On Fox News, Trump Calls Some Flare-Ups ‘Burning Embers’ despite record cases and hospital beds filling up in California, Texas, Arizona, and Florida, 

In an interview on Fox News that aired Sunday, Mr. Trump said many recent cases involve young people. “They have the sniffles and we put it down as a test,” he said.

Mr. Trump said some flare-ups of new cases were like “burning embers” and flames that need to be put out. “We have embers and we do have flames. Florida became more flame-like,” he said, adding, “It’s going to be under control.’’

While more testing does result in more cases, Dr. Fauci said in a June 16 interview that higher percentages of positive tests in many states “cannot be explained by increased testing.”

The percent of positive tests on a seven day average has swelled from about 4.4% in mid June to almost 9% as of mid July, according to Johns Hopkins University.

Daily New Deaths and Cases

Daily Covid Deaths a nd New Cases Per Day 2020-07-19

Deaths vs Cases

  • Daily deaths peaked on April 24 at 2,254 per day. 
  • The number of cases peaked 11 days earlier at 32,464 cases per day.
  • Deaths are trending up again, and also with a lag.

The lags make sense. People do not immediately die. Rather they get sick, then very sick, then go to the hospital, then die. 

The July lag is unlikely to match the lag in April because different states and age groups are involved.

Reduced Death Rate Factors

  • Hospitals have worked out better treatment methods.
  • Increasingly younger people are catching Covid.

Patients Stranded in Emergency Rooms as Hospitals Fill Up

The problem with downplaying the reduced death rate is hospital beds are filling up even if people do not end up dying. 

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