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Tale of Two Headlines, Toll Brothers Has Record New Home Sales But Misses Estimates

Fox News and Bloomberg have markedly different headlines and reporting of luxury home builder Toll Brothers.
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Toll Brothers

Record New Contracts

Fox News reports Toll Brothers Luxury Home Builders Hit Record in New Home Contracts.

Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. reported in its fiscal year 2021 third quarter earnings results on Tuesday that the firm hit a new record for new contracts on the quarter, exceeding Q3 of last year by 35% when new contracts hit a previous all-time high.

The company also saw all-time records in both dollars and units for homes in backlog, with value surging 55% from a year earlier to $9.44 billion, and units spiking 47% to 10,661.

Not Good Enough

Bloomberg saw things this way: Toll Brothers Misses on Orders as Luxury-Home Sales Falter

Toll Brothers Inc. reported weaker-than-expected order growth as soaring home prices started giving buyers sticker shock. 

Analysts expected a bigger jump in orders for Toll, which, along with other U.S. builders, has been benefiting from the pandemic-driven rush to buy spacious homes in the suburbs. While the company missed the consensus estimate, orders reached a record for Toll’s fiscal third quarter, according to the statement.

Drop in ‘Crazy High’ Lumber Prices Will Save $40,000 Per Home

In related news, Toll Brothers CEO says Drop in ‘Crazy High’ Lumber Prices Will Save $40,000 Per Home

Doug Yearley, CEO of luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers, told CNBC on Wednesday that lumber prices coming off record highs will serve as a tailwind in the face of other “cost pressures.”

“Lumber is down $40,000 a home. We’re going to see the benefit of that in the second half of ’22,” Yearley said on “Mad Money.” ”[Lumber] got crazy high. We knew it would come back,” he added. “We’ve been very happy with how quickly it’s come back. I think it’s going to stay down.”

Lofty Expectations

I am amused at the headline reporting difference but even more amused that contracts are up 35% from a previous all-time high and that is considered "faltering".

It takes massive expectations and beats just to stand still. That's how crazy things are.

What happens when sales really do falter?

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Price Pressures Coming

New Home sales and Home for Sale 2021-07

On Tuesday I commented New Home Sales Rise But Supply Jumps to Most Since Nov 2008

New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction

New Homes For Sale By Stage of Construction 2021-07

For Sale Details

  • The 230,000 under construction is the most since November of 2007.
  • The number of homes for sale not yet started is 104,000. That's the most since June of 2006.

Balloons in Search of a Pin

Earnings estimates, expectations, and the entire stock market all seem like balloons in search of a pin. 

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