Chart Synopsis
- There was no 30-year long bond issuance in the yellow highlighted interval.
- The 10-year to 3-month inversion is 64 basis points, the deepest since January of 2001.
- The 30-year to 3-month inversion is 57 basis points, the deepest since November of 2000.
- The 10-year to 2-year inversion is 71 basis points, the steepest since October 1981 (see chart below).
10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Yield
Never before have we seen such strong inversions except right before or in recessions.
It will not be different this time. A recession is on the way, assuming it’s not already started.
Existing Home Sales Decline 9th Month, Down Another 5.9 Percent
On November 18, I commented Existing Home Sales Decline 9th Month, Down Another 5.9 Percent
Existing Home Sales Crash
- Existing home sales are down 28.4% from one year ago.
- Existing home sales are down 31.7% since January.
That’s a crash. And never have we seen such declines other than in recessions.
California Faces a $25 Billion Budget Problem With Ongoing Deficits
Please note California is spending like the tech boom would last forever. Ahead of Recession, California Faces a $25 Billion Budget Problem With Ongoing Deficits
Governor Newsom is unofficially running for president in 2024. It will be official the day president Joe Biden announces he will not run for reelection.
Had Democrats retained the House, free money bailouts to California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, etc., would have been massive.
Huge Layoffs Including Thousands at Amazon and FedEx in Peak Shipping Season
Finally, please note Huge Layoffs Including Thousands at Amazon and FedEx in Peak Shipping Season
Amazon, Facebook, Redfin, FedEx, Stripe, Twitter and tech companies in general are all laying off workers.
Not to worry, Biden says there is no recession and the economy is strong. Not only is it different this time, it’s very different this time.
This post originated at MishTalk.Com.
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SHADOWSTATS DAILY UPDATE –- November 22nd to 28th [Updated November 22nd, 11:00 p.m. ET -– IN THE NEWS: MONEY SUPPLY IS DRIVING THE SURGE IN INFLATION, DESPITE SOFTENING ANNUAL GROWTH: October 2022 “Basic M1” Money Supply (Currency plus Checking Accounts), held 120.3% above its Pre-Pandemic Trough, minimally off peak, also holding at a 52-year high level of systemic liquidity, having absorbed and held the equivalent of 23-years of normal Monetary Stimulus in the 2.8 years since the Pandemic Shutdown. Even the headline Aggregate Money Supply M2 has absorbed 14-years of normal stimulus. Given that extreme, inflation bloating cannot pass easily, without some meaningful reduction in Money Supply, well beyond just slowing money growth.
Exacerbating circumstances, excessive Federal Government Spending and the resulting Federal Debt Outstanding are at all-time highs, excessively bloated, pushing against the Debt Ceiling. Now that the Administration has backed off playing its pre-Election inflation games with oil prices, watch for continuing, excessive headline inflation to resume its upside surge in the months ahead, with the U.S. Economy increasingly sacked by FOMC rate hikes. Previously discussed here, FOMC rate hikes aimed at curtailing inflation in an overheating economy do little of the kind, if the economy is not overheating (the current circumstance). Continuing rate hikes will only pummel further an already moribund economy, also previously discussed.
The ECB guaranteed a lot more bank-holding company debt than the FDIC. That
destroyed money velocity over and above that in the U.S.
I’m getting 3.25 on a savings account
The hair is good, but the face is creepy.
And don’t forget to add the property tax of $2,500 or so…. per month!