Voting Intention Little Changed

Dec 2-3 ComRes Poll Raw Numbers

My lead chart was produced by plugging the latest ComRes Poll results into the Electoral Calculus Regional Predictor

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Those numbers are from Table 23 in the ComRes poll.

Seat-by-Seat Change Projections

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Those are neither ComRes predictions nor Electoral Calculus prediction.

Rather, they are the results I obtain putting ComRes numbers into the Electoral Calculus model.

I use ComRes because it provides regional breakouts.

Majority Still 48

There was no lead change from the prior ComRes numbers but some individual seats dis switch.

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To compare, please see Three UK Election Projections, Raw Numbers and Seat by Seat.

No Change, No Surprise

Yesterday I commented Expect No Further Labour Gains: What You See is What You Get

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Actual Ballot Papers

ComRes used actual constituency ballot papers for this poll.

That may aid seat-by-seat projections even if the overall numbers did not change.

YouGov

I will post YouGov results as they come in and as time permits.

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Mish's Fearless UK Election Forecast Seat-by-Seat

Here's my fearless UK election forecast: Tory Majority 40. Details below.