by Mish

US Treasuries?

The one idea most widely agreed upon is that Trump will spur inflation and treasuries are the last place to be.

This headline says it all.

US Equities?

The nearly always wrong Harry Dent threw in the towel on his stock market crash prediction on December 19.

Please consider Economist who Predicted a 17,000-Point Stock-Market Crash Just 10 Days Ago is Suddenly Bullish.

"Harry Dent is bullish.

Dent, an economist and one of the biggest doubters of the stock market’s rise since the end of the recession, said he no longer believes a crash is imminent for the market after persistently calling for a massive drop over the past seven years.

What changed the mind of the man who said that the market would be “cut in half” in 2011, called for a “year and a half” long crash in 2013, and said the Dow could fall 17,000 points as recently as December 10?

The markets ability to withstand the election of Donald Trump.

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“All of my research pointed to signs that the end was near,” wrote Dent in a blog post last week. “The Dow was set to shed thousands of points in short order. How much has changed since November 8.”

“No matter how irrational this market is, I admit I’ve gotten the timing wrong,” said Dent."

Gold?

I discussed gold on December 27 in Financial Times, Barron’s Tout Death of Gold.

Here are the pertinent headlines.

For Whom the Bell Tolls

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Synopsis

  1. Gold is despised
  2. Treasuries are despised
  3. Harry “wrong way” Dent is suddenly bullish

Magazine Curse

Finally, please consider Dow 20,000: Another Magazine Curse? Amusing Cover Flashbacks From Economist, Newsweek, Others.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Total Returns, Gold, S&P 500, Us Treasury Bonds: Do You Really Know the Facts?

Do you know what the total returns are in various asset classes? Reader Michael pinged me with an interesting chart of Gold vs. the S&P 500 vs. 30-year treasury bonds. Let’s take a look.

Japan Sheds Treasuries for US Equities: More Miserable Timing

If you are looking for what not to do, just follow Japan and do something else, with a bit of delay perhaps.

Gold and the K-Cycle

This post is an attempt to explore the behavior of gold during each season in the Kondratieff Cycle. For newcomers, let’s briefly review Kondratieff Cycle Theory.

Tracking the Amazing Junk Bond Bubbles in the US and Europe

In response to Bubblicious Debate: Greenspan Says “Bond Bubble About to Break”, No Stock Market Bubble, reader AC wants to know how to track it.

Draghi-In-Wonderland: ECB Bond-Buying Announcement

There were wild fluctuations today in European bonds as the ECB announced it would Hold Interest rates at Zero but Taper Bond Purchases.

With Trade Deficits Soaring: Who Will Buy US Treasuries?

"Will there be a mismatch between what the U.S. wants to sell (Treasuries) and what the world wants to buy?"

Bank of Japan Buys Record Amount of Equity ETFs: Once Upon a Time

The Japanese stock market fell, so the Bank of Japan bought more equity funds.

Spotlight on the Timing of Treasury Shorts

The lead-in chart, also posted yesterday, shows the progression of treasury shorts. Let's now look at yields and timing.

Steen Jakobsen on “The Nixon Doctrine”, Trump, Equities, Gold

Three Major Events. Steen Jakobsen, CIO and Chief Economist for Saxo Bank pinged me regarding “The Nixon Doctrine”, Trump, Equities, Gold, and major events in his life.