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The Market is Now Forecasting More Than 3 Hikes in 2022

Investors increasingly believe the Fed will hike sooner and more often in 2022.
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CME Rate Hike Odds for December 2022 as of Dec 21, 2021

CME Fedwatch Tool has rate hike odds for every FOMC meeting through the February 23, 2023 meeting. 

The above chart reflects CME data as of December 21 , 2021. 

See Addendum - That Chart and the one that follows seem to be inaccurate.

Rate Hike Details 

CME Rate Hike Odds for December 2022 as of Dec 21, 2021 DETAIL

Over-Under Line

I added the last two columns to the CME data.

The over-under line for hikes is slightly more than three as betters see things. A sum of percentages shows a 53.7% chance of more than three hikes. 

Moreover, there is a non-miniscule 17.2% chance of 5 hikes and a 24% chance of 5 or more if you think the betting line is correct. 

I don't, and if you don't either, sophisticated investors might consider Eurodollar calls or futures (an interest rate bet not a currency bet). 

Note: I did not price options, I am just speaking my mind. I have not traded eurodollar futures or options for a long time. 

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Addendum!

I captured those charts last night around Midnight. They look different this morning. 

CME Rate Hike Odds for December 2022 as of Dec 21, 2021 A
CME Rate Hike Odds for December 2022 as of Dec 22, 2021 DETAIL

This afternoon it appears the market is pricing in between two and three hikes, not more than three as I captured last evening. 

I do not know if there was this much of a change or I captured data at a bad time or the data was just not correct. 

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