by Mish

According to the latest breakdown of short positions by Deutsche Bank, speculators increased their net shorts by $7.7 billion in 10Y cash equivalents to $99.4 billion, a third successive week of record low positions.

5-year Treasury Spec Shorts

Image placeholder title

10-year Treasury Spec Shorts

Image placeholder title

30-year Treasury Spec Shorts

Image placeholder title

Standard Deviations Treasury Spec Shorts

Image placeholder title

Eurodollars Spec Shorts


Image placeholder title

The above charts and comments from ZeroHedge via Deutsche Bank.


  1. For every future short there is a future long, so the net is always zero. In this case, the commercial traders are long and the speculators are short.
  2. Eurodollars have nothing to do with euros. They are actually an interest rate play on US dollars. Short eurodollars is a bet that interest rates in US dollars will rise.

Yield Curve Monthly Chart

Image placeholder title

Yield Curve Weekly Chart

Image placeholder title

Short Covering Setup

  1. Belief in the Trump economy is extremely high.
  2. Treasury Shorts keep piling on even as yields decline.
  3. Those short from 3-4 weeks ago are already underwater.
  4. A very explosive short-covering setup is in play. All it takes is one very bad economic report and yields will plunge.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Spotlight on the Timing of Treasury Shorts

The lead-in chart, also posted yesterday, shows the progression of treasury shorts. Let's now look at yields and timing.

Speculators Record Short 10-Year Futures: Short Squeeze Coming Up?

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s quantitative and derivatives strategy team warns of potential short squeeze in US treasuries.

10-Year Treasury Short Squeeze Fuel Hits Another Record High

The commitment of traders report shows treasury bears are record short 10-yr treasury futures. They will cover.

Are US Treasury Yields Headed Up or Down? My Answer: Yes, Yes, Yes

Many Mish readers have been asking about US treasury yields. Are yields going up or down? My fearless forecast is yes, yes, and yes. A series of charts will explain.

10-Year Treasury Shorts Press Bets to Near-Record Levels

COT Futures reports for Tuesday came out today. Treasury bears are pressing short positions.

Yield Curve Inversion Coming Up?

Several readers asked me to comment on the possibility of a yield curve inversion.

Hello Treasury Bears: About That 3.0% Treasury Yield Line in the Sand

According to numerous treasury bears, yields would soar out of control once the 3.0% threshold broke. Well?

Yield Curve Bear Steepener?

Minyanville Prof. Bennet Sedacca is writing about the Bear Steepener.