Predictit betting odds show Trump is a 13 percentage point underdog to Biden in the 2020 election.
Swing States Tilting Blue
- Arizona: 62
- Florida: 55
- Michigan: 74
- Minnesota: 77
- New Hampshire: 73
- North Carolina: 56
- Pennsylvania: 69
Swing States Tilting Red
- Georgia: 57
- Iowa: 59
- Ohio: 57
Iowa, and Georgia are not supposed to be in play, but they are.
Spotlight Texas
Of the two most recent Texas polls, Biden is tied for the lead in one, and down by a mere point in the other.
Betting Odds Changed With Photo-Op Stunt
Trump lost the lead following his disastrous photo-op bible stunt in the wake of the George Floyd murger by a Minnesota police officer.
Following the photo-op incident I commented Something Changed for the Better: Trump’s Bubble Just Shattered
Numerous ranking ex-military officers and ranking Republicans spoke out against Trump.
Colin Powell, George Bush, Cindy McCain, Mitt Romney, and Jeb Bush were among them.
For details, please see The Trump Spotlight Shifts to Colin Powell.
Preposterous Tweet
Trump slid further following a ridiculous Tweet in which Trump Defended Police Who Cracked a 75-Year Old Man’s Head.
Trump made the preposterous claim that 75-year old Martin Gugino “could be an ANTIFA provocateur“.
Trump further claimed Gugino “appeared to scanning police communications to black out the equipment“.
I posted 4 images from a video that show Gugino was holding a cell phone.
Click on the above link for more details including a video.
Mish
There is a positive of a Biden presidency. Think of Joe as fertilizer that gives the GOP the nutrients they need to become the party of small government and fiscal conservatism again. When we have a Republican president, those values tend not to be watered and fertilized.
All Republicans criticizing Trump are from the ESTABLISHMENT. As you have conveniently NOT noticed, the revolts around the world are anti-establishment. If you have confidence in polls, you must also believe govt will do the right thing.
You can try all you want to turn this into a race issue or an anti-ANTIFA issue, but you will not be able to hide the truth forever. The police and race issue are ESTABLISHMENT issues – specifically, the govt protecting their own.
Immunity for government police, prosecutors, and even politicians has resulted in a govt so full of hubris and self-interest that they feel emboldened to do anything, no matter how obviously absurd (i.e. Russian/Ukraine hoaxes, shutting down the economy, imposing social distancing, contact tracing, etc.).
The truth is Govt’s know there is no possible way to fund the social programs and they fear massive uprisings. Their hubris leads them to believe they can impose “social distancing” to thwart the uprisings. Sorry, as we have learned by the rioting, anger supersedes fear, and there are not enough private contractors to protect the elite, or even collaborators like Fauci, when the curtain is pulled away.
Anyone that has fled centrally-planned countries will tell you the West is becoming what they were fleeing. These people are not the only ones appalled at how easily people surrendered everything under the pretense of a virus with a death rate of 0.0003% of the population. Trump will win because the majority will call BS on the establishment hoax.
When 78 year old sleepy Joe wakes up and finds out where he is, his poll numbers will go down. I can’t wait for the debate between sleepy Joe and Trump. Unless the DNC won’t let him debate.
If Biden was wise, he should avoid the debates. As soon as the American public see the difference between Trump and Biden, Trump’s ratings go up. Not a fan of Trump as much as Candidate Trump, but Trump is still better for the internal workings of the nation. Biden and the Democrats will destroy everything like the cities were destroyed with these rioters.
I would normally be very surprised if Biden consented to a debate – he has nothing to win by exposing himself as even less fit to be President than Trump. But Trump has a way to force him on the stage: He could always have a debate with the third party candidates, especially the Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen. The threat of a debate going on without Biden will likely bring him to the state.
Ronald Reagan did this with John Anderson in 1980 and even though he did not perform very well against the astute Anderson, he got a lot of credit for his willingness to engage. And Jimmy Carter took another lump for not being so willing.
Mish, in two months people will forget about this. If Trump avoids more stupid moves like the Church photo (admittidely a tall order), and focuses on Biden’s sexual assault allegations and weakness on China, he might still have a shot.
Good coverage, well presented and argued.
Based on reality as it is now, Trump won’t win re-election. But five months is a lifetime in politics, especially right now.
If the pandering to bogus BLM guilt-tripping changes as conservatives with a public profile begin to reject the thesis and grow a backbone, and if the depth and scope of the sedition mounted against Trump is revealed in a clear, convincing way – ideally with prosecutions – and if the economy recovers better than expected (like happening with mortgage market right now), and if Antifa funding reveals too many uncomfortable truths about the manufactured outrage operations, then we might just start to see a major sea-change. A 20% pendulum swing is huge in electoral politics.
The number of predictions – with or without supporting data – convincing everyone that Trump is soon toast is legion, albeit thus far mainly wrong. So we’ll see if the Orange Idiot Monster is finally meeting his Waterloo, or if biased analysis will once again bite into nothing but dust.
Trump will win again. Once Biden opens his mouth to speak at the first debate and he utters one incoherent and bizarre statement after another it will be over for ole Joe. Throw into the mix the fact that most American’s are opposed to these ridiculous riots and the Trump train will roll into another victory.
Biden’s best strategy would be to decline to debate Trump. Just let Trump continue being Trump.
I dread a uni-color congress and WH.
I still can’t decide if the Trump/Biden debates will be the best or worst thing ever to air on television. It’s hard to imagine this is what Philo Farnsworth had in mind when he helped invent the medium 90 years ago.
They will be both – at the same time.
And because it’s impossible not to watch a train wreck in real-time if you can, I predict that at the very least, the first debate between the two will probably set records for the numbers of viewers.
I hate politics and politicians. I believe there is a special place in hell reserved for both them and their sycophants.
Having said that, I will freely admit that I may take vacation to ensure that nothing gets in the way of me watching the first one.
Get the pizza, popcorn, beer and get ready for some hilarious realty TV!!!
Polling is meaningless until Biden picks a VP. A good pick and the race is probably over, a bad pick and the race will be on again given the likelihood Biden can’t finish a term. Did any of the “ranking” Republicans listed support Trump in 2016? I think that’s a roll call for Never Trump. I can see where Trump’s performance may not change their minds to support him, but they never supported him to begin with so what they say probably matters little to actual voters. Trump is likely to do more to alienate people, but the ball is really in Biden’s court.
So if we’re talking odds, what are the odds Biden makes a good VP pick?
I hope he picks Obama. The shrieking from the conservosphere would be epic.
That would certainly be hilarious. I know he won’t, but I can think of worse picks.
The debates will be key. If Biden stumbles and mumbles people will figure it’s better to go with the devil you know.
Not if, when.
Why would you think there will be debates? I can’t imagine Biden agreeing to participate. Maybe Trump will debate Jo Jorgensen instead?
Carl is right. There will be no debates.
Wow Quatloo – I may need to do another post
I always wondered what a bitchslap would look like in words.
Watch out Mish or you will be sued along with CNN!