The chart shows the difference between pairs of US treasury notes and bonds.
- 30 Year Minus 20 Year: -0.08 (Inverted)
- 10 Year Minus 7 Year: +0.02
- 10 Year Minus 5 Year: +0.12
- 10 Year Minus 2 Year: +0.39
- 5 Year Minus 3 Year: +0.09
Spreads generally peaked in the March-April period of 2021. The two-ten spread peaked at 1.59 percentage points on March 29, 2021.
Economists watch the 2-10 spread because it typically inverts before a recession. It's quite possible we get no such signal this time.
How fast will the Fed hike?
Traders bet the Fed will get in 6 or this year down from 7 a couple weeks ago. I am sticking with no more than three.
This post originated on MishTalk.Com.
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