Today, in a speech to Parliament, UK prime minister Theresa May pledged to stand down before the next phase of Brexit negotiations if Parliament would vote for her deal.
Assuming this is not one monstrous lie, May will be gone on or before May 22.
She immediately became a lame duck with her announcement.
Bercow’s Threats
Commons Speaker John Bercow’s threatens to hold off on allowing another vote on May’s deal unless there are changes.
Q. What’s Bercow’s Angle?
A. He does not want Brexit.
Bercow looks like an ass for his rulings.
https://twitter.com/nmdacosta/status/1110930327030116352
MPs have literally just voted to pass a Business Motion that disapplies the precedent for the purposes of indicative votes, yet the Speaker apparently is saying that it would not be in order for the Government to do so for a third attempt at a Meaningful Vote. https://t.co/mk8PUwZKNk
— Chris White (@cgwOMT) March 27, 2019
One way or another, there will be at least one more vote. If it’s close and fails, there will be two more votes.
Unicorn Sideshow
Bercow did allow votes on numerous unicorns that either May will not allow or the EU will not accept.
- B – John Baron’s – No deal – Backed by Conservative MPs John Baron, David Amess, Martin Vickers and Stephen Metcalfe, the motion proposes leaving the European Union without a deal on April 12.
- D – Nick Boles’s – common market 2.0
- H – George Eustice’s – Efta and EEA
- J – Ken Clarke’s – Customs union
- K – Labour’s – Customs union and alignment with single market
- L – Joanna Cherry’s – Revocation to avoid no deal
- M – Dame Margaret Beckett’s – Confirmatory public vote
- O – Marcus Fysh’s – Contingent preferential arrangements – A group of Conservative MPs, including Marcus Fysh, Steve Baker and Priti Patel, have signed a motion that calls for the government to seek to agree preferential trade arrangements with the EU, in case the UK is unable to implement a withdrawal agreement with the bloc.
Only B and O are worth discussing. B will not happen, but the EU would accept it and May would likely go along with it. Thus it’s theoretically possible, but it will not happen.
Option O does not need a vote. It would happen by default if there is a no-deal Brexit.
The rest are all unicorns. Either May will not accept them or the EU will not accept them.
Odds Are the Deal Passes
https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1110975158217519104
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chair of the European Research Group, has just told Sky News that he thinks the chances of Theresa May’s deal being passed are now “much higher than they were”.
If DUP can be persuaded to back this deal, it’s all over but the shouting and crying.
Perhaps it takes a 4th meaningful vote and some sort of subtle but meaningless word change by the EU.
Boris Johnson to Back May’s Deal
Please consider Boris Johnson to Back May’s Brexit Deal After Resignation Pledge.
Johnson once called May’s deal a “suicide vest”.
Q. What does Johnson want?
A. That’s easy, to be the next Prime Minister.
From this side of the Atlantic, I don’t care who the next UK PM is other than that person be a hard-core Brexiteer.
It is easy for a dedicated, stubborn PM to get his or her way. Theresa May just proved that, even if she had to fall on her own sword to do it.
The next PM will have tremendous latitude with the EU including threats of stopping payments if the the EU does not negotiate in good faith.
Johnson or any other hard Brexiteer will not give up fishing rights or Gibraltar. Nor would Johnson increase payments. Instead he would work on negotiating a decent trade deal.
Deal Now Workable
With May out the way, her deal becomes workable.
- Germany will be all too willing to go along because its exports will soon collapse.
- A hard-core Brexiter can refuse to make payments. The EU would sue. So what? There is no enforcement procedure if the UK refuses to pay.
- Sovereign nations have lots of latitude. Look at US sanctions on Russia, Iran, Venezuela, etc.
Hello, Borris Johnson?
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Boris has always been something of a clown, but I question his sanity if he wants to move into 10 Downing. Who looks at this jumble of dysfunction and says hey, put my name on this mess?
May’s entire reign was a calculated attempt to fall on her sword. She was willing to endure the slings and arrows of the country for the riches that will surely follow for being a good servant. I’m not sure what Johnson’s role would be now that Brexit has been magnificently bungled, but surely these guys must realize that regular people are getting angrier. This game of politics of, by, and for the elite can’t continue much longer before these politicians have to be behind bulletproof glass at all times.
I guess he’s willing to roll the dice and hope that his successors will be the ones to deal with the wrath.
I fear you are right. People on this site wonder why I get so excited about Brexit. It is no fun watching your own country descend into chaos.
Slave revolts, the more chaotic the better, are about as much fun as slaves ever get to have.
The only ones who dread them; are the slave owners, and the bankster trash for whom the plantation, including it’s “workforce,” is merely “collateral.”
Is that it? No apology?
If May’s deal does not pass, and there will be at least 1 vote on it, then the most likely thing is no-deal Brexit
The ERG MP Steve Baker has gone berserk in parliament threatening Rees-Mogg and the liar Johnson with hell fire and the death of the first born and eternal damnation. The revolution is eating its own.
I’ll repeat my post from your previous piece. The word you are looking for is prorogue. Since the fixed term parliament act the Queen no longer has the power to dissolve Parliament. It always helps to be on firm ground if you are going to be snarky.
DUP say no
Stimpson: “May has her failings, and she did make some stupid mistakes (calling a snap election…), but since there is no majority for any option she was dealt a poor hand. Whoever is up next will face the same reality.”
If indeed May is gone by the 22, the “next reality” is Brexit, not anything else.
The only things at that point to do are negotiate removal of the backstop and work out a trade agreement.
Remain is out of the question. A referendum is out of the question. No matter how incompetent Johnson or another PM might be, the path is set and the UK will not turn back.
Johnson pledged to tear up the deal. He could indeed do that if the EU will not negotiate in good faith. I believe he would.
There is about a 2% chance Tories elect a remainer. Start from there.
Mish
“Oh Mish, what Queenly intervention?”
Dear Avid Remainer, if you are from the UK, you clearly do not know how your country runs.
Theresa May could ask the Queen to dissolve parliament. If the Queen did so, othing would change. There would not be new elections. The same parliament would go into session the next day.
Then there would be another vote. Will it come to that? No, because Bercow will cave in, Parliament will change the rules, or May will get a wording change.
You are letting your asinine support for remain get in the way of any kind of realistically clear thinking, and you sure as hell do not know how parliament works, or who the EU will deal with (a head of state, not the UK parliament).
Please stop making a fool out of yourself.
Her Majesty would not ‘dissolve’ Parliament merely ‘prorogue’ it. What that means is that this current Session would terminate. However, it would them require a State Opening where Her Majesty would make a new speech. Once this has been done and voted upon (Mrs May needs to win that) then you are right. She could bring back her cursed deal for another vote just as it is. Bercow couldn’t say a word about it – that is proper procedure.
Further you are right that the EU can only negotiate with a Government and Cooper/Boles/Letwin/Benn et all for all their arrogance are not the government. In our system Treaties are Royal Prerogative and not the business of Parliament. The Queen’s Government negotiates these, not Parliament. Remainiacs are getting carried away with themselves but we must not let them trash the Constitution in their blind love and devotion to the tyrannical EU.