Hard Hit Age Groups

Every age group was clobbered with employment losses in the initial phase of the Covid pandemic especially those aged 16-24.

In April, employment in age group 16-19 declined by 32%, age group 20-24 by 30%, and age group 25-34 by 14%. 

Age group 35-44 was the least impacted, down 10%.

That makes the April range 10%-32%.

Current State of the Recovery

The recovery was strongest in the age groups hit the hardest. The entire range now is -7% to -4% with 65+ down 7%. Age group 35-44 is down only 4% (3.64%). 

Stalled Recovery

The jobs recovery has stalled and did so at different times for different age groups.

Peak Decline and Recovery Months

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  • Age Group 16-19: -32.34% in April, -1.11% in October, -5.05% in January
  • Age Group 20-24: -29.50% in April,  -6.18% in November, -6.81% in January.
  • Age Group 25-34: -14.45% in April, -6.2% in January
  • Age Group 35-44: -10.13% in April, -3.60% in September, -3.64% in January
  • Age Group 45:54: -13.91% in April, -5.43% in December,  - 5.33% in January
  • Age Group 55-59: -12.67% in April, -5.91% in October, -6.72% in January
  • Age Group 60-64:  -12.17% in April, -3.56% in August, -4.24% in January
  • Age Group 65+: -14.53% in May, -4.81% in November, -7.39% in January
  • All Age Groups: -14.92% in April, -5.43% in October, -5.48% in January

Unemployment Rate Dives as People Drop Out of the Labor Force and Life

Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted 2021-01

Earlier today I noted Unemployment Rate Dives as People Drop Out of the Labor Force and Life

That decline in the unemployment rate is a statistical anomaly related to a BLS adjustment in population. 

The Labor Force declined by 406,000. Also note the population normally rises month-to-month but instead it fell by 379,000.

The BLS made this notice today: "Household survey data for January 2021 reflect updated population estimates." 

Year-over-year employment numbers tell the real story. 

Note that year-over-year percentages will start looking ridiculous in March due to easy comparisons. 

Mish

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