The Econoday consensus expected the trade deficit to shrink to $-71.3 billion.
Instead, the Census Bureau Advance Trade Report shows the deficit rose to $-74.4 billion with December revised to $-72.3 billion.
In January, exports declined 2.2%. Exports of goods for January were $133.9 billion, $3.1 billion less than December exports.
Imports declined only 0.5%. Imports of goods for January were $208.3 billion, $0.9 billion less than December imports.
These reports will take a toll out of GDP estimates for the first quarter.
Trump Will Howl
The trade hawks in the administration will howl over today’s reports.
However, the deficit is poised to get worse, much worse.
Trump is Clueless About Trade
Trump does not understand trade deficits. The “art of the deal” cannot work when you don’t understand essential points.
Trump’s tax cut will increase the deficit and deficit spending ensures the trade imbalance will grow. Economists have not figured this out.
Mathematically, tariffs cannot possibly help. They can only make matters worse.
To understand the math, please see Trump’s Tariffs Show He’s “Clueless About Trade”.
Also consider Disputing Trump’s NAFTA “Catastrophe” with Pictures: What’s the True Source of Trade Imbalances?
A huge mistake is in the works: Trump is Set to Promote Trade Hawk Peter Navarro.
Trump’s trade policies are set to exacerbate the next global recession. Few see it coming.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
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In the short term, trying to level the playing field by threatening unbalanced exporters with tariffs seems like a reasonable way to bring the bad actors to the negotiating table. Remember, there is no “Free Trade”, only (mis)-Managed Trade. Of course, in order for a threat to be effective, it has to be taken seriously. My guess is that Mish and many others have completely missed what President Trump is trying to accomplish. The fact that so many otherwise-smart people under-estimate him is one of the President’s chief advantages.
Realist: “… you agree with Trump that the solution to this problem is to put Tariffs on Canadian lumber …” That is not a realistic statement of my personal views, Realist. The solution is clear — roll back excessive regulations; make sure that every regulation has pronounced unequivocal benefits which far exceed its costs, giving particular weight to jobs in the US. Long term, I personally would like to see “regulations” eliminated, ie rules put in place by faceless unaccountable bureaucrats. Long term, there should be no regulations, only laws passed by elected accountable individuals. And, yes, that will mean eliminating whole tribes of bureaucrats, thereby lowering the deadweight of overhead on the US economy.
Do tariffs get added to the trade deficit? Wouldn’t make sense since the tariff money stays in the US.
typo: “U.S. corporations don’t want to pay a living wage.”
If automation is here, then why are so many factories moving to Mexico? No, human workers are still needed. But U.S. corporations don’t want t pay a living wage.
The U.S. became the world’s biggest economy from manufacturing. That is a historical fact. And manufacturing jobs fostered prosperity where a worker could support his family, Mom could stay home and raise the children, and they could afford to buy a home. Corporations made a decent profit, but Wall St. kept screaming for greater profits. The corporations and their think tanks plotted to move production out of the U.S. to low-wage countries, while re-importing the manufactured goods back here. The key was removing tarriffs, and that was accomplished with the passing of trade agreements, signed by Bill Clinton. The trade agreements were sold as adding to U.S. jobs, but were really a Trojan Horse to allow factories to move out f the U.S., and bring their manufactured products back to the U.S. with minimal tariffs. This has resulted in gigantic trade deficits, and a devastating destruction of the American middle class. But hey- the stock market is booming and the rich are richer!
Mish said: “Other factors are in play …” Good! Finally you are getting it! One of those factors is excessive counter-productive regulation — which, to give due credit to Mish’s least favorite person, the President is reportedly trying to grapple with. An obvious case of the US shooting itself in the foot with over-regulation is the lumber industry. There are lots of tress in the US, but the US lumber industry has been crippled in order to protect the Spotted Owl or some such creature — resulting in the need to import lumber from Canada.
Trade policy has massive long-term ramifications on the strength of a nation’s economy. Often people fail to note the difference between free and fair trade. In many ways, the global economy has become an ill-regulated business model tilted to favor big business and giant conglomerates. We should not lose sight of the fact that while free trade is important, fair trade is far more so and should be the main issue.
Developing a long-term sustainable economic system that is balanced would contribute to both global cohesion and the world economy. The article below is in response to a slew of comments from my recent article titled, “Higher Prices On Import Goods A Fair Cost For Jobs”. Today many people supporting past trade agreements mistakenly use low consumer prices as a battle flag around which to rally.
link to brucewilds.blogspot.com
Correct, but the schoolbook economists will tell you the trade rebalances when the currency weakens. What a hoot. You just pay higher price for imports and the deficit worsens. The production chain has already moved to Asia.
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I notice that posts don’t appear instantly. If it gets rid of the spam, that’s not a bad tradeoff.
Longer term, the weaker dollar will eventually help the balance of trade. It will also lower the standard of living. Hey, you can’t have both. Well, you could, if you could substantially increase productivity, but that isn’t going to happen.
Yes, I should have said “didn’t help over the short-run”. Longer-term it should, barring a trade war.
Correct but note it was export that declined. In theory, the weak dollar should help exports. Other factors are in play, as I stated.
Weakening $USD sure didn’t help with the Trade Deficit.