The answer is Iran’s ability to escalate exceeds that of the US.
Ability to Escalate
Off Limits?
The above chain of posts got me thinking about the initial ceasefire.
It was not generally expected at the time.
What happened?
Iran Drone Attacks Hit Kuwait’s Desalination Plants, Oil Complex
On April 4, 2026, the Wall Street Journal reported Iran Drone Attacks Hit Kuwait’s Desalination Plants, Oil Complex
Iranian drone strikes hit two of Kuwait’s power and desalination plants as well as the Shuwaikh oil sector complex in Kuwait City, causing fire and significant damage, the Kuwaiti government said early Sunday.
The attack knocked both the power and desalination plants out of service, according to a joint statement from Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy and the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, or KPC.
No injuries were reported at the plants, or at the Shuwaikh oil sector complex, according to the statement, which said emergency and firefighting teams were responding to the blaze. The Shuwaikh complex, which houses both KPC and the country’s Oil Ministry, has been evacuated, it added.
A separate drone attack also caused extensive damage to the country’s Ministries Complex on Saturday evening, just a few miles away. Kuwait said it was intercepting waves of drones and missiles during the time of the attacks. The latest barrage followed multiple attacks on Kuwait’s oil refineries and its international airport in recent days.
Ceasefire Timeline
On April 7, Trump threatened that “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back”, if Iran did not reach an agreement with the US.
On April 8, the United States and Iran suddenly agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakistan.
On April 21, Trump announced that the US was extending the ceasefire with Iran pending negotiations, while instructing the naval blockade to remain in place and telling the military to remain prepared to resume fighting. However, Axios reported that Trump does not intend to extend the ceasefire for more than a few days
Ceasefire Still in Place
Despite the truce, skirmishes continue to break out. Both U.S. and Iranian forces have traded fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with each side accusing the other of violating the terms.
President Trump continuously insists the ceasefire is officially in place despite describing it as “unbelievably weak” and on “life support” following the rejection of Tehran’s latest peace proposal.
Dependence on Desalinization Plants
- Qatar: Highest dependence. ~61-77% of total water demand; ~99% of drinking water. Produces ~0.7 billion m³ desalinated water annually. aljazeera.com
- Bahrain: ~59-67.5% of total water supply; >90% (often cited up to 100% recently) of drinking water. Small population (~1.6 million) makes it highly vulnerable. csis.org
- Kuwait: ~42-47% of total water; ~90% of drinking/residential water. aljazeera.com
- UAE: ~41-52% of total water; ~42% (some reports higher, up to 80%+ for potable in certain contexts) of drinking water. Major producer (~1.9 billion m³/year); many plants along coasts. aljazeera.com
- Oman: ~31% of total water demand; ~86% of drinking water. csis.org
- Saudi Arabia: Lowest in GCC for total but still critical. ~18-31% of total water demand; ~70% of drinking/municipal water (some reports ~50% of distributed supply). World’s largest producer (~3 billion m³/year desalinated) with thousands of plants; relies more on groundwater overall due to size. csis.org
- Israel: High and growing reliance. ~80-86% of drinkable/potable water from desalination (seawater and brackish); supplies a large share of domestic needs. Five major Mediterranean plants are key; targets include further expansion. Israel excels in efficiency, wastewater recycling (~90%+), and integration. en.wikipedia.org
- Iran: Low dependence. ~3% of drinking water supply overall (concentrated on coasts like Qeshm Island). Faces its own water crisis but relies far more on groundwater/surface sources; less vulnerable regionally but growing interest in expansion. fpif.org
Desalinization is 3 percent of Iran’s drinking water. It’s 70 to 99 percent of drinking water in other Mideast countries.
Iran, not the US has ability to escalate. And Iran has already proven willingness to do so.
Those advocating a military solution in Iran are crazy. The region is no doubt petrified, and it’s running low on defense missiles.
That combination triggered a ceasefire.
Violations Abound
The US and Iran accuse each other of violations.
Realistically, the US is escorting ships through the strait, or trying to, and Iran attacks them. That has been ongoing for days.
After each alleged Iran violation, Trump says the ceasefire is in effect.
Secretary of State, Marco Rubio Secretary denies there is a war.
Rubio Denies there Is a War
Tit for Tat Damage Yesterday
CENTCOM said no hits. That’s OKJ because the war is over and the ceasefire is still on.
A Quiet Way Out?
Which of course leads to this continuing silliness.
I don’t disagree actually. The strait will open as soon as Trump capitulates.
And he will. But we do have the world’s tallest pool.
Cartoon of the Day
Related Posts
June 1, 2026: Exxon Warns of $150 Crude. Here are the Supporting Charts
Global observed crude levels are at record low levels. Implications are ominous.
May 26, 2026: Consumer Credit Stress Is Comparable to the Great Recession
Auto delinquencies are at a new record and credit cards are near record high.
June 2, 2026: Trump’s Economic Director Claims Real Incomes Are Going Up
Let’s do a fact check on the administration’s claim.
June 3, 2026: How the War in Iran Is Contributing to Soaring Food Prices
Fertilizer, diesel, and natural gas all have an impact on food. The impact first shows up in producer prices, then consumer prices.
Perhaps he’s having nightmares in which he keeps seeing the blasted bodies of all the children he has murdered because he’s dumb as a brick.
Sociopaths have no conscience. The only person in the world who matters to Donald Trump is Donald Trump.
If the desalination plants go there will be total chaos in the Middle East and world. Humans can’t survive more than 3 days without water. If those plants blow up it will take months/years to rebuild them.
There are hundreds of millions of people in the Middle East, they will need to be evacuated somewhere where there is water and food. I would suggest ship them all to Israel, they started this mess so they can house 200 to 300 million people for the time being.
And with no water there won’t be anyone to work the oil fields or oil infrastructure so forget about $150 oil, it will go to $1500.
Got popcorn? Got exit strategy? Ready for a cruel summer? Official start of summer is June 19. Put it on your calendar, sit back, and watch the profits roll in.
We are ALL on the brink here, the game of chicken is for reals and we’ll see who blinks first. Best way to be profit is hedged either way.
“Well, see, I inherited very high prices when I came in,” Trump flatly lied. “I inherited the highest inflation in the history of our country. You know, Biden had like 9%, 10% inflation. And I inherited that, and we have it way down.”
Devine didn’t bother correcting Trump. Inflation was never 10% under Biden, and the most recent inflation rate — 3.8% in April 2026 — is, in fact, the highest since May 2023, meaning inflation is now higher than it was when he took office.
on this site and others commenters have written that “within two weeks the shiat is going to hit the fan, 150 a barrel or worse” Statements such as that were written weeks ago yet I hardly see desperation on the part of the populous. When will the sky fall? I know in two weeks LOL
LOL, yourself
Tick tock
Which populous are you thinking of? In Asia, there is already severe stress and strain. Australia / New Zealand is almost out of fuel. Africa is having issues. If all you care about is your own self then give it some time, your turn is coming.
Just watch the oil inventories, the real oil analysts had been predicting early July but some oil is getting thru the blockade. They are now predicting late July or August.
You must not have been alive or conscious in the 70’s or early 80’s when inflation and interest rates spiked to 20 % from Middle East wars and the OPEC oil embargo. Smaller shortages than what we are experiencing now. It takes time for the shortage to work through the tanker shipments, refining, and disruption system, several months.
He is trying to scare Saudi Arabia, Turkey. Egypt, etc into signing on to the Abraham Accords.
We have bigger problems brewing. Russia is done playing. Couple of strikes on student dormitories by Ukraine killing dozens of female students were the straw.
After watching the success of Iran’s response attacking a big percentage of the countries involved in sneak attacking them Russia is seriously considering changing their military policy to do same to European military production factories and U.S. bases in retaliation for strikes deep within Russia. Not only this change in posture but also the hardliners in Russia are pressing hard to use a limited nuclear strike to teach the U.S. and Europe to stop fucking with them.
Trump has shown to really suck at actually negotiating. Delivering ultimatums is not negotiating
Perhaps Trump feels he needs to have a war going on when the mid-term elections come around so that he can delay them and retain power. If he is forced to settle with Iran before November he has Cuba on deck, then Greenland, then Canada, then Panama, and Venezuela looks like it deserves another spanking. Eventually, he might have to help Russia with Ukraine and China with Taiwan in order to stay in power forever.
or maybe he can start a civil war. You can’t have elections during a civil war can you?
The fact is that the Iranians have no trust in the US
What are they asking for?
An end to US attacks on Iran
An end to Israeli attacks on Iran/Lebanon/Gaza
Peace, strangely enough, would be the basis for further negotiation on the remaining issues
The first step to productive negotiations IS NOT Iran giving up control of Hormuz, or giving up their “nuclear dust”-it is simply a real cease-fire
A month or two of a real cease-fire would build a tiny bit of trust.
But no, Trump’s ego and Netanyahu’s delusions and their “Greater Israel” project is more important.
So no trust, no negotiations.
Until the US is smack up against the oil wall
The answer is he’s carefully seeing how the elections are going to go. I suspect we get some MAJOR announcement before election day but then sometime after election day, where I expect Republicans to hold both house and senate (by whatever methods necessary), Trump will be free to do more of the same for 2 more years. I won’t be surprised if Trump’s sovereign wealth fund idea deposits money directly into the accounts of lower and middle classes. The Dumbocrats are simply out of ideas to make Americans rich.
What happened to your endless civil war commentary? I miss the good old days when your conspiracy theories were more crazy.
Really? Mish, you’re a military expert now? The only thing stopping Trump is the will to win. He got bad intelligence and was snookered by Israel and his son in law. Now, he’s looking for a way to save face. His predicament is much like Putin’s.
Does it take a military expert to see why having desalinization plants in their corner makes Iran the winner here?
Actually, I have a better question. Do you think we can just keep using those pretty bases we built if every other middle eastern country says “leave or we make you leave”? Are we gonna fight all of our allies at the same time too? Oh, I know! We can take Greenland and fight the rest of NATO while we’re at it. All with our unstoppable army that’s out of missiles.
Plus, where does the water for our bases come from. No water, no base. .
Never claimed to be a military expert – but if you bothered to look they all agree Trump has no way out,.
If you believe what you said “ The only thing stopping Trump is the will to win.” you are a MAGA Moron
Please also note the irony.
Snodgrass moans about “bad intelligence and snookered by Israel”
It was Israel’s claim this would be easy.
Yet Snodgrass stupidly proclaims “The only thing stopping Trump is the will to win.” Sheesh the stupidity of it all.
Trump ignored the advice of US military experts. And Finally the ultimate irony,
Snodgrass by his idiotic statement implies he is a military expert!
So you’re saying Trump is stupid and gullible as well as evil.