There are no month-over-month numbers for food, shelter, or medical care. 
No Data Just Magic
Please consider the Consumer Price Index release for November 2025.
BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 due to a lapse in appropriations. BLS was unable to retroactively collect these data. For a few indexes, BLS uses nonsurvey data sources instead of survey data to make the index calculations. BLS was able to retroactively acquire most of the nonsurvey data for October. CPI data collection resumed on November 14, 2025.
Despite the lack of data, the BLS did somehow conjure up unadjusted year-over-year changes.
With a bit of magic, ta da …
CPI Year-Over-Year Percent Change
Ta Da Year-Over-Year Numbers
- CPI: 2.7 percent
- CPI Excluding Food and Energy: 2.6 percent
- Shelter: 3.0 percent
- Medical Care Services: 3.3 percent
- Rent of Primary Residence: 3.0 percent
- Owners’ Equivalent Rent: 3.4 percent
- Food at Home: 1.9 percent
- Food Away from Home: 3.7 percent
The Consumer Price Index for December 2025 is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, January 13, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).
Hopefully we will have something other than magic.
Looking Ahead
For 2026, the two key items will be shelter and health care. Shelter will matter more for the CPI. Health care will matter more for the PCE and that is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
The CPI consists of items directly paid by consumers. The PCE includes items paid on behalf of consumers including Medicare, Obamacare, and corporate health care plans.
Medical care costs are going to explode in 2026, even if Congress works out an extension to Obamacare.
I estimate that health care (excluding Obamacare) will add about 1.5 percentage points to the PCE. Factor in Obamacare and the numbers are more like 1.7 or 1.8 percentage points.
For the Fed to hit it’s 2.0 percent target, very little else can go up.
Related Posts
December 8, 2025: Health Care Inflation Bomb Makes the Fed’s 2 Percent Target Almost Impossible
Let’s discuss 2026 health care premiums and what they mean to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
December 9, 2025: How Much Will 4.5 Million Florida Residents Pay for Obamacare in 2026?
Here’s some interesting health care math on Obamacare in Florida.
Good Morning America!
Healthcare is now approximately 16.66 percent of the entire PCE basket, much larger than all durable goods combined, and only 1.5 points behind housing.
2026 medical-cost trends are running 8.5 percent to 9.5 annual percent increases. Those projected increases will add 1.4 to 1.6 percentage points to headline PCE inflation before food, energy, shelter, or tariffs move prices at all.
This ignores the huge Obamacare impact on 1 out of 6 people.
The only way to hold the line on PCE is if the price of rent crashes or a strong recession cuts demand for all other goods and services.
I run through some options in the above links.
Thank you for your attention to this matter!!!
In november gasoline prices rose according to BLS with 3.0%. I will guess that you will have to do som “catch u” to the downside, all the time gasoline has fallen from 1.90 a gallon til 1.70 so far in December,
Shelter has been trending down for many years now, why will that go up, when US have increasing unemployment?
MoM overhang CPI from December 2024 was 0.4%, so prices have to go up 0.4% MoM just to prevent CPI not to fall more, and the overhang from janaury 2025 is 0.5%
IMO will CPI fall in december 2025 and january 2026. Tell me why inflation will not go under 2%
Prices will go down until April 2026.
The CPI has been Orwellian fiction for over 40 years.
Why would Trump objectively report numbers that don’t make him look perfect? He does not do that.
Mish, it’s “Thank you for your attention to this matter”. (How Trump has been signing off his tweets).
Thanks
Fixed
At this point 2.7% doesn’t match the eyeball test. I’m more inclined to think Trump found someone to lean on to fabricate the numbers than I am to believe we saw a big easing in inflation.
Things are so good that TACO had to go on TV last night to remind us how good we all have it. Things are so good in the House that Mike Johnson has to remind us repeatedly that he hasn’t lost control.
Four legs good, two legs bad. Nothing to see here, back to work Boxer(s)!
The CPI number is total bs similar to most government figures. Wouldn’t surprise me if taco’s minions were at work.
Its because every drug advertised on TV cost in the thousands of Dollars if you don’t have commercial (non government) health coverage. And if you say something against prescription drug advertising or taking One for every ailment then you are considered an anti cancer who is against science and big pharma