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The 2-10 Yield Curve Inversion Recession Signal is the Strongest in Over 40 Years

The recession bells keep ringing louder and louder.
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Data from US Treasury, calculation and chart by Mish

Data from US Treasury, calculation and chart by Mish

Chart Synopsis 

  • There was no 30-year long bond issuance in the yellow highlighted interval.
  • The 10-year to 3-month inversion is 64 basis points, the deepest since January of 2001.
  • The 30-year to 3-month inversion is 57 basis points, the deepest since November  of 2000.
  • The 10-year to 2-year inversion is 71 basis points, the steepest since October 1981 (see chart below). 

10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Yield 

Chart and spread via St. Louis Fed, annotations by Mish

Chart and spread via St. Louis Fed, annotations by Mish

Never before have we seen such strong inversions except right before or in recessions.

It will not be different this time. A recession is on the way, assuming it's not already started.

Existing Home Sales Decline 9th Month, Down Another 5.9 Percent

Existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors via St. Louis Fed

Existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors via St. Louis Fed

On November 18, I commented Existing Home Sales Decline 9th Month, Down Another 5.9 Percent

Existing Home Sales Crash

  • Existing home sales are down 28.4% from one year ago.
  • Existing home sales are down 31.7% since January.

That's a crash. And never have we seen such declines other than in recessions. 

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Not to worry, Biden says there is no recession and the economy is strong. Not only is it different this time, it's very different this time. 

This post originated at MishTalk.Com.

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