The advance trade data on goods imports and exports took a huge turn for the worse in September.
Advance Trade Data
- The international trade deficit was $108.2 billion in September, up $14.0 billion from $94.2 billion in August.
- Exports of goods for September were $174.2 billion, $3.6 billion less than August exports.
- Imports of goods for September were $282.4 billion, $10.4 billion more than August imports.
The Advance Trade Data is for goods only. Full trade data also includes services where the US tend to run relatively small surpluses.
Goods Balance of Trade Details
Goods Imports and Exports
Trade Synopsis
- Exports steady
- Imports rising
- Deficit increasing
Don’t worry, a recession will help convince consumers to cut back buying stuff they cannot afford.
More seriously, weak agricultural prices help explain why exports have gone nowhere.
Trump’s Threat to John Deere
On September 25, I commented Trump Threatens John Deere With 200 Percent Tariffs, Farmers Would Be Hurt
Trump has gone mad with threats. Tariffs on John Deere would cost farmers plenty.
The price of soybeans, wheat, and corn have plunged, and here is Trump insisting farmers pay more for farm equipment.
Soybean prices are down about 27 percent from a year ago, back to a level seen in 2007.
Dear Farmers
Trump has a message for you: “I promise to make you pay as much as possible for farm machinery.”
Check it out. Trump would put 200 percent tariffs on Deere but 60 percent on China.
Trump Claims Tariffs Will Reduce the Trade Deficit
Trump proposes 60 percent tariffs on China. Would that reduce the trade deficit? Where? How?
On September 26, I commented Trump Claims Tariffs Will Reduce the Trade Deficit. Let’s Fact Check.
Trump’s Tariff Claims on Truth Social
May 31, 2023: Remember, I terminated the worst trade deal in USA history, NAFTA, and replaced it with the best, USMCA. Also got China to pay our great FARMERS 28 Billion Dollars in damages!
Please consider Trump vs Frederic Bastiat: Who Is Right About Tariffs?
Ignorance or a Lie?
Trump claims foreigners pay the bill. That either ignorance or a flat out lie.
US importers can either eat the cost or pass it on. In most cases it is the latter.
But foreign exporters can mask the exports by value added processes that hide the origin of the goods. This adds cost frictions as well, but at a lesser rate.
Tracking the Economic Impact of the Trump-Biden Tariffs
The Tax Foundation Tariff Tracker investigates the Economic Impact of Trump-Biden Tariffs.
Please read the sobering report.
Trump Will Raise Taxes and Increase the Price of Goods
Yesterday, I commented Trump Will Raise Taxes and Increase the Price of Goods
Since tariffs are a tax on consumers, Trump is threatening the largest tax hike in US history.
Please check it out.
Silly Comment #1 “Most people would rather not be dependent on cheap foreign goods and labor, even if it means paying a slightly higher price in the beginning.”
Mish: Someone is smuggling with rent and food.
Not just someone but 40% living paycheck to paycheck
And you are proposing they would gladly pay $500 more for a washing machine, and $10,000 more for an EV to keep jobs here.
Care to think again?
Silly Comment #2 “You are worried he’s not going to get the farmer vote? I’d say he will get 95% of it.”
I am not worried about the farmer vote. But I am tired of absurd comments.
You assume incorrectly that people vote simply based on their own fortunes. People vote for lots of reasons including against their own best interests. Myself included. Part of being an adult is thinking outside yourself and what’s best for the country. Not hard
Name a single benefit of the Tariff Program.
I’ll wait.
Guess who kept the tariffs trump put in place. Biden
And guess who paid, and is paying, for them: Americans.
Disproportionately competent ones to boot.
Of course: In the #DumbAge, competence is unamerican.
We can live without a new kitchen or a dishwasher, with less processed food in restaurants, without Costco in the pantry and the freezer, without a 2,500/3,500SF house doing nothing all day, without $80k cars and without the medical/ pharma mafia. A hundred years ago housewives bought ice from a horse for their ice boxes. GE frigider was invented in 1927. We have bacterias, fungi and sewer in every part of our body causing toxemia, heart problems, cancer…that cost $300,000 to “fix”.
May want to invest in a generator.
So: To sum the “argument” up:
“We” _can_ live like third worlders on the starvation track.
And: Since we can do that, suffering under a government which ensures we _do_ do exactly that, is perfectly a-ok.
Pretty bloody sad for a country where people once walked on the moon, designed and built planes, had roofs over their heads and food to eat, were taught hard stuff like reading and counting, could retire after working their whole life, could see a doctor when sick and all manners of such now unimaginable luxuries.
The workers at the Granite City Illinois US Steel plant kept their jobs
Do they care about me?
Don’t forget inferior products that are produced in a protected environment. American cars from the 70’s were pure junk and probably still are. I no longer buy American autos and thank the Japanese with my car business.
…Now extend that logic to housing and all “real estate”…:
Infinitely more protected; hence infinitely purer junk; than cars in, even places like, North Korea.
Problem is: There are no “Japanese” available, enabling routing around the junk-“owner” protection rackets which effectively bans building what the market demands.
With the result that All Americans will NEVER have access to anything other than pure, protection-protected grotesquely overpriced junk, for both residential and commercial space: Everyone overpaying; everyone getting products much worse than North Korean cars for what they overpay.
And still; the abject idiots attempted passed of as sentient in this here #DumbAge, fall for drivel as trivially obvious as some country where people weren’t even allowed to have kids, somehow beating dumb little overpaying us, “must” do so because they have; like; child labor! Yeah, in, like, the land without children! You know, like, the Man on Teevee, like, said so!!!
The fact that trade and tariff policy is the only issue on which Trump and the Biden administration is in agreement–should give both sides serious pause.
My default setting is that everything the Democrats want ranges from brain-dead dumb (like silly experiments with Minimum Basic Income, for example) to monstrously evil (most else). So when we see the Dems strapping on the pompoms to make Trump-era tariffs even bigger and worse, it’s decision time: either this is the one area Trump is dead wrong about, or the lefties have managed to stumble onto the right answer, despite themselves. Blind squirrels and broken clocks, and all that.
It’s prolly the first thing.
It’s all so brilliant.
China has overcapacity and is an unfair competitor.
They are allegedly paying to ship goods to US.
So to get even, we charge them high tariffs, allegedly making them pay 2× to give us their stuff, to punish them for paying to give us stuff.
And almost B$200 trade deficit with the EU
The sick economy that cannot do anything right; and despite now being captive to expensive US LNG exports as well as soya & corn. Makes the US look like a 3rd world commodities exporter.
If you add inflation into account, it will be near flat line.
Tariff’s don’t even go to us…but the big Gov’t machine and we get to pay higher costs.
Aka….hidden tax, yes?
Letting go of the reserve currency would solve all these problems. The artificial demand for US debt/dollar would evaporate, and the dollar will assume its right place among world currencies – at a much lower rate.
Then the CIA can blow up some more vital pipelines, and presto.
It’s almost as if we need to bring in dozens and dozens of container ships filled with PRESENTS for CHRISTMAS. But that idea interferes with the Biden bad Inflation forever fiction that the right has kept themselves alive with for the last two years.
Everybody is focusing on financial side of tariffs. What about supply chain effect? What if some industrial raw materials and components made in China will not be available any more? Either by coincidence or by secret decesion of Beijing. Part of US manufacturing may collapse. Money are money but we have seen what happened during Covid when physical availability of certain items was a big problem.
Our national industries will get critical supply. Consumers will be deprived ==> inflation.
Tariffs always = inflation
I have mentioned that at least 10 times.
China might respond by cutting off rare earth elements.
Everything currently produced in China was previously produced elsewhere. All of that production can be restored, or done better. This isn’t even rocket science and there is absolutely nothing magical about China.
In fact, the process is already happening – U.S. industrial construction spending remains very strong, even as CRE and RRE flounder about.
“What if some industrial raw materials and components made in China will not be available any more?”
So long as capitalism lives, materials will be available because demand creates supply.
The sooner the world eliminates dependence on a single-National-supplier model, the better we will all be.
Even Ricardo understood that free international trade does not mean “do nothing while your adversaries gain a monopoly on strategically vital goods.”
So do tell where this capitalist system operates. I haven’t seen anything like one for decades.
Trump wouldn’t give a rat’s arse if he accidentally imploded global trade, so long as he can get richer off it.
He gets “richer” how, may I ask?
Before asking that dumb question, you should have looked at Trumps financial history.
Our trade deficit is rising bc DX is down since Feb 2023. 1M DX might rise for a while, testing Sept 2022, which reached 0.886 of Jan 2002 high, before a sharp drop further down.
The dollar index has been stable within a narrow trading range for 2 years, sir.
Trade deficit data you show is a disaster waiting to happen. We are consuming far more that we produce and make up the difference via borrowing the money or selling off our assets. I see no painless way to get it under control. Reducing consumption and increasing production would both be needed. I think the best way is to call BS and tell the persistent surplus countries they either need to get their surpluses under control or we will begin to implementing progressively more stringent trade actions against them until things substantially improve. Would it be a bitter pill to swallow if we told China etc. that you need to find ways to redirect your excess production internally and find ways to use it for the benefit of your people instead of sending it to us in exchange for piles of debt that we will never be able to pay unless the trade imbalances are eliminated.
That’s why China is reducing treasury from 1.3 trillion to 700 billion today.
China is in wore fiscal shape than we are. Their debt levels are worse than ours. Not sure what the solution to our problem is or how it ends.
It likely will end very ugly. I hope I’m gone by then, but I fear for my kids.
Why are you deciding for fellow Americans what they should buy with their own hard-earned money? If someone wants to buy toys from China, or cars from Germany, or coffee from Vietnam, why do you care?
And if those countries (really, individuals within them) don’t want to immediately buy as many American goods or services, but save their profits for awhile, why do you care? They can buy American cars, or NYSE stocks, or Miami real estate now or in the future. And why are you wanting to impose tariffs or ‘rules’ against surpluses of other countries, when those foreign surpluses exist because American individuals and companies like those products at those prices better. Self-autonomy?
Trade imbalances will eventually affect the floating exchange rate, making price differences less consequential. It’s basic economics.
Most people would rather not be dependent on cheap foreign goods and labor, even if it means paying a slightly higher price in the beginning. Once the regulations are eliminated, we’ll have enough competition right here at home to keep prices down.
Someone is smuggling with rent and food.
Not just someone but 40% living paycheck to paycheck
And you are proposing they would gladly pay $500 more for a washing machine, and $15,000 more for an EV to keep jobs here.
Care to think again.
He cannot think. It is obvious.
What food in coming in from China?
Buy a Speed Queen washing machine, they last forever, therefore overall negative on the Krugman scale.
I talked my wife into buying one. it does have a good reputation but is loud as hell. We’ll see how it holds up. Funny you should say that. I did buy her the Maytags when first married, one million years ago, they lasted forever, the new ones not so much.
People struggling with rent and food are buying new cars? No wonder they’re struggling with rent and food.
I remember being a kid in the 60s and 70s. One could buy a decent toaster oven made in the USA (General Electric?) or probably better ones made in Germany e.g. They would work properly and last quite a few years.
Then everything was made in China (thanks, Bill Clinton!) and the quality dropped drastically. The prices did as well, but after 6 months the damn things wouldn’t work and nobody would bother repairing them.
The same for items previously made in the EU. High end stereos e.g. Bang & Olufsen were made in Denmark. Now made in China and sold for the same price.
God I’m glad I’m not 18 years old. What a crap future those kids have.
Obviously tariffs would raise the prices on everything but people have too much stuff already. Bah bloody humbug.
Sincerely, Scrooge
I bought Boeing 50 years ago. Flying smoothly. Nowadays my Boeing is on the ground.
That’s when all the people who would pay extra for US goods disappeared.
I remember making a sales call to a car parts supplier and the signs in the parking lot said “No Foreign Cars To Park Here”. Inside, the factory was full of Japanese plastic moulding machines.
Trump Ally Elon Musk Warns of ‘Necessary’ Economic Collapse if Trump ElectedMusk says everyday Americans must embrace the pain if Trump gets back in the Oval Office
No one has voted FOR a President in many, many years. It only voting AGAINST the other Candidate and the marketing blitz is all geared to this….
Oh yes, Master Elon thinks he’s gonna come in and change Washington DC…yeah, spendthrift politicians are gonna listen to that guy…when Trump has made promises that mean most of the budget is off limits for cuts…let me get my popcorn, gonna be a hell of a show!
I know a particular company that is looking to bring its manufacturing back to the USA from China. For them, tariffs are not the issue. They are worried about China invading Taiwan and the US getting involved. The company fears that they will never get product out of China and will lose their full investment in tooling, raw materials, and manufacturing expertise.
Find a town near the Amish etc in flyover.
US importers can either eat the cost, pass it on, or manufacture in USA. In the face of a giant 200% tariff they will go broke or manufacture in USA. USA needs good jobs for the Dimocrat’s captive welfare class. By simultaneously increasing living costs above transfer payments and offering high paying jobs our social problems are addressed. A hard days work for good pay increases self esteem, reduces crime, and builds a sense of participation and contribution with society.
Getting employers to pay high wages is the tricky part.
Wrong. When the gov sets prices, the money comes rolling in. /sarc
We must blame excess of bureaucracy, regulations, inter state trade barriers, etc. EEUU can forbid chinese goods, but can’t do nothing about african, south american or european countries choosing chinese cars or computers.
Trump ideas have been applied in Argentine or Brasil decades ago, with marvelous results.
Ugh, did you really just say you want the US to go the route of Argentina for the past couple of decades? LOL
John Deer has eleven competitors in the farm equipment market. Farmers are irate that John Deer has new policy prohibiting farmers from repairing their own equipment. Moving John Deer manufacturing to Mexico is a bonehead get woke go broke move that President Trump would seal with a 200% tariff. Farm equipment prices would not increase because John Deer would return to USA and fight back for market share with the same success as Budweiser, Kmart, Gillette, Kamala Harris, and Starbucks.
Kamala doing ad buys in places she shouldn’t have to like VA. Terrible signs for her. Maybe there are enough dead people who vote to pull this out. We shall see
After fighting with Putin, the Hooties and Iran the US is running out of SM-3 (BA+RTX) and Patriot missiles. RTX made a new all time high in Oct. If the Pentagon will not be fully committed to replenish those missiles we cannot defend Taiwan. RTX/BA will not expand it production line. Fourteen countries ordered SM-3 ($15M each). The Line for F-15 ($130 each) and apache helicopters is ten years long. Demand for highly skilled mech workers is high. First we have to fill our depleted inventories before filling foreign orders at higher prices.China is rising competitor. Trump/Harris will expand our national industries in order to avoid a war with China. Lower FFR, higher tariffs and rising taxes collection will fill the gov coffer….The 737 competes with ADS and China.
You are worried he’s not going to get the farmer vote? I’d say he will get 95% of it.
I am not worried about a the farmer vote.
But I am tired of absurd comments.
You assume trump knows how to read a chart. Even if he did, he’s so full of grievances that I kinda doubt the pudding in his skull has room for any more.
Well said. Tyranny Trump, just like Killer Kamala are both part of problem.
What can anyone say about a country where educated people in finance actually believe the CPI calculations are reality based?
Quote of the CENTURY
“Using the CPI as a measure of price increases for 340 million people is even more preposterous than taking the average temperature across 50 states in the US as a meaningful statistic to determine what clothes you should wear today.
Further, the government gets to cherry-pick what items go in the CPI basket and their weightings. It’s like letting a student grade his own paper.
In short, the CPI is misleading government propaganda intended to conceal the government’s atrocious currency debasement.” Nick Giambruno
Let me guess.
Trade deficit is up and job openings are down.
must mean= Orange man Bad cause he wants to create jobs for Americans.
yup, waiters, bartenders and Govt workers…true progress