Voting Intention Little Changed

Dec 2-3 ComRes Poll Raw Numbers

My lead chart was produced by plugging the latest ComRes Poll results into the Electoral Calculus Regional Predictor

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Those numbers are from Table 23 in the ComRes poll.

Seat-by-Seat Change Projections

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Those are neither ComRes predictions nor Electoral Calculus prediction.

Rather, they are the results I obtain putting ComRes numbers into the Electoral Calculus model.

I use ComRes because it provides regional breakouts.

Majority Still 48

There was no lead change from the prior ComRes numbers but some individual seats dis switch.


To compare, please see Three UK Election Projections, Raw Numbers and Seat by Seat.

No Change, No Surprise

Yesterday I commented Expect No Further Labour Gains: What You See is What You Get

It's not just ComRes, all the polls have stabilized.

Actual Ballot Papers

ComRes used actual constituency ballot papers for this poll.

That may aid seat-by-seat projections even if the overall numbers did not change.


I will post YouGov results as they come in and as time permits.

Labour's Only Hope

Repeating my comment from yesterday: The only hope for Labour is that every poll is seriously wrong and all of them in the same direction.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Tories Take Crushing Lead in Latest Polls

The latest polls show increasing leads for the Tories. The trends by pollster are increasingly favorable as well.

Number Crunching the Polls Points to Big Tory Win

An average of the last six polls suggests a Tory majority of 46 according to Electoral Calculus.

Best and Most Controversial Pollster, YouGov's Latest Results

YouGov's latest poll shows another pickup for Labour with support for Tories unchanged.

Looking Like a Tory Blowout and Complete Collapse of Labour

I crunched the latest poll numbers region by region. It points to a blowout.

Brexit Party On Pace to Overtake Tories by Election Day

Nigel Farage's Brexit Party is on the verge of overtaking the Tories. From zero members to 100,000 in just Five weeks!

Don't Watch the Latest Polls, Instead Watch the Trends

Here's the 6 most recent Tory poll results: 40, 36, 34, 36, 41, 36. Is there a trend? Yes, you have to dig to find it.

Three UK Election Projections, Raw Numbers and Seat by Seat

YouGov projects a Conservative majority of 68, Electoral Calculus 34, and a model of ComRes data yields 48.

Tories Jump to Double Digit Lead in Every Poll

BMG was the last pollster holdout with a sub-10% Tory lead. BMG now has a 13% Tory lead, up from 8% on Nov 15.

Mish's Fearless UK Election Forecast Seat-by-Seat

Here's my fearless UK election forecast: Tory Majority 40. Details below.