The Real-Time Poverty Rate Rose to 11.7% in November

Mish

After falling between April and June thanks to stimulus checks, the poverty rate has increased every month since.

The Real-Time Poverty Estimates During the COVID-19 Pandemic  through November 2020 rose to 11.7% in November.

Key Details

  • The poverty rate fell by 1.5 percentage points from 10.9 percent in the months leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic (January and February) to 9.4 percent in the three months at the start of the pandemic (April, May, and June). 
  • Poverty rose by 2.4 percentage points from 9.3 percent in June to 11.7 percent in November, adding 7.8 million to the ranks of the poor. 
  • Poverty has risen each month since June, even though the unemployment rate has fallen by 40 percent (from 11.1 percent to 6.7 percent) over this period. Despite the decline early in the pandemic, poverty is now higher than it was at the start of the year. 
  • The entire decline in poverty through June can be accounted for by the one-time stimulus checks the federal government issued, predominantly in April and May, and the expansion of unemployment insurance eligibility and benefits. In absence of these programs, poverty would have risen sharply. 
  • The increase in poverty in recent months was more noticeable for blacks, children, and those  with a high school education or less. For blacks, poverty has risen by 3.1 percentage points since June. 
  • Poverty has also risen noticeably for those with a high school education or less, from 17.0 percent in June to 22.1 percent in November. 

Poverty Rate Trend

Poverty Rate Percent 2020-11

The Census Department sets the official Poverty Rate.

The number is very stale. The report was released on September 15, and the rate is as of the end of 2019.

  • The official poverty rate in 2019 was 10.5 percent, down 1.3 percentage points from 11.8 percent in 2018. This is the fifth consecutive annual decline in poverty. Since 2014, the poverty rate has fallen 4.3 percentage points, from 14.8 percent to 10.5 percent.
  • The 2019 poverty rate of 10.5 percent is the lowest rate observed since estimates were initially published in 1959.
  • In 2019, there were 34.0 million people in poverty, approximately 4.2 million fewer people than 2018.

According to the Real-Time Poverty Model, the poverty rate will rise in 2020. It will be the first rise since 2014.

I expect things will get much worse in December as Unemployment Claims Are On the Rise Again.

Depending on the the Covid stimulus package, things may improve again next year, 

But I doubt that in any meaningful way because the Most Evictions in History Will Start in January as Ban Expires.

Mish

Comments (81)
No. 1-15
Zardoz
Zardoz

Are there no prisons? Are there no workhouses?

numike
numike

America’s hollow middle class
The cost of living has risen, wages have not, and debt just keeps on accumulating.

njbr
njbr

Prince Harry and Meghan Markle are making up for lost time when it comes to establishing their financial independence from the royal family.

Hot on the heels of their whopping Netflix deal (reported to be worth $100m) this week they announced they had signed a multi-year deal with streaming giant Spotify, said by some outlets to be worth as much as $35m.

Emotionally their departure from the royal family was all about their independence; Meghan and Harry wanted to be able to say what they wanted and support who they chose without having to seek permission from Buckingham Palace first.

It was notable that they said their new podcasts, branded as Archewell Audio, “will feature stories of hope and compassion from inspirational guests” and spoke of the power of podcasting to “uplift” people.

goldguy
goldguy

Have we reached the point in this sick economy that we will need to have a stimulus bill from congress once or twice a year from this point forward? It is sure starting to look like it. At this rate, the dollar will become worthless in no time.

Mr. Purple
Mr. Purple

The States will be forced to institute eviction moratoria, especially seeing as the burden of eviction enforcement falls on county sheriffs. How they will assuage landlords remains to be seen. Good thing interest rates are so low, landlords could cash out equity to weather the storm.

njbr
njbr

Boris Johnson calls crisis meeting over new Covid strain....PM may introduce tighter travel restrictions due to rapid spread of virus mutation in south-east England

Realist
Realist

The pandemic is simply accelerating a trend where the middle class shrinks and the rate of poverty will rise. Unskilled or low skilled laborers will find it difficult to maintain employment and certainly will not be able to achieve income growth in a highly competitive world. Countries that will be the most successful going forward will be the countries that do the best job in educating, training, and re-training workers for the modern economy for the lowest cost possible. This puts the US in a bad position because of your very disjointed and expensive educational systems, and your emphasis on leaving individuals to fend for themselves. In addition, most of your companies do not want to pay for education or training of their employees, as they expect someone else to do it.

Centaro
Centaro

Just a cursory observation. It looks like the poverty rate increases under Democrats and falls under Republicans. Guess the Dems want their victims

Call_me_Al
Call_me_Al

Poverty is a relative and ambiguous concept, but the decrease in a dollar's purchasing power, combined with substantial increase in routine expenses that aren't part of the CPI, would imply that the poverty threshold has been lowering over time (see changes in Table 1) -

At what multiple of the current poverty threshold would you consider someone to not be impoverished (or to put it another way, expected to be financially stable)? I suspect it would be a smaller multiple 20 or 30 years ago.

FromBrussels
FromBrussels

...just read in HLN, belgian news paper, that Biden will have 50% women and non whites in his cabinet... What a hypocritical, pathetic, jerky, convulsive socialist policy... hopefully some transgenders and LGB among them and even some pedophiles, why not, we are all creatures of gowd aren t we? Whether male, female, black, white or whatever modern society produces, the ONLY thing that really matters is COMPETENCE, not some, even more polarising, fckn positve discrimination !

Dodge Demon
Dodge Demon

Distribute Magic Markers to each household. With that they can add as many zeros as necessary on whatever Federal Reserve Note(s) they may have in order to survive or be rich, the choice is theirs. This will save on printing costs.

njbr
njbr

Filed under "how to get out of poverty via jobs from the Republican deal makers"...

Foxconn said they didn't promise to build a factory, gave no committments on jobs or investments, but they still want their subsidy from the state of Wisconsin....

....Foxconn claimed it and WEDC had a “mutual understanding” that it would build something more vaguely defined [instead of a factory], “a transformational and sustainable high-tech manufacturing and technology ecosystem in Wisconsin that brings long-term investment and jobs.” However, Foxconn did express openness to amending its contract to allow for more flexibility in what it was building in exchange for lower subsidies.

Eddie_T
Eddie_T

The change in poverty rate so far is a bump in the road. I’m not sure about how that chart is derived, exactly .....because if you look at longer term charts you don’t see that 22% high back in 1989. Not sure what’s going on with that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poverty_in_the_United_States#/media/File:Number_in_Poverty_and_Poverty_Rate,_1959_to_2017.png

According to the long term poverty chart on Wiki, the poverty RATE is phenomenally steady...it cycles up and down in a sine wave between 10 and 15%....all the way back to 1965.

Poverty is a study in human misery, addiction, broken families and incarceration.

It’s certainly true that a good baseline level of a living wage for working stiffs makes poverty less of a political problem....but the idea that poverty is something that can be fixed by policy.....is mostly a pipe dream.

Even Jesus knew that, and said so.

To get out of poverty, by definition, means to acquire wealth. To acquire wealth requires understanding why and how to do that, and it takes good habits,

Which is why you could take some Auschwitz survivor who got out of WWII with nothing but an empty belly and the tattered clothes on his back.....and see him become wealthy in less than one generation.

And why you can take some kid whose GGG grandfather was a slave, put him in public school, feed him free breakfast and free lunch, and he won’t even be motivated to learn to read, his very best hope for any kind of future.

Instead, he will act like you incarcerated him, cop an attitude, pay little attention, and drop out at the earliest opportunity.. He will join a gang in order to belong to a tribe that accepts him, and stand a good chance of going to jail or getting shot.

The best thing anybody can do about poverty is to take steps to not be in it...you are ether part of the problem or part of the solution.

I wasn’t born in poverty, but my family wasn’t that high above the poverty line......I knew I didn’t want to be poor my whole life and I seriously studied how to change my circumstances.....too bad more poor kids can’t figure it out. Some do.....no matter what their ethnicity or how broke a family they’re born into.

When I see that, it makes me hopeful. But it’s a tiny minority of poor kids who can do that.

So we have a “poverty line” that remains remarkably flat-lined, for generations, in spite of all manner of well-intentioned initiatives.

Centaro
Centaro

Looks like it was 1959 not 1989. I'm old enough (65) remember if you didn't work you didn't eat. Looks like welfare was successful in bringing (significantly) the poverty rate, but at what cost. I guess you have to take into account population differences in terms of the number of people in poverty. I think Reagan had it right by requiring work. Looks like poverty rate is a fluctuation compared to 1959. Funny we won the war but why was there all this poverty? Probably the robber barons then (I guess Du Ponts, Rockefellers, etc) were worse than the Bezoses, Gates, Musks of today

Centaro
Centaro

Forced by Liberals and Democrats. What side is Fauci on? What is his agenda?


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