Trump Calls Jay Powell Clueless

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Enormous Mistakes

Still Winning Big

Despite the mistakes we are still "winning big".

Supposedly we are raking in billions.

So Why Panic?

One has to wonder why, if we are winning big, and taking in billions, Trump Chickens Out, Delays Trade War Tariffs to Save Holiday Season.

One Hit Wonder

Yesterday stocks rose about 1.5% on news of the tariff suspension.

Today's Carnage


  • S&P 500 Futures: -96 Points, - 3.3%
  • Nasdaq 100: -238 Points, -3.1%
  • Dow: -800 Points, -3.1%

Clearly, this is winning big. How else can one possibly describe the situation?

Long Bond Screaming Recession

That one-day wonder was even faster than I expected.

Here's the message: Recession.

Meanwhile, note that a Global Manufacturing Recession has started and Trump's tariff policy made matters much worse.

Note that the normal Lead Time Between Manufacturing Recessions and Full Recessions is zero quarters.

A recession may have started already.

Recession Evidence?

Evidence of a recession isn't necessary. History suggests evidence will only be disclosed in arrears, via backward revisions of economic data.

Question of the Day

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Dear President Trump: Stop Tweeting and Do What You Want

Supposedly we are close to a deal then we aren't. And not just with China. President Trump, please make up your mind.

Trump Calls Jerome Powell and the Fed "Naive Boneheads"

Trump's attack on the Fed reached a new level today when trump call them all "boneheads".

Trump's Tariffs Show He's "Clueless About Trade"

What does Trump know about tariffs and trade deficits? Steve Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University provides the answer.

Pay Hikes in 2020: What Do You Expect?

Every month the New York Fed does a survey of household expectations. Let's take a look at the findings.

Hello Trump, It's Not a Media Conspiracy, It's You

Trump blames the media for purposely spreading panic to shut down businesses. What about Republican Governors?

Anything Congress Can Do, Trump Can Do Better

Concern over tariffs erupted in Congress today. Republicans are openly feuding with Trump. I offer a musical tribute.

Clueless Trump Demands You Pay More For Less: He Says So Himself

In another absurd Tweet, Trump lashes out at the Fed and a US dollar that supposedly buys too much

What the Hell is the ECB Doing?

Danielle DiMartino poses an interesting question regarding the ECB. I have a set of answers.

Hello Jerome Powell, We Have Questions

This is an open letter to Jerome Powell and the Fed.