Trump finally took a fiscal stand. It’s with Democrats.
Trump Warns GOP Dissenters
The Wall Street Journal reports Trump Warns GOP Dissenters to Drop Objections on SALT, Medicaid
President visits Capitol Hill to urge passage of tax agenda, saying holdouts risk being ‘knocked out’ of party
In a closed-door meeting with the House Republican conference, the president urged fiscal conservatives to give up efforts to expand Medicaid cuts and moderates to drop their drive for further blue-state tax relief, pushing them to unite around his “one big beautiful” budget reconciliation bill, according to people familiar with his comments.
“Don’t f— around with Medicaid,” he said, according to attendees.
Heading into the meeting, the president warned of the consequences of failing to pass his bill, noting that taxes would rise for many American households should Congress fail to extend the tax provisions from his first term and that Republican holdouts could face primary challenges.
Trump said to reporters before the meeting, arguing the party is united—except for “one or two grandstanders.” He took aim at one of the House Republicans expected to vote against the bill, saying Rep. Thomas Massie (R., Ky.) should be “voted out of office.” [Mish Note: If it was only one or two, then the bill would sail. So Trump is a liar.]
Some members are pressing the idea of cutting back on the share the federal government contributes to Medicaid. Johnson has repeatedly taken that idea off the table, but spending hawks say it needs to be part of the mix, citing rising budget deficits and saying that the matching rate is unfair to states that declined to expand Medicaid to cover more low-income people, as permitted by the 2010 Affordable Care Act.
“It’s a deficit-spending bill. It actually grows the deficit this Congress,” said Rep. Warren Davidson (R., Ohio), a deficit hawk and Trump ally, who said ahead of the meeting that he was a “no” vote. Asked if Trump could say anything to get him to change his mind, Davidson said there has to be a “plan to actually cut spending.” [Mish Note: That’s correct. The bill Trump demands expands the deficit.]
Trump Shows True Colors
Instead of uniting Republicans to reduce the deficit, Trump says Rep. Thomas Massie (R., Ky.) should be “voted out of office.”
And look at Johnson who repeatedly took off the table the idea of cutting back on the share the federal government contributes to Medicaid.
DOGE Numbers Are a Scam
NextGov reports DOGE went looking for phone fraud at SSA — and found almost none
Also note DOGE Is Far Short of Its Goal, and Still Overstating Its Progress
Elon Musk now says his group will produce only 15 percent of the savings it promised. But even that estimate is inflated with errors and guesswork.
One of the group’s largest claims, in fact, involves canceling a contract that did not exist. Although the government says it had merely asked for proposals in that case, and had not settled on a vendor or a price, Mr. Musk’s group ignored that uncertainty and assigned itself a large and very specific amount of credit for canceling it.
The second-largest savings that the group lists on its site comes from a canceled I.R.S. contract that DOGE says saved $1.9 billion. But the contract it cites was actually canceled when Joseph R. Biden Jr. was president. The third-largest savings that the group claims comes from a canceled grant to a vaccine nonprofit. Mr. Musk’s group says that saved $1.75 billion. But the nonprofit said it had actually been paid in full, so the savings was $0.
Bogus DOGE
Q: How can we be certain DOGE is all hype and no reality?
A: If there was any substance to ongoing DOGE claims, they would appear in the budget.
Total it up and you perhaps have $20 billion or so in one-time items. That’s not nothing (assuming things that backfired did not eliminate that savings).
For discussion, please see How Much Money Has DOGE Really Saved, and Where Will it Go?
Let’s do some fact checks on DOGE claims and reality.
Bear in mind that Trump would not let DOGE go after Medicaid fraud.
Musk said he could find $2 trillion in waste. Then $1 trillion. Now he claims $150 billion of which $20 billion may be real, but one-time.
But that does not count costs of things like DOGE Makes Huge Mistake Firing Nuclear Workers, Now Seeks to Rehire Them
DOGE was never more than purposeful hype allowing Trump to pretend he was doing something with the deficit.
King Deal on Tariffs, the Budget, DOGE, and Deportations
- King Deal told Time he made 200 trade deals. He has made at most one.
- King Deal said he wanted to make a deal with Democrats on immigration. He did not even try.
- King Deal threatens to oust the few fiscal conservatives in Congress if they try to reduce the deficit.
- King Deal would not even let DOGE go after Medicaid fraud.
Trump has made a mess with tariffs, the budget, DOGE, and deportations.
For more on King Deal, please see Hoot of the Day: Trump Threatens a Return to Reciprocal Tariffs
We’ve gone from 200 deals “100%” to threats of returning to reciprocal tariffs if countries don’t deal.

Also see 90 Trade Deals in 90 Days, a Midpoint Update, Where Are We?
Finally, and most sickeningly, Trump Blasts Walmart on Price Hikes, Sounds Just Like Elizabeth Warren
Republicans should be seriously embarrassed by Trump.
King Deal is not interested in making deals.
He wants to command people and the markets to bow to his wishes, even to the point of sounding like Elizabeth Warren. How embarrassing.


Trumps attempt to force this bill through (basically unread and unreadable) is totally against his election rhetoric. I am no fan of trump and know that he is a liar, but I thought his budget containment effort would have a few tangible benefits.
Now it is becoming a worst case scenario with tariffs crushing the economy and not yielding much additional revenue. Inflation is real and soon (if you can find a product) you will pay more.
That begets a real decline in tax revenues as we fall into the trump recession along with increased spending and growing deficits.
I added to my Gold mining shares during the last dip as I had extra money to invest from VIX profits…
The situation in Japan is setting a tone for “Debt Aversion”.
Japan tried for years to create inflation to subdue its debt. They kept zero interest rates well beyond any other nation to lower their currency and continue trade advantages. A bold experiment to see how far currency devaluation could go.
Time answers all questions and…
The piper is at the door.
Why not just adopt the 2019 spending and let everyone figure out how to make it work? Government never reduces spending and we are facing an unruly bond market soon. Watching the 10 year and seeing a lot of people in big trouble trying to refinance real estate projects. Massive changes in value based on CAP rates increasing and long term financing costs up significantly. This won’t end well
Exactly!
I intended to do a post on this idea
Looking forward to reading it!
Thanks!
Every CRE deal right now has a 5 Cap rate. Who is going to sign up for that? The new darling investment town, Ogden Utah, is full of those.
No wonder he is so energetic. Being so unprincipled, with no internal stress response over it, would make me feel light as a feather.
In theory, SALT at $10K forces blue state taxpayers to vote for fiscally responsible candidates.
No, Newsom and the CA legislature just deficit-spend anyway. As in, free medical for undocs. I’m not sure how that gets funded. Maybe TBTF banks don’t care about credit-worthiness.
“I’m not sure how that gets funded.” Raising taxes, fees, borrowing through the sale of bonds. the problem CA has is that it keeps pushing out businesses and the middle class that make up a large percent of tax revenue.
Our public schools are crap, poor maintenance of infrastructure – as we just witnessed with the fires – crime and homelessness are rewarded and the NGOs that say they help are making too much from the gravy train to actually have any motivation to help.
And even when THE VOTERS turned down an attempt to pay inmates more for their labor, CA Dem legistors keep trying. Which is why Dems will keep losing. They are clueless.
If inmates want better pay, they shouldn’t have committed crimes that got them sent to jail in the first place!
If you believe government is as fraudless as NextGov is indicating, explain the many stories emerging from states – HSR in CA and the untrackable homeless money along with the ‘consulting’ help the city of LA is getting to plan next steps for Pacific Palisades post fire. Also, why do condos for homeless people cost 800k a piece? The CA state budget is 15b in the red, but why is no one discussing the 10b being handed to healthcare to pay for illegal immigrants while voters are paying through the nose for it?
Let’s call it something other than fraud to keep NextGov – whoever that is – focused on the problem. Why did all of the military equipment get abandoned in Afghanistan? To Mike’s point, why is there no aggressive moves to root out medicare fraud?
“Let’s call it something other than fraud ….” How about, as borrowed from CA’s psychedelic age and AI, fiscal hallucination?
Turns out the rino is Trump!
The whole GOP is RINO. Being accused of RINO in the current GOP is akin to be accused of being a classic Republican.
Mish, did you have AI generate the Trump humpty dumpty pic above? It’s flipping awesome. 👏 👏 👏
What are you talking about? Trump posed for it, the lifelike resemblance is uncanny.
That’s why I thought it was so hilarious!!! I almost spit my drink out when I saw it.
Thanks!
It took 10 tries With Grok AI. Still not right.
I combined pieces from multiple images in Photoshop.
I guess that no one is talking about raising taxes. I would increase the Social Security withholding limit and include all income including capital gains in the calculation. I would also let the TCJA expire. Balance the rest with cuts that are legislated not decreed. And although it is to my financial disadvantage in the short term, a healthier country is better for me in the long term.
I would just get rid of social security and medicare. Problem solved without raising taxes on anyone.
I doubt that the Federal Government would reimburse me the net present value of all my contributions to FICA and Medicare over 40 years.
Volunteer at old goats homes … .
Over what kind of time period? Decades or you mean tomorrow?
And if you mean tomorrow, what’s your plan to deal with 50+ million people who are relying on it? They’ll just ‘take’ what they need from stores to live and there aren’t enough jail cells to jail 50 million people. So your only other option is mass murder on a Stalin level scale.
Pay everyone out now for what they paid in.
You think that would not trash the currency (even more), immediately? Pay me $1 million, and tomorrow a Big Mac will cost — wait for it — $1 million.
I think it’s the best of a choice of all bad scenarios.
Good point. Pay out what is owed to everyone and fold up camp. Enough already.
Tens of millions of diseased and deranged people on every street in America. An interesting image. That was already tried though (again referencing Stalin). And look at the cash-out done at the end of the USSR. Lifespans collapsed. Are you ready for road warrior world?
I’m not familiar with what happened in the USSR so can’t compare, but I do know that no one believes that soc sec tax dollars will be repaid to those who paid in. Do you?
It’s a good deal for low-income contributors but a bad deal for high income people. A form of welfare for sure.
BS. they paid the money in and we all know they’re not going to get it back. welfare is giving them someone else’s money. It’s their money.
I see you want to get rid of the programs people were forced to pay into all their life. I take it you want to keep welfare programs like Medicaid intact.
And who could forget the cuts that DOGE made to the IRS which are expected to reduce government tax dollars by $500B. It’s all a bad joke economically – Trump is spending more than the previous administration already.
Despite it being a provable fact, most of his voters are so disinclined to fact check anything he says they will just insist it’s Fake News and that anyone who says otherwise is an unwitting tool of the Deep State, despite the fact they have made themselves into unwitting victims of Trump’s BS. This all got to be a lot worse once the GOP did their best to eliminate public education funding in the USA
You nailed it Mike! King Deal does not know what he is doing, nor do most of the people he has surrounded himself with this time. He is 95% show and in life and real estate that has gotten him some wealth beyond what his father gave him, a reality TV show, two divorces, and an existing, obviously dysfunctional marriage. Because his ability to BS is so highly refined, he has become an unmatched political force during a time of social media and the associated scourge of fake news and gaslighting at scale.
“Because his ability to BS is so highly refined ….” IMO, it is more an index of the collapse of intelligence of the audience. But then, I look back at some Dem policies and cringe too.
Trump’s bad judgement derailed his first term. I sense that his bad judgment will do the same his second term.
This bill will filter to the top. It doesn’t help us at all. Expanding Medicaid only hurts us. Hospital bills are already unaffordable.
“Bad judgement” nice way to say “Dumb Fraud”
Shame on Trump voters who were dumb enough to get fooled once, never mind twice! Talk about dumb!
Given two bad choices what choice do you take?
Neither.
That’s guaranteed to fix nothing
Lot’s of smoke and dogers. I support Massie, 100%.
Trump will be more generous to the truly poor than any democrat.
If Trump is generous to the truly poor, it will be because it suits his big ego to do so. He likes the mass applause, don’t you know.
Leave SALT at $10K, just raise it later with blue-state D’s support.
Raising taxes is politically impossible in the USA. That’s why we are where we are.
Imagine Wyoming has about one sixth the voters of my city, and my city is about 10% of my state’s population, but Wyoming gets two Senators. hence no new federal taxes.
Then I guess this story from the NY Times is probably correct and as I had stated in another comment thread, a huge explosion of SS enrolls in this fantastic Trump economy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/business/social-security-early-retirement.html
Got backup plan?
Got exit strategy?
I know two 62 year olds who claimed early under the belief that Trump and Republicans would try and do something nasty to the program before they got on. I tend to think even the dumbest Republicans know better, so I’m holding out for a few years.
The fundamental question is solvency. Many people here believe the program will never go away and that may be true. Benefits may be cut or the payouts become irrelevant due to inflation.
All I know for sure is that the program won’t cover ever increasing inflation over the long haul and begging for tax increases to steal more money from the young is a colossal crime.
Instead of waiting until 70, I claimed in November of last year. I remember vividly Paul Ryan’s 2012 plan to end SS. Republicans have always hated Social Security. How dare workers fund their own retirement plan.
Fortunately, one quarter of Americans drawing SS also have a job so they continue to pay into SS.
That may be because they refused to plan ahead for their retirements?
Its hard to retire when you can not afford to…
I did not know that you continue paying into SS once you past 70. I also did not know that benefits can increase after age 70, IF your earnings in a subsequent year are greater than one of the prior 35 years used in your original benefit calculation.
It’s stupid to work until 70 and then collect ss. The average American male dies at 73. Three years of retirement?
The average American should eat healthier and exercise more. Then they would live longer.
This being said the average American DOES NOT die at age 73. It is age 77.5 as of 2022 with men at 74.8 years and woman at 80.2 years.
Who knew that average means it happens to everyone at that exact time?
Spot on Mish!! Pointing out the FACTS once again! Thank you!
$880 billion was supposed to be cut from Medicaid and that’s where they planned to get most of the overall federal budget cuts from.
I think Trump is just putting on a show before they actually do it, so he can wash his hands of it.
King herod is at it again with his idle threats.
Is that a promotion from “…literally H—-r” ?
Massie’s practically the only good one in Congress.
I am proud to say I voted for Thomas Massie in the 2020 and 2024 Presidential elections (as a write in obviously)!
The clown actually thinks he is some sort of king .
Easily the most fiscally reckless president in the modern era
Biden was worse in that Biden’s second stimulus and the IRA bill were pure greed. But yea, Trump is awful on government spending and debt. I hope enough Republicans say no to the insanity to force Trump to beg for Democratic votes to pass his stupid “big” bill.
Trump was the first president in the history of the Republic to just hand out money straight to the electorate. Even demanded his name be put on any checks. For his second term, he promised an even bigger handout ($2k instead of 1.2k). He handed Biden something every democrats wanted to do since FDR. A second Trump term would have been no better than Biden.
I place Trump above Biden or any 21st century Democrat. But that’s like arguing whether Stalin or Hitler was a better leader!
on which page can I find where inflation went down on the Inflation Reduction Act?
Will Anyone Take the Factory Jobs Trump Wants to Bring Back to America?The president has pledged to bring more factory work back to the U.S., but many manufacturing jobs are already going unfilled
https://archive.is/gwt68#selection-2127.0-2135.125
The only reason people want factory jobs to come back is because they vaguely recall workers making good money. What they don’t recall is that they made good money because they were part of unions. Those factory jobs coming back won’t be unionized, and unless you’re some kind of engineer, it’ll pay what flipping burgers pays. So, of course no one is going to want to stand on an assembly line for 5 hours a day when they could get a better paying job driving for Uber. * 5 hours because their employer isn’t going to pay for health insurance so they have to work as part timers.
‘Photographs by Ross Mantle for WSJ’
Did he intern with Norman Rockwell in the 1950s? Those places don’t look anything like that now.