The Jobs Recovery Stalled Months Ago For Many Age Groups

Hard Hit Age Groups

Every age group was clobbered with employment losses in the initial phase of the Covid pandemic especially those aged 16-24.

In April, employment in age group 16-19 declined by 32%, age group 20-24 by 30%, and age group 25-34 by 14%. 

Age group 35-44 was the least impacted, down 10%.

That makes the April range 10%-32%.

Current State of the Recovery

The recovery was strongest in the age groups hit the hardest. The entire range now is -7% to -4% with 65+ down 7%. Age group 35-44 is down only 4% (3.64%). 

Stalled Recovery

The jobs recovery has stalled and did so at different times for different age groups.

Peak Decline and Recovery Months

• Age Group 16-19: -32.34% in April, -1.11% in October, -5.05% in January
• Age Group 20-24: -29.50% in April,  -6.18% in November, -6.81% in January.
• Age Group 25-34: -14.45% in April, -6.2% in January
• Age Group 35-44: -10.13% in April, -3.60% in September, -3.64% in January
• Age Group 45:54: -13.91% in April, -5.43% in December,  - 5.33% in January
• Age Group 55-59: -12.67% in April, -5.91% in October, -6.72% in January
• Age Group 60-64:  -12.17% in April, -3.56% in August, -4.24% in January
• Age Group 65+: -14.53% in May, -4.81% in November, -7.39% in January
• All Age Groups: -14.92% in April, -5.43% in October, -5.48% in January

Unemployment Rate Dives as People Drop Out of the Labor Force and Life

Earlier today I noted Unemployment Rate Dives as People Drop Out of the Labor Force and Life. 

That decline in the unemployment rate is a statistical anomaly related to a BLS adjustment in population. 

The Labor Force declined by 406,000. Also note the population normally rises month-to-month but instead it fell by 379,000.

The BLS made this notice today: "Household survey data for January 2021 reflect updated population estimates." 

Year-over-year employment numbers tell the real story. 

Note that year-over-year percentages will start looking ridiculous in March due to easy comparisons. 

Mish