In response to Investigating Trump's Trade War Through the Eyes of China, a reader responded: "Seems like the threat of tariffs brought results. Surprised?"

I replied "Of course not. I talked about this kind of BS in advance. Here is an excellent summation [Tweet] from someone else."

https://twitter.com/nedprice/status/1137156676979712001

That was an amazingly accurate Tweet by Ned Price.

At the time of my reply, I was not aware of this about-to-break story and I do not know if Price was either.

Color neither of us surprised.

Mexico Agreed to Take Border Actions Months Before Trump Announced Tariff Deal

Please consider Mexico Agreed to Take Border Actions Months Before Trump Announced Tariff Deal

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The deal to avert tariffs that President Trump announced with great fanfare on Friday night consists largely of actions that Mexico had already promised to take in prior discussions with the United States over the past several months, according to officials from both countries who are familiar with the negotiations.

Friday’s joint declaration says Mexico agreed to the “deployment of its National Guard throughout Mexico, giving priority to its southern border.” But the Mexican government had already pledged to do that in March during secret talks in Miami between Kirstjen Nielsen, then the secretary of homeland security, and Olga Sanchez, the Mexican secretary of the interior, the officials said.

Having threatened Mexico with an escalating series of tariffs — starting at 5 percent and growing to 25 percent — the president faced enormous criticism from global leaders, business executives, Republican and Democratic lawmakers, and members of his own staff that he risked disrupting a critical marketplace.

After nine days of uncertainty, Mr. Trump backed down and accepted Mexico’s promises.

Crisis Questionnaire

https://twitter.com/MishGEA/status/1137526922731298816

Ignore my post title. This is a tough one. I do not know the answer.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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