The BEA reports Third-Quarter 2017 GDP at 3.2%, down from 3.3% in the second estimate.


  • Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the third quarter of 2017.
  • Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 2.0 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.3 percent in the second.
  • The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 2.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 2.7 percent in the second quarter.

GDP Revision History

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Contributions Part 1

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Contributions Part 2

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Major Contributions

  • PCE: 1.49 Down from 2.24
  • Services : 0.52 Down from 1.08
  • Nonresidential: 0.58 Down from 0.82
  • Change in Inventories: 0.79 Up from 0.12

Looking Ahead

Residential investment subtracted 0.18 from third-quarter GDP. It rates to add in the fourth-quarter of 2017 and first-quarter of 2018, barring construction revisions.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Third-Quarter GDP Hits Consensus 3.3% Estimate

The BEA reported the second estimate of third-quarter GDP was 3.3%. The report matched the Econoday consensus.

Third Estimate of 4th Quarter GDP is 2.1%

Given that GDP is one of the most revised measures, the BEA renamed “final” to “third”. The third estimate is 2.1% just a tick over the Econoday consensus estimate of 2.0%.

3rd Quarter GDP Estimates Collapse

In the wake of today’s economic reports, third-quarter GDP estimates from the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model and the New York Fed Nowcast model each plunged 0.8 percentage points.

BEA Revises Third-Quarter GDP Slightly Lower to 3.4%: Real Final Sales Only 1%

Consumer spending, commercial spending and exports were revised lower, while inventories were yet again revised upward.

Nowcast 3rd Quarter GDP Estimate 2%, GDPNow 3.7%

We have two revisions coming for second-quarter GDP estimates even as time rolls on. The third-quarter is already a month over. GDPNow has its first estimate, a whopping 3.7%. The GDPNow estimate is 1.7 percentage points higher than Nowcast.

First Quarter GDP (Final Estimate) 2.0%, a Bit Lower Than Expected

Consumer spending revisions took the 3rd estimate of the 1st-quarter GDP to 2.0% from 2.2%.

New Measures of “Satisfactory”: First Quarter GDP Revised Up to a “Satisfactory” 1.4%

In the third and final estimate of first quarter GDP, the BEA upped its assessment of GDP from 1.2% to 1.4%. The Econoday consensus expected no change.

Despite Robust Retail Sales, the GDPNow Forecast of Third-Quarter GDP Declined

On Friday, GDPNow lowered its third-quarter GDP estimate from 2.3% to 2.0%

GDPnow, Nowcast Boost Fourth-Quarter GDP Estimates

GDPNow upped its 4th-quarter GDP estimate to 3.3% from 2.9% a week ago. Nowcast upped its forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%.