Truly disappointing to read so many negative comments that always have to place blame on someone and make accusations.
The NAR releases a report and suddenly they’re self serving liars that can’t be believed. Developers and builders are all thieves and crooks. The FED is stealing from the poor to give to the wealthy. Private equity funds and foreigners are taking all the housing stock away from buyers.
To those who feel the need to blame someone, maybe you’re just on the wrong side of the market. We’ve been in a bull market in real estate from the 2010 bottom until 2021. If you missed the boat because houses were cheaper last year, that’s your poor timing or FOGI (fear of getting in) on your part. I’ve been reading about the “top” in the “bubble real estate market” for years now and it’s still going. That’s not to say real estate, stocks, bonds etc aren’t expensive now, but so what? Can you tell me exactly when and at what price they’re going to turn.
Pay attention to the market instead of trying to belittle the bearers of valuable information and trying to predict the future based on your market position and personal feelings. There’s a lot of money to be made from markets to those who pay attention and leave their egos at home. Markets always tell you exactly which way they’re headed.
StukiMoi
2 years ago
“Amusingly, the NAR argued in 2007 that there was a shortage of houses. Clearly there wasn’t.”
Of course there was. For mature-market, long lasting but decaying, products without a shortage; the least desirable 3rd (or whatever share) is pretty much given away for free (clunkers, Iphone4..). Which is not the case almost anywhere (even in Detroit the real cost of a house is high) in the US wrt houses.
In any mature free market, meaning markets without artificial constraints on suppliers, costs end up capped by cost of production. Which is remarkably low for a shack with some walls, a roof, a door with a padlock, and perhaps a window or two. Even plumbed and wired.
Similarly: Any time you introduce artificial barriers to entry, you definitionally end up with a shortage. And house production is nothing at all, aside from just a pile of arbitrary barriers to entry. All in order for housing to serve not as covered space, but rather as a vehicle for the now all important redistribution of all value-add from those who produce it, to idle FIRE leeches so dumb they believe the mold in their house walls somehow adds value while the themselves sit there like idle dunces.
RonJ
2 years ago
“The United States is in the midst of a severe housing shortage as a
result of a persistent underproduction of housing during the last decade.”
How many illegal aliens are coming across the border every month, now?
A whole lot fewer than the number of houses all those young, working age aliens could build, if not barred from doing so by the junta and it’s sycophant army of leeches.
thimk
2 years ago
NAR wants 5 million more homes to list/collect commission.
Doug78
2 years ago
Very good analysis!
Casual_Observer2020
2 years ago
The Fed cant risk asset deflation and recession like 2008-2010 so they have decided to live with asset inflation. Many forget we actually have twin deficits when you look at pension debt. What a world we live in compared to previous eras. The Fed continues the look at this hand not that hand parlour trick.
The sad thing is many/most Americans are so hopelessly indoctrinated, they keep falling for the Fed’s theft rackets. Instead of realizing they could have 3x the house(s) for 1/3 the mortgage, if they weren’t forced to subsidize a leeching class of useless dilletantes living off of nothing other than crass theft by the Fed.
Casual_Observer2020
2 years ago
Asset values continue to go higher. There is no way this isnt going to end badly. We are now in greater fooldom territory.
Markets adjust to demand and supply changes. I see a permanent housing shortage in many urban areas with little vacant land and booming demand. With immigration at record levels, I see even more increases in demand and stagnant supply. The silver lining on supply may be unused commercial property. If reduced demand for office space continues, at least some office space can be redone for residential housing.
That’s the fundamental difference between markets and rackets. The former adjusts, since suppliers (existing and potential) are free to supply more.
The latter, don’t adjust. Since Zoning and land use laws designed solely to extract value from productive people, in order to hand it to useless but connected leeches, prevent the necessary supply from materializing.
Even in Monte Carlo, there is plenty of land available to 10+x the number of housing units without sending building costs too far out of whack. Nowhere in America are things even remotely tight, were it not for arbitrary, artificial constraints aimed solely at robbing the useful and productive for the benefit of the useless and connected, under one harebrained pretense or another.
EGW
2 years ago
It’s all about interest rates. Most home buyers are just interested in what their monthly payment will be, not how much the house actually costs.
First off, I don’t trust the NAR which was telling everyone it was a “great time to buy” in Summer 2008. However, I do acknowledge there are some areas with super-hot housing markets like Florida as people flee California and New York/NJ and try to arbitrage the advantages of remote work in states without income tax.
HOWEVER, I’d like to point out, as our esteemed president has informed us, that there are over 600,000 US deaths from coronavirus, and apparently more are happening/on the way. The last time I checked, those folks lived SOMEWHERE – where is the glut of homes being sold because of deaths? Not happening.
Also, the Total Fertility rate of the US population declined, yet again, to an uncomfortable1.6; well below the 2.1 level necessary for a stable population (2 parents, + .1 for accidents/early death before reproduction). So, people aren’t having kids. One would think that reduces demand, but perhaps its immigration.
Except we just came through four years of an administration which was incredibly hostile to immigration. We added between 1.0-1.1 million citizens/year for each of the last four years; however each year the rate of immigration growth declined. Population trends suggest a rising US population; however, with declining (and probably severely declining 2020/2021 immigration rate) immigration, that might not bear out as much as is expected.
So this then raises the question – what the heck happened to cause such immediate tightness and demand for housing outside of local/regional movement??? Warehousing, eviction moratoriums, and urban flight; with BX and BLK thrown in for good measure are probably causing some local disruptions, but with these three headwinds (deaths, decreased births, reduced immigration), it becomes really hard for me to accept this as a sustained phenomenon.
With a sever lack of knowledge, I will attribute this to ‘escape from the city’, where the housing stock is old, dilapidated and neighborhoods unsafe.
xbizo
2 years ago
I think there are two elements that you could investigate and add to this conversation, Mish. First is the cost to build. 1959 market and government requirements are quite different from today, killing the low end of the market. In 1959, you could build and house a family in a 1200 square foot house and just the basics in plumbing, heat and electrical. Minimal code requirements, environmental mitigations, inspections, etc. You build a hundred houses in months. Now you’re be lucky to build a hundred houses in years. Cadillac tastes for beer budgets.
The other trend is multiple families living in single family homes. Has been a thing in California for decades, especially for immigrant families which may put four families in a household.
It’s a strange brew – designing and building for the affluent, while the non-affluent adapt to the stock available.
Yeah Florida code especially has really changed in the last few decades. You can’t build those 1200 sq ft match stick homes any more. Everything has to be hurricane rated now and that means the base cost is way higher for better materials. Then add in energy efficiency (have to be insulated) etc.
That’s part of the reason they don’t build so many 1200 sq ft homes anymore. Have to build larger (1700+) for it to make sense.
Eddie_T
2 years ago
The rapid price appreciation has created FOMO among young people who want to start a family. They view it as now or never……they’re afraid that in 2 years or 5 years time they’ll be completely priced out…and cheap mortgage money is definitely an incentive at this present moment.
In reality, the low rates are more important than getting a good deal on price. Over the 30 years, the leverage inherent in a typical FHA 3.5% down mortgage is huge, and given the historical rate of inflation in home prices, even if you pay substantially more than the house is worth, you are very likely to be made whole…if you don’t have trouble meeting the debt service.
The housing market isn’t monolithic either. Changing demographics and people moving to where the jobs are means that some high prices are apt to stay relatively high, even in a correction. I believe that will be the case here. I expect there is at least a temporary shortage here. Prices have moderated slightly here…but I think it’s a breather more than a sign of a top.
The hardest part these days for many young people is the need to be mobile to work. There are FAR fewer jobs/careers that let a person remain in the same spot for 10-20 years that is needed for the real gains. Many have to move every 2-5 years either because a promotion requires it or the job goes away and they have to move for another one. Those people are really SOL when it comes to buying homes.
They can rent from me, if that helps. But I’m full up again at the moment. 🙂 About time too.
With rents now higher here, and with four mortgages about to be refi-ed at 3.375% for 30 years, I will once again have decent cash flow. The last year has been tough, but it’s getting better now. That isn’t a great rate for an owner-occupied home these days, but for investment property it’s fabulous, the best loan deals I ever made.
davebarnes2
2 years ago
Any product of the NAR is junk. Pure and simple.
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result of a persistent underproduction of housing during the last decade.”
New all time market highs today and the overnight crew has the premarket pumped for tomorrow. No news, no matter, stocks only go up.
Sounds like 2005-2006.