nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide, and dioxins.” Twitter user Vet Watching pointed out that the elevated SO2 levels could also be explained by the burning of tons of contaminated medical waste.
- Environmental scientist Dr. Jorge Emmanuel was cited by Health Care Without Harm as saying that the burning of medical supplies releases a number of pollutants, including “fly ash; heavy metals such as arsenic, chromium, copper, mercury and lead; acid gases such as hydrogen chloride, hydrogen fluoride, sulfur dioxides, and nitrogen oxides; carbon monoxide; and organic compounds. “
Chris Martenson Takes That Data Seriously
Update on the corona virus by @chrismartenson. It is well done by someone highly trained in pathologyhttps://t.co/SVhl0UOUeU
— Dave Collum (@DavidBCollum) February 10, 2020
I highly recommend playing that video.
Bullet Trains
Travel China reports on the Chongqing – Wuhan Train
- Thirty-one pairs of bullet trains run between Chongqing and Wuhan
- Duration: around 5.5 – 7.5 hours
- Running Distance: about 900 kilometers (559 miles)
- Top Speed: G type: 300 km/h (186 mph), D type: 250 km/h (155 mph)
- Major Stations along the way: Yichang East, Jingzhou, Enshi
- Operated at: Chongqing North Railway Station, Wuhan / Hankou Railway Station
Those trains are no longer in service. Wuhan is locked down.
5 Million Leave Wuhan
Flashback January 26, Global Coronavirus Cases Jump 50% Overnight, 5 Now in US
Mr. Zhou said more than five million people have left Wuhan, leaving about nine million. Many residents hail from around the region and normally leave town for Lunar New Year, and it isn’t known how many specifically fled because of the virus.
My Jan 26 Comments
- “5 Million Potentially Infected Fled Wuhan”
- “Let that stat sink in along with the fact that the incubation period is up to two weeks and mutations could be higher.”
For that observation, I was accused of fear mongering.
Escape From Wuhan by Plane
On January 28, I noted Many Planes Actually Made it Out of Wuhan Yesterday and Today.
Coronavirus May Infect Up to 500,000 in Wuhan Before It Peaks
Bloomberg reports Coronavirus May Infect Up to 500,000 in Wuhan Before It Peaks
“That would potentially mean at least 1 in 20 people would have been infected in the city by the time the epidemic peaks.”
Jim Bianco’s Latest
Feb 7 – Hubei, 6K tests/day. 30% neg. So 1.4 tests for a pos result. Also need 2 neg tests to be cleared as “recovered”
Hubei hit their test limit in Feb 4, same day the virus growth rate peaked.
Detailshttps://t.co/PuczDgIg4w@MishGEA @ErikSTownsend @chrismartenson pic.twitter.com/qtlNFLHFE9
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) February 10, 2020
Wuhan Coronavirus Testing Capacity
Bianco’s Key Ideas
- On February 4 they hit the ceiling on the number of tests that can perform. This assumes no tests are no mistakes, no patients having multiple tests, and it assumes the negative test rate of 30% is constant every day.
- In other words, the officials in Hubei province cannot keep up and are reporting what they can do, not how much the coronavirus is actually growing.
Economic Impact
The Economic Impact is Massive due to supply chain disruptions.
Apple, travel companies, and carmakers are among those hardest hit right now.
Wuhan Crematory 127 Yesterday, This is 4-5 Times Normal Rate
Yesterday, I posted Wuhan Crematory 127 Yesterday, This is 4-5 Times Normal Rate
Two days ago I commented Coronavirus Super-Spreader Infects 57 in Hospital
If I am not mistaken, this data all seems to fit together nicely.
I would rather be mistaken.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
10% of ‘confirmed’ cases have reached a conclusion.
The death/recovery rate is currently 25%. 1 out of 4 have died.
90% of ‘confirmed’ cases are still sick. In a month we will know more.
The course of the disease is 1 – 2 MONTHS. That is NOT good.
Outside of China, of the 48 resolved cases, 46 recovered, 2 died. That’s the number we should be looking at because for whatever reason, the only confirmed cases in China are quite ill at the point they are tested.
On topic with the Coronavirus, now there are reports saying that the incubation period may actually last up to 24 days. I really hope that’s not the case
Are they burning bodies in Norilsk, Russia too? link to i.imgur.com
Is that organic matter ?
What s being measured is SO2. Both here (the map of area around Norilsk) and in the Wuhan area map provided by Mish. Organic matter is a red herring.
Coincidentally, both areas are full of heavy industry, use coal and one has a large steel mill while the other has a nickel mill. In both cases the values were spikes above the usual values.
The cremation story is BS.
So the guy working at the crematorium saying he has more bodies then he can handle is lying too ?
I don’t know and that is a bullshit argument. We are talking about a SO2 map that Mish posted and claimed “No other city comes close to how much SO2 is being released from Wuhan.” I just proved otherwise and it took me 5 minutes looking around at windy.com to find out.
Nobody bothers to check anything. Not even Mish. Just repost whatever bullshit is on Twitter (or 4chan where the Wuhan map was first posted) and make up arguments that fit the narrative.
This area matches the SO2 cloud: link to i.imgur.com
Filled with concentrated heavy industry.
The cremation story is bullshit.
If nothing else, the Coronavirus epidemic is an interesting study in mass communication. I have seldom seen so many who know so little comment so much on what can’t be known.
Here’s one thing I can say with a reasonable degree of certainty: while it is impossible to know what is truly going on in China due to official Chinese information being completely untrustworthy, we will be able to trust official reports from other countries like Japan and European nations, and probably official US reports as well.
Here’s an interesting infographic from the South China Morning Post, some of the info being more interesting than other. Toward the bottom they show a lot of the wild animals sold at the Wuhan Fish Market where the outbreak most likely originated.
What are the W.H.O. and C.D.C saying about this ? This is clearly a contagion situation in China.
It would be helpful if we knew the location of the crematoriums and coal fired plants.
What are they referring to when they say the virus will “peak”? Didn’t the video say it’s more contagious than the flu?
More fear mongering.
Wuhan has been a “smog city” for a very long time. This is their daily air quality index since mid December: link to i.imgur.com
Here are the most accurate numbers I’ve seen coming out of China so far. These are from an actual doctor on the front lines. He gives a lot of good numbers in the article, here’s only one, and he’s talking about the mortality rate of the very sick people in the intensive care unit, not the mortality rate of people who contract the CoV. Read the entire article. But here is one quote:
“Based on my clinical observations, this disease is highly contagious, but the mortality rate is low. Those that progressed into the life-threatening stage often occurred in the elderly already with chronic diseases.”
“As of Jan 28, of 138 cases, 36 were in the ICU, 28 recovered, five died. That is to say, the mortality rate of patients with severe conditions was 3.6 per cent. Yesterday (Feb 3), another patient died, bringing the mortality rate to 4.3 per cent. Given patients in the ICU, it is likely to have more deaths. The mortality rate is also likely to edge up but not significantly.
“patients with severe conditions” is the key. The total mortality rate is much much lower.
Still an issue in calculating CFR, but estimates provided. Onset to death and onset to recovery are an average of 22 days.
tldr: We don’t really know, but it’s probably much less than the alarmists claim.
The pyramid illustration explains the point pretty well.
The 0.8% – 0.9% CFR is probably closest to the truth. My guess is that it’s still too high.
It certainly is looking that way. I think we can say, factually, that MOST of the people testing positive in Wuhan are testing positive AFTER becoming quite ill. There is enough commentary to this effect.
Hidden in the paper I posted is a link to a spreadsheet of all non-China patients – where the OPPOSITE appears true. Of 290, roughly half have not been hospitalised and were presumably picked up through contact tracing or quarantine – and of the 144 that have, 25 have already been discharged.
I also think (hope/pray) that this will also be milder outside of China because of a lower prevalence of pneumonia – all forms – in other countries (ie, I think the potentially 8-10 times higher prevalence in China is probably indicative of either air quality or genetic issues that make Chinese people in cities more susceptible when something like this comes along). My only worry at this point is %s. 5,000 extra people needing intensive care would cause our British health service to collapse, I suspect.
Latkes, precisely. As I pointed out yesterday, the mortality rate for Americans who go to the hospital this year with the flu is 7%. So if this doctor’s numbers are ballpark to what’s happening in the rest of China, then his 3.6% sounds encouraging.
Yeah, but “don’t ever compare this to flu”. This actually puts things into a much better perspective. Not that I expect the panicked masses to care.
Hopefully by now this comment is buried enough layers deep that nobody besides yourself noticed I compared it to the flu… 🙂
I noticed !
The diamond princess will give us an idea because hopefully they will test everyone and from that calculate how many have lesser symptoms from all infected.
More figures and calculations here
The overall death rate may be low, but if 1 or 2% of a population requires intensive care for a couple of weeks in a quarantine ward, then the medical system breaks under the stress. Think about your own area, is your medical system set up to handle 1 or 2% of the population possibly entering quarantine with full-blown ARDS care for a couple weeks, on average? Even if the disease spread is over a year or so, the system still is overwhelmed.
Wow, conspiracy theory much?
I mean he’s backing up his “conspiracy” so…
That was meant as a reply to one of the other commenters. My bad.
No problem
omg is this from the Onion?
Scary.
How do you know it will peak when 500000 have it? In my mind that’s just more people to spread it around. Would that possibly change whate if it were bio-engineered?
“whatever math model”.
There is a report out that close contact is not required for transmission. The virus “hangs” in the air This could be the explanation for the increase in cases on the ship due to air recirculation and the bump in cases of hospital personnel
Flights worse for air re circulation.
If you read what the Chinese guy actually said, although he talks about aerosol transmission he then warns against close family gatherings. So it is possibly a translation issue and he meant droplet transmission.
Measles and tuberculosis have this ability but it is pretty rare. More research needed I suspect.
In other words……..everyone on the ship is doomed.
Confirmed transmission routes of the novel coronavirus include direct transmission, contact transmission and aerosol transmission, a Shanghai official said on Saturday.
“Aerosol transmission refers to the mixing of the virus with droplets in the air to form aerosols, which causes infection after inhalation, according to medical experts,” said Zeng Qun, deputy head of the Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau.
“As such, we have called on the public to raise their awareness of the prevention and control of the disease caused by family gatherings,” said Zeng during at a daily media briefing by the municipal government regarding efforts to contain the spread of the virus.
Experts explained that direct transmission refers to infection caused by inhalation of air close to a patient who sneezes and coughs, while contact transmission occurs when a person touches an object tainted with droplets containing the virus before infecting himself through subsequent contact with the membranes of his mouth, nose and eyes.
The government has urged residents to avoid gatherings, open windows to help with ventilation, practice good personal hygiene and regularly disinfect their homes, especially areas like door handles, dinner tables and toilet seats.
Mish, I’ve studied power usage for residential settings. Power usage goes up when people stay home. They use more power than they ordinarily would. Industry also uses power when workers are present, but they use a lot of power even when they aren’t. There is more usage overall when people stay home.
It makes sense that power usage in Wuhan and other cities would rise dramatically if everyone is quarantined. It’s cold in China now. People need heat, They burn more heat at home as they don’t turn their thermostats down while they are at work since they aren’t at work.
I’d totally expect more SO2 emissions during a quarantine than during a non-quarantine. That’s not a suprise.
I’m by no means suggesting that the situation isn’t worse than China says it is but I’m absolutely saying that a rise in SO2 emissions isn’t the smoking gun everyone is saying it is.
This isn’t evidence of anything except higher power usage. That’s literally what happens when people stay home.
Nothing to see here, move along.
If you look at an earlier post by Anda, there is a link to satellite data.
Bluntly, first we need proof of the SO2 before we try to explain it.
And there isn’t any. The skies over Wuhan are clear.
The virus is real. The suffering and death is real. It is the natural consequence of overpopulation, poor environmental controls, poor sanitation, poor political decisions, etc
What is unreal is the level of speculation and number of conspiracy theories. It appears that people can’t help but imagine the worst: SO2 levels, mass burnings, soylent green and so on.
And then, some people will try to gain at the expense of those that are suffering. I expect to see “charities” being set up soon to “help” those who are suffering. Of course, the money will funnel to those who set up the charities. Watch out for the unscrupulous who try to take advantage of situations like this.
Also, the amount of S02 needed to be picked up by instrumentation would require the burning of 100’s of thousands of bodies, as there isn’t much released from one body burning. That kind of scale cannot be hidden by China. It’s a conspiracy theory to state that the rise in SO2 can be attributed to mass deaths. Occam’s Razor is being violated left and right here.
Yes. But as they say, embellishing or exaggerating a tragedy sells newspapers.
Sadly you are completely correct. Many will attempt to profit from this by setting up fake charities. Even “real” charities keep a significant portion of donations to pay for fundraisers, managers, etc, and only a portion of donations gets to the actual people the charity is designed to benefit. Where you can, the best form of charity is donating your own time or services, or making in-kind donations, such as food to a food bank.
Agree. Donating time to help others is far more rewarding than giving money.
You mean like our governments and the WHO ?
An interesting point. Who do you believe? Who is telling the truth? Who is exaggerating? Who is covering up?
Frankly, I don’t trust much of the information from any of the “sources” regarding this story.
Which is better? official government data; anecdotal information; stories from reporters who sensationalize; conspiracy theories from internet sources; etc
I have no idea. But when you look at the sheer number of crazy conspiracy theories on the internet; it makes it difficult to believe any of them. Even if eventually, one of them turns out to be true.
Of course, only time will tell.
Exactly. Every agency has a motivation to conceal the truth, if the truth is ugly.
For me it is just a question of keeping an open mind, always applying an amount of cynicism or critique, and just trying to order it all somehow by keeping what I know is reliable in the foreground, and the rest just laid out as possibility more or less likely. What is obviously unfounded or invented gets binned. What to do.
“it makes it difficult to believe any of them. Even if eventually, one of them turns out to be true.”
Whether it is vise to believe in something highly uncertain, is not dependent on whether it turns out to be true or not. It doesn’t magically become rational to believe someone is unusually good at picking lottery numbers, or stocks, just because the one you happened to believe in, happened to win one day. Ditto conspiracy theorists.
Theorists are theorists, they explore ideas, just as scientists theorise and discard for the closest fit. If people don’t do that, including examining if there is conspiracy ( because they believe it is possible ) , then basically they are being stupid. That doesn’t mean that because they believe their theory eventually that it is true, but it then is up to others to bring it down, or sideline it for lack of evidence or for incoherence.
We should approach all information that way, and as you know, reputations come and go, often being misused along the way. So even relatively credible sources of information need to be checked for error, which is what we and many others do all the time, by cross comparing and looking for inconsistencies.
What is burdensome is where false claims and conclusions are pushed on us, and there the conspiracists are a long way behind for their lack of manner. Much harder to deal with is trying to rebuff a seeming concensus, because it is conspired ( taken in ) by so many. Look at history and where whole populations participated in being misled, you will find examples that are definitely not theory.
still peddling Malthusian Theory of Populatio nonsense
Manila City Density 41,515/km2
Mexico City Density 6,000/km2
São Paulo City Density 8,005.25/km2
Overpopulation of any species often leads to nature resetting the balance “naturally”. Humans are the only species that can control their environment to overcome nature to some degree. As a result we have expanded the human species to almost 8 billion. We are a very clever species, because we are pushing the limits of what we can sustain.
To be able to sustain the present number of humans on our planet requires far better controls and management of the necessities of life; water, food, air, land, energy etc.
It isn’t impossible, but its getting harder and harder to do. And lately, we have not been doing a very good job.
Consequences of our poor management include global warming, pollution, species extinctions, desertification, etc.
It is not a lack of resources (as you imply by invoking Malthus), but rather poor management of those resources.
There was another big jump in infections on the Cruise ship, as 66 more infections were detected. Cases on the Cruise ship are now up to 135, including 23 Americans. An American woman who was infected said “It doesn’t even feel like a cold. To be perfectly honest, I wouldn’t have known that there was anything wrong with me if they hadn’t tested me.”
It is more evidence that the true case number is probably much higher than reported, and the true CFR is much lower. Many cases are probably very mild, and not being detected or included in the official statistics.
Too early to say. Incubation might tend towards the longer number for example, those infected are maybe a week or so on. In a month we will likely have clearer CFR and scale of severity from western data .
What I did find interesting is that the people who develop the worst symptoms seem to take a lot longer to get them. People with milder forms get ill a couple of days earlier. Which I think may be positive – presumably the severe cases’ immune systems are not up to the task. Which I think is better than the cytokine storm scenario. Ie: boosting your immune system with sleep and vitamins and sunlight is probably safe to do.
OTHER FACTS YOU SHOULD KNOW ABOUT CORONA VIRUSES
Including the newly mutated form of the virus, there are a total of seven coronaviruses that can infect humans, the CDC says.
Corona viruses are not new. They were first identified as RNA viruses in 1970.
While most of the early reports involving coronavirus were among animals, coronavirus antibodies were reported in humans as early as 1974. So, strains of corona virus didn’t just recently make a jump from animals to humans as widely reported.
Glycyrrhizin, an active component of liquorice roots, and replication of SARS-associated coronavirus
Still peddling supplements as the cure for everything, Bill?
Here Is The Cure For 2019-nCoR Coronavirus
Vaccine-Induced Side Effects Due To Fill Hospitals In China Instead of Coronavirus Infections
By Bill Sardi
February 10, 2020
Coronavirus takes a turn for the worse: link to americanyellowvest.wpcomstaging.com
I think a dose of realism is needed. What this yellowvest guy has described is just the flu in terms of how it spreads – droplet, saliva, faeces. There is nothing particularly surprising about that and to be frank, the only one that is important is the first. You are more likely to come into contact with droplets than the others.
With 40,000 cases and a time lag, the rise in daily deaths was always going to continue for some time – the increase overnight is not a surprise. However, as i posted in another of Mish’s topics last night, this is in the context of a population that is possibly 8-10 times more susceptible to pneumonia than the US. We don’t know if that is due to bad data, air pollution, hygiene, smoking.
Outside of the US, we have a few hundred cases and some “super spread” events that have taken place in confined environments. In a pub, in a ski chalet, in a cruise ship. I suspect that we WILL see a significant spread in the UK at least (particularly since despite the health secretary’s tough stance on quarantine rules, we are still flying in several thousand people a day). But we still don’t really have a view on lethality and we have little data on the condition of people in non-Chinese hospitals. Are they mild or non symptomatic cases effectively just in quarantine, or are they severe?
I think it will be another week or two before we start to see deaths outside of the mainland. But it won’t really be until we see thousands of cases in the UK (ie at the point where the NHS starts to struggle) that we will understand the true impact.
I agree. Outside of a few specific spreading events, so far, spread outside of China has been limited. This is important, as it allows the individual cases to be specifically investigated, and anyone potentially infected can be isolated and quarantined. It’s an important line of defense that has not, yet, been breached.
It is important to remember that it’s also a line of defense that is fragile, and can be breached, and most likely, will eventually be breached in some countries, if not all. Still, it’s a fight that can, and must be fought. Each day that the line holds is one day closer to Summer, and as it warms and the humidity rises, the R0 should decline. So, each day that we don’t see cases breaking out in the wild outside of China is a good thing.
Here we are evening of the 10th of February in my side of the world. Chris Martinsons video is already out of date and it’s far worse than he has outlined.
The Who have finally admitted that there’s an extreme risk to the rest of the world.
One thing is for sure. The WHO is running with the political drum rather than the truth.
It’s been my opinion that the UN should have been scrapped years ago – here’s just another example of a UN department incompetancy.
Trump Fired Entire US Pandemic Response Team in 2018
Better to use the Soylent Green tanks. The virus will get killed in the processing and the protein can be used to feed livestock.
Worth a read. Including the link to reddit, which questions the data (ie it’s a forecast not a reality).
Satellite is here
but does not offer that much detail.
Thanks. If i overlay those images onto the map of China, then the only significant bloom of SO2 in February is in the far south of the country, a long way from Wuhan – Guangxi. I don’t believe they are shipping bodies 800 miles south to burn them.
There is a big bloom on 24th January, but that seems to stretch north to south across many regions. But if you look a week or two previously there is a massive bloom in the south china sea. My guess is that this is from the Taal volcano (started erupting on 14th January) and that the 24th January spikes are just residues from that being blown across the country.
So i am calling BS on this one 🙂
Same. The daily mail carried the story which surprised me, you’d think they’d do a bit of background. The reports out of China regarding fatalities I take more seriously, but the information is not verifiable.
“A modelling study by researchers from Imperial College, London has found that the mortality rate for patients tested for the disease in Wuhan is 18 per cent.” Telegraph
But that has caveats regarding overall CFR.
Another sixty on the diamond princess is !!!
So it is very contagious, the missing detail is fatality ratio of infected. Even 2%, of every billion infected is twenty million, not good – a lot of SO2 🙁 .
And if you google “map of coal-fired power plants in china” and click on images, they’re all concentrated in those same areas. Coal is a major contributor to SO2 in the atmosphere.
If you study previous much older charts from that series they are similar I think. The site which issues them underlines they are forecasts only, I guess their model is based on an average measurement taken at some point in time