by Mish

Whereas Nowcast barely moves week to week, a chart of GDPNow shows significantly more volatility.

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 2.5 percent on October 6, down from 2.8 percent on October 5. The forecasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and third-quarter real private fixed investment growth declined from 2.5 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively, to 2.2 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, after this morning’s employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The model’s estimate of the dynamic factor for September—normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation 1 and used to forecast the yet-to-be released monthly GDP source data—fell from 1.53 to 0.18 after the report.

Nowcast forecast: 1.5 percent — October 6, 2017

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Week Ending October 6, 2017: Highlights

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  • The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.5% for 2017:Q3 and 2.5% for 2017:Q4.
  • News from this week’s data releases left the nowcast for Q3 broadly unchanged and increased the nowcast for Q4 by 0.5 percentage point.
  • Positive surprises from the ISM surveys outweighed negative surprises from employment data.

The charts show a huge reaction to the hurricane on Nowcast but GDPNow had been generally sinking since its initial forecast for the quarter.

Then, in response to construction, autos, and ISM GDPNow jumped far more than Nowcast.

Once again there is a full percentage point gap between the estimates. Mid-week the gap was about 1.3 percentage points.

Hurricane impacts, especially change in private inventories (CIPI) destruction due to flooding on top of wildly changing construction reports makes GDP estimates for third quarter very difficult.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

GDP Forecasts: GDPNow 3.4%, Nowcast 1.9%

The GDP forecasts by the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast are once again not in the same ballpark.

Nowcast Leapfrogs GDPNow in 1st Quarter GDP Forecast

The latest first quarter GDP estimate by the New York Fed Nowcast jumped to a new high of 3.1%.

4th Quarter GDP Estimates: Nowcast 1.8%; GDPNow 2.5%

Apologies for posting late today. Was in Valley of Fire State Park today, and the light was too good to take a break for posting.

Nowcast, GDPNow 2nd Quarter Forecasts Narrow Slightly: What’s Ahead?

On Friday, both the Atlanta Fed and New York Fed updated their GDP 2nd quarter forecasts. The FRBNY Nowcast remained at 1.9% while GDPNow dipped to 2.7% narrowing a once gigantic spread to 0.8 percentage points.

GDPnow, Nowcast Boost Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates

GDPNow upped its 4th-quarter GDP estimate to 3.3% from 2.9% a week ago. Nowcast upped its forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%.

Nowcast 3rd Quarter GDP Estimate 2%, GDPNow 3.7%

We have two revisions coming for second-quarter GDP estimates even as time rolls on. The third-quarter is already a month over. GDPNow has its first estimate, a whopping 3.7%. The GDPNow estimate is 1.7 percentage points higher than Nowcast.

Final Model Forecasts for First Quarter GDP: GDPNow 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

The advance (first) estimate of first-quarter GDP is published tomorrow. The GDPNow final estimate is 2.0%, Nowcast 2.9%

GDPNow 2.5%, NY Fed Nowcast 1.7%; Huge Discrepancies: Why?

The New York Fed released its GDP “Nowcast” today. The New York Fed model expects 1.7% seasonally adjusted annualized (SAAR), a jump of 0.5 percentage points from last week.

FRBNY 4th Quarter GDP Nowcast 1.6% vs. GDPNow 3.1%

In sharp contrast to a GDPNow forecast of 3.1 percent for 4th quarter GDP, the FRBNY Nowcast Model estimates 4th quarter GDP at a mere 1.6 percent.