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Trump Calls Jay Powell Clueless

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Enormous Mistakes

Still Winning Big

Despite the mistakes we are still "winning big".

Supposedly we are raking in billions.

So Why Panic?

One has to wonder why, if we are winning big, and taking in billions, Trump Chickens Out, Delays Trade War Tariffs to Save Holiday Season.

One Hit Wonder

Yesterday stocks rose about 1.5% on news of the tariff suspension.

Today's Carnage

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  • S&P 500 Futures: -96 Points, - 3.3%
  • Nasdaq 100: -238 Points, -3.1%
  • Dow: -800 Points, -3.1%

Clearly, this is winning big. How else can one possibly describe the situation?

Long Bond Screaming Recession

That one-day wonder was even faster than I expected.

Here's the message: Recession.

Meanwhile, note that a Global Manufacturing Recession has started and Trump's tariff policy made matters much worse.

Note that the normal Lead Time Between Manufacturing Recessions and Full Recessions is zero quarters.

A recession may have started already.

Recession Evidence?

Evidence of a recession isn't necessary. History suggests evidence will only be disclosed in arrears, via backward revisions of economic data.

Question of the Day

Mike "Mish" Shedlock