I would be willing to “shut down” government if the Democrats do not give us the votes for Border Security, which includes the Wall! Must get rid of Lottery, Catch & Release etc. and finally go to system of Immigration based on MERIT! We need great people coming into our Country!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 29, 2018
Possibilities
- Democrats give Trump the Wall: Trump a clear winner, but democrats will do no such thing. Republicans will have to do this by themselves.
- Democrats refuse to give Trump the Wall and Trump backs down: Trump would go on a Tweet storm rampage and there would not necessarily be a clear winner.
- Democrats refuse to give Trump the Wall and Trump shuts down the government. Trump and Republicans would get the blame. Republicans would be clear losers.
- Republicans alone give Trump his wall. Unlikely, there are not enough Senate votes.
- Other legislation hits Trump’s desk and he signs it. This one is possible, but we have to see the legislation and backlash to decide a winner, if any.
Extra Wall Chance
Option 4 is a wall chance not requiring Republicans, but that could have been accomplished already. Why wasn’t it?
This is why: On February 17, The Hill reported 14 GOP Senators Voted Against Trump’s Immigration Framework.
The problem for Trump is that the Republican Senate itself is very divided.
Ted Cruz (Texas) wants no amnesty while Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) wants more. Getting all the Republicans in the Senate to agree to anything will be very difficult.
Most Likely Outcome
The most likely outcome is door number 2. It is the least risky for the Republicans. They will get to howl about security for weeks.
The second most likely alternative is door number five. Republicans alone pass some sort of legislation, Trump signs it and declares victory. That option is far riskier than door number two, and it is not clear if the Senate can accommodate even that.
This whole thing is likely a purposeful bluff that Trump intended from the outset to back away from, just so he can howl. Whether or not such an outcome is good or bad for the Republicans is unknown.
Meanwhile, the market may not take too kindly to this threat.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
Trump Threatens to Shut Down Government if Wall Not Approved: 5 Possibilities
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18 comments on Trump Threatens to Shut Down Government if Wall Not Approved: 5 Possibilities
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Mish
“3. Democrats refuse to give Trump the Wall and Trump shuts down the government. Trump and Republicans would get the blame. Republicans would be clear losers.”
That’s what really sad about all this. Trump’s just an idiot, and will forever remain so, so that’s not really all that interesting anymore. But the dittohead army now having fallen so far down the rat hole of indoctrination, that they have even been suckered into believing shutting down the government is somehow a bad thing, it’s what’s really sad. Heck, if Trump really, truly, no exceptions, managed to shut the whole darned thing down, for the remainder of his Presidency; he really would be a Great President. Ergo, unfortunately, he won’t…. He’ll just throw terrible-twos tantrums and tweet some more inanities instead.
Have you REALLY thought about this. ‘Essential services’ will continue but ‘essential workers’ will NOT be payed. How long do you think those workers will continue providing their ‘essential services’ without pay . . .
CNN forgot about this about thirty news cycles ago. This is one of Trump’s signature, must-have agenda items/campaign promises. I bet he burns a metric butt ton of political capital to make the Wall happen.
Another trial balloon by ANTI CHRIST TRUMP. FERCHRISTSAKES Mish, Wall or not, will you and your gaggle of FAKE LIBERTARIAN PATRIOTS volunteer to work in the fields and make sure the harvest doent ROT? ANTI CHRIST TRUMP got bigger things to worry about, why are you concentrating on ONE where even the immigrants YAWN at? All they need is air fare…or a ladder…hmmm
I will bet the house on option 2! All politicians bluster and then back down. Trump is the best at it.
Some people are so slow! What is so difficult to understand ? — President Trump is a negotiator. If you want an ice cream cone, you go in asking for a controlling interest in Baskin Robbins. When you get your ice cream cone, the usual suspects call you a failure — and you smile while you enjoy your ice cream cone.
Democrats become more extreme every day in favoring uneducated illegal aliens over working class American citizens, especially minorities and women. It is not a winning strategy for the Democrats. But they can’t seem to recognize reality.
Intelligent people who wants an ice cream cone, just go pick up an ice cream cone. It’s kind of simple. At least for intelligent people. For the rest, who knows? Maybe it seems complicated enough to throw tantrums over….
Trump has made life more interesting – may you live in interesting times.
This has been the plan since the last omnibus Trump “caved” on. Put Democrats on the spot over illegal immigration right before the mid-term elections. This is a losing issue for Democrats and they know it, which explains the manufactured hysteria last month over the family separations.
I am not at all sure this is a losing issue. Here’s the deal: Republicans will vote Republican and Democrats will vote for Democrats. How will the independents vote?
Polling shows overwhelming support for curbing illegal immigration and no amnesty. Democrats caved on it during the budget for this reason and is why they manufactured the bogus family separation issue. Since Trump undercut them on that by unexpectedly ending the practice they have nothing to use against him to further their push for amnesty. RINO’s don’t either if they wish to be re-elected. If R’s don’t support Trump on immigration their voters will stay home. This was the strategy all along with the omnibus “compromise” a few months ago – to force the Democrats to revisit and fight for illegals right before the election. He’s going to get significant wall funding out of it now too. This is the last issue the Democrats want at the forefront going into November. The immigration issue above all others is what got Trump elected. Watch.
Hillary got Trump elected. She could get anyone elected. It’s her thing. It’s the one thing she’s good at.
Why is “the market” concerned?
Other than as long as we have amnesty, we can do it for securities fraud?
Option 6, no wall funding, Trump unilaterally takes money from some other part of the budget like DoD and redirects it to the wall.
Aren’t we all beyond giving a f@(& what Trump says anymore?
The market may react quite badly to this threat,
I don’t know how the market can react to anything he says, because it always contradicts something he said last week and something he’s going to say next week.
Excellent point. One of the most effective tools of persuasion is consistency. The President’s utter lack of consistency leads any but those who believe in him with religious fervor to treat his statements as random utterances. He may mean what he says, or he may not. Predicting which of those options applies to any particular utterance is a fools errand. My guess is this applies not only to the American public but also to allied governments as well as foes worldwide. The world has turned into a crap shoot with out the benefit of being able to predict the odds of any particular throw.