Tariffs are costly for companies that use the metal to make things, including recyclers.
Recycling
- The US produces only 3% of new global aluminum, down from 50%. Trump won’t make aluminum production great again.
- Tariffs punish all aluminum users, including recyclers. And one of the biggest global aluminum recyclers is in the US.
Trump’s Tariffs on Aluminum Kill U.S. Factory Jobs
Please consider the Wall Street Journal Op-Ed Trump’s Tariffs on Aluminum Kill U.S. Factory Jobs by Stephen Moore.
The Trump trade strategy aims to bolster U.S. manufacturing—in part through steel and aluminum tariffs. But the latter especially makes no economic sense as a tool to save, let alone increase, factory jobs. If left to stand, President Trump’s June order to raise the tax on imported aluminum to 50% will almost certainly cost far more manufacturing jobs than it will save.
The U.S. doesn’t produce much new aluminum anymore. Our share of world production has fallen over the past 50 years from almost half to less than 3% today. But America is a vital source of recycled aluminum—50% of the world supply comes from one U.S. company, Novelis. It’s a pervasively reusable material: Novelis’s website says that more than 70% of aluminum ever produced is still in use today.
The tariffs have endangered the many manufacturing jobs provided by American companies that use aluminum inputs, including recyclers. Novelis alone is one of the world’s largest producers of aluminum for cans of beer and soft drinks, parts for airplanes, housing construction components and car production. The company is building a massive plant in Bay Minette, Ala. At $4.1 billion, it’s one of the largest manufacturing investments in Alabama’s history and will hire thousands of workers across construction and up to 1,000 once the plant opens.
But now Novelis is in danger of ceasing construction if there is no relief from the more than $40 million in monthly tariff-related costs it suffers.
The damage to existing U.S. manufacturing reaches up the supply chain. The aluminum tariff is hurting, among others, automakers, John Deere, Molson Coors, and Caterpillar.
The U.S. manufacturers hit by Mr. Trump’s tariffs are frustrated. They provide good jobs to Americans yet are getting hammered. Many also compete directly with China—which will be the big winner of the aluminum tariffs. Mr. Trump promised that “there are no tariffs if you manufacture or build your product in the United States.” That has proved utterly untrue.
Punishing U.S. manufacturers and their hardworking employees is hardly putting America first.
Mr. Moore is a visiting senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation and a co-founder of Unleash Prosperity. He was a senior economic adviser to the Trump campaign in 2024.
Why Tariffs Won’t Fix Manufacturing
- No one knows what the hell trump will do, what exceptions he will make, or when.
- The lead times for steel, aluminum, and copper mill expansion are too large.
- Electricity costs are rising
- Intermediate production demand is getting killed.
It will take years, if ever, for Trump to make steel, aluminum, and copper production in the US great again.
The same applies to auto parts imports.
Meanwhile the costs have gone up with Ford, GM, John Deere, and even Alcoa complaining.
I suppose Trump could make iPhone production great again by having hundreds of thousands of people put in tiny screws. But what would an iPhone cost?
Not Just Aluminum
Aluminum is an excellent example, but it’s hardly the only one.
Small manufacturers will be clobbered by these tariffs. And production will not return to the US for years if ever.
Intermediate Production Use
For every direct job in steel, aluminum, or copper production, there are hundreds of users of those metals.
A recent analysis from 2025 found that 51% of goods imported into the United States are intermediate goods, according to Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF).
Related Posts
February 11, 2025: Trump’s Steel Tariffs Now Will Work as Good as the First Time
Q: How’s that? A: Very poorly.
March 13, 2025: The Amazing “Success” of Trump’s 2018 Aluminum Tariffs in One Picture
I hope you can take a bit of headline sarcasm because the true story follows.
April 14, 2025: Say goodbye to Cheap Socks and Other Apparel, We Call This Winning
You pay more and get less, but Trump calls it winning.
June 4, 2025: Irony of the Year: Automakers Consider Moving Some Parts Production to China
China has a magnet stranglehold that causing some seemingly strange discussions.
August 3, 2025: Trump Puts 93.5 Percent Tariff on Graphite Needed for EV Batteries
Here’s another shoot yourself in the foot tariff move by Trump.
If you are looking for a reason inflation won’t go away anytime soon. There’s the case.
Unless jobs collapse and demand with it, the Fed is going to have a stagflationary mess on its hands.
How long before trump gets granular enough to shut down your blog Mish?
Jimmy Fallon is up next for a clean sweep of the late night tv shows…
No need for comedians when you have an administration full of clowns.
Oopsie! The oftentimes not trustworthy WSJ may have spoken too soon on this one.
Are Trump’s tariffs killing this $4.1 billion Alabama plant? ‘Absolutely not’ company says – al.com
They need tariff relief to build and/or expand a recycling plant?
What utter bullshit to create 1,000 jobs for $4.1 billion in direct costs and who knows how much in ancillary power plant costs. How much does power go up for other businesses and homeowners in the area?
Laughing hard at those that think this is a good economic idea to give tariff relief for a supposed recycling facility. If it needs to import Aluminum to function, how much is recycling and how much is special interest grifting?
Short Novelis anyone?
Trump thinks that drug costs can go down 1,500% so math is not a strong point of him and his minions.
“Yes, Mr. President, we promise to expand IF you give us – and only us – tariff exemptions.
Generally tariffs will help all US industries. But ours is ‘different’ – but just right now. We promise we won’t ask for tariff exemption extensions later.”
LOL
Lol! Maybe you should read the article before posting a link Ben. Or get someone to explain it to you first.
“But now Novelis is in danger of ceasing construction if there is no relief from the more than $40 million in monthly tariff-related costs it suffers.”
Yes, I did. And the article is very clear that despite the assumed caseation of the project as noted above from the WSJ article, Novelis says this is absolutely not the case. Sure, they go onto talk about tariff relief to complete the second phase, but that’s not mentioned in the WJS.
And who exactly would think that the company would just yammer on & on about loving aluminum tariffs. The part I don’t understand is why they need tariff relief when the plant is for recycling aluminum. I would imagine the source the vast majority of their aluminum here in the US.
But let’s say they do want to import foreign aluminum for recycling purposes that will be phase 2. I could easily see Trump granting them an exemption for this. They’re taking recycled aluminum from abroad & turning it into usable aluminum using tons of American workers.
This sounds like the best of both worlds. We get the create lots of jobs, make sellable aluminum & not have to build smelters, although I’m sure this plant does something to melt down the aluminum.
That sounds like MAGA to me. Go Novelis!
Haha, do you even read your own linked articles? A direct quote from the company in the article: “ To make this second investment, we need targeted and time-limited tariff exemptions for the material we must import from our overseas locations to meet U.S. customer demand until Bay Minette comes online,”
In other words – “please stop the tariffs!”
1776+ 250 = 2026. Trump rejuvenate the US for the next 50 years. China will deflate.
The EU is breaking apart. The US will flourish bc we are blessed with commodities
and democracy.
What commodities specifically?
And no answer came…
Soybeans?
Democracy? Barely, with all the voter suppression, two party system, gerrymandering, corporate power and much more. There is not much left of democracy in the USA.
Ruled as a despot; democracy went out decades ago
Interesting fact about aluminum: when bauxite was first mined to create aluminum, it was considered rarer than gold and special plates were made for royalty to celebrate its hardness and lightness and uniqueness.
=-=-=
dark . sport . blog Is my website, come visit!
The Washington monument is capped with aluminium because it was at the time more expensive than gold.
The tariffs are going to add 2 cents to a can of beer with the beer in it included. For a Boeing the added cost is between $30,000 and $100,000 per plane that costs from$100 million to over $400 million each. The added costs are almost imperceivable. I might add that Airbus uses high-cost aluminum also because they buy 80% from European smelters which are actually costlier than American ones. The funny thing is that from an overall economic point of view the beverage industry will be the one paying the most globally from the tariffs to the tune of $10 billion more. The next industry would be cars and trucks who would pay $2 billion more. The others are way down the list and most also can easily switch to other materials.
Dangit, Doug, we’ve told you to stop publishing facts that go against the tariffs are evil narrative.
Please just reconsider before posting this stuff. Someone might get their feelings hurt.
You don’t want that on you conscience now do you?
They aren’t facts. They are total garbage. You would have to be extra stupid to even “want” to believe the crap that Doug sh*ts out.
“Smart people don’t like me.” – the Cheeto Pedo
Downvote the words of dear leader? That’s a Kimmeling!
Don’t spoil the good party with facts.
Which is it, Doug? Do tariffs encourage domestic production because the tariffs/taxes are so much we can’t afford the foreign good? Or are tariffs no big deal since they only add a couple of cents, so why is everyone complaining?
BTW, AI says 62 billion cans of beer are shipped by the US beer industry each year.
Adding 2 cents a beer for aluminum tariffs, American beer drinkers are going to be out an additional $1.25 billion a year.
I know you’re a snooty French wine drinker. But I and other red-blooded Americans drink beer. So FU and your tariffs 🙂
Hubris,
You do realize as complex as the US economy is that it can both, right?
This isn’t a binary choice across all products.
And for the millionth time, Trump’s not trying to bring more beer manufacturing to the US. He’s trying to reshore strategic goods.
Beer, although enjoyable to some, isn’t a strategic good.
You should try a free online course to learn more about the economics of trade policy.
If the goal was to “reshore strategic goods” (for the millionth time?) then the tariffs imposed would be specific and strategic, and not a set percentage on every good a country exports to us, not levied on friendly trading partners with similar long-term interests, and not on countries with which we have trade surpluses.
Fail
Lol! You always make this sh*t up. $100,000 per plane? Maybe on a two seater. The cost estimates of tariffs on steel, aluminum, copper, and all the imported parts Boeing brings in add $40 million to the price of a 787 dreamliner.
Dumb f*ck.
If the costs are barely perceivable then how will they bring back jobs? Either they are effective and raise prices enough that supply chains will be altered. Or they are not. You cannot have it both ways.
Shocking that Stephen Moore would write something that criticizes Dear Leader. Also, you forgot in your bio above, Fox News Hack!
Agree – good for Mr. Moore!
I sense a carve-out coming for the recyclers …
Big Tariffs for all; carve-outs for FoT.
Unfortunately, this is vintage trump. I am not sure he is intelligent enough to realize the havoc and dissension that he is causing and what the ultimate outcome will be.
He should be required to take a medical exam AND take a basic economics course.
The Don is quite well versed in the economics that benefits oligarchs like himself and his ilk.
Such is life the Head of Marketing becomes CEO … someone has to protect him from himself. No point thinking when there is SELLING to do!
For the last 30-35 years years politicians from both sides have placed Corporate America first over American national interests. Corporations have expanded profits via outsourcing of US manufacturing to low cost foreign labor, plowing those huge profits back into corporate buy-backs and political win buy-backs on both sides. The current administration is the winner of the ire of the majority of the lower 90% voters regarding that institutional relationship. Yes, tariffs won’t work at the present time and will accelerate America’s declining global hegemony … but the proposition of reclaiming US manufacturing jobs felt good enough … and the alternatives were bad enough… for a #47 win. The US debt market competes with the equity market. After a peak equity composite on 19 Sept, a 10-11 day equity crash ending 2-3 Oct will flow money into the US bond market driving interest down by 100 basis points … This will give the Fed ample room to make two additional cuts in 2025. My take is that the final equity high before an unprecedented nonlinear 2026 crash will be a lower high.
Thanks for the heads-up. I’m selling all my holdings at the morning bell tomorrow to avoid this specific “equity crash”.
Please send me your Venmo account info and I’ll send you an appropriate commission fee
Let’s give Trump everything he wants. I’m ready for the consequences, whatever they may be.
Frosty bs and Blurtman proven facts was repeat. The hate Trump posts are junk.
Got empty beer cans?
What a show!
“Bring out your dead; Bring out your dead”…
Monty Python
An example of what is actually happening and why the tariffs force jobs and capital out of the US:
I have a friend that manufactures aerospace and other products from billets of specialized aluminum alloys imported and transported to two locations in the US.
His larger long term contracts are with De Havilland and Bombardier ~ in Canada. Three weeks ago he announced that he was closing one US location and 12 machinists would be let go along with two office staff (14 Americans were losing their jobs to Canadians).
His building went up for sale and another friend is buying it to turn into storage. New jobs are being created ~ in Canada.
He is purchasing a larger, vacant facility in Canada and reducing staff from his other US plant to the new Canadian location.
By purchasing newer ~ faster and more accurate machines, he can hire fewer machinists, pay for the move and avoid the tariffs and hassle of cross border shipping.
Since I first reported this it has gotten worse: I have learned that three additional jobs will transfer from his southern plant to the new plant. He has determined that he can transfer 8 total machinists to Canada and let go of three more US based machinists for a total of 17 lost jobs and 8 transfers of machinists and their families to Canada.
As a result there are 9 homes being sold in the US and 17 total jobs lost.
These guys are well paid and it amounts to over two million dollars in wages. The real estate sold will run into over $5 million dollars leaving the US and heading to Canada.
He knows that two of his peers are planning on moving some manufacturing out of the US as well ~ because the cost of the Aluminum here is too high to make a profit for products they sell outside of the US.
Trump and his minions are bragging about a couple companies invest $150 million to build or recommission outdated smelters and create a thousand jobs?
WTF kind of economics is that? Those jobs are costing over $1.5 million per job and will never touch the aggregate job losses/ tax revenue losses and true economic impact to the communities.
Mish is dead on in his assessment that Americans are losing jobs because of the tariffs and high electrical costs in the US.
Who does Trump work for?
Thanks for the update!
“Who does Trump work for?”
If there is a straight answer, it might be the one they forbid you to give.
Trump’s “there are no tariffs if you manufacture or build your product in the United States.”
will end up as infamous as
Obama’s “you can keep your doctor”
Century Aluminum to restart production in South Carolina, citing Trump’s tariffs
The $50 million investment will increase domestic aluminum production by nearly 10%, the company said, as it also considers additional plant investments.
Dive Brief:
Dive Insight:
The Mt. Holly plant, which has been operating at 75% capacity for about three years, has not operated at full production since 2015. Around that time, weak aluminum prices affected by a global oversupply drove U.S. producers to shutter operations.
At full capacity, the Mt. Holly location can produce up to 230,000 metric tons of aluminum, according to Century Aluminum’s latest annual report. In 2022, the company began operating the plant at 75% capacity following a 2020 project that restored curtailed production.
Century Aluminum said the restart is a direct result of President Donald Trump’s Section 232 tariffs for primary aluminum, which were raised this year to 50% on steel and aluminum imports without exceptions or exemptions. Additionally, the company has seen higher aluminum prices through the first half of the year driven by increases in Midwest region supplies.
Century Aluminum CEO Jesse Gary thanked Trump for his commitment to onshoring manufacturing of critical metals and reducing the nation’s reliance on foreign supplies.
“Our team stands ready to continue leading the resurgence of domestic primary aluminum, starting with bringing our Mt. Holly smelter back to full production,” Gary said in a statement.
At full capacity, the Mt. Holly smelter has a state economic impact of more than $890 million per year, according to Century Aluminum, citing a 2024 study from the University of South Carolina. The average wage is $100,000 for jobs supported by the company.
Trump’s second term has been focused on the idea of revitalizing manufacturing with tariffs to try and increase domestic production after years of globalization, which sent more jobs overseas, but allowed companies to produce goods at lower rates.
In June, Emirates Global Aluminum announced plans to develop a $4 billion primary production plant in Inola, Oklahoma. Century Aluminum is moving forward with its restart at Mt. Holly to remain competitive in a shifting market landscape.
The restart is made possible with the help of the South Carolina Public Service Authority, also known as Santee Cooper. It recently reached a deal to extend Century Aluminum’s contract through 2031 to purchase the additional power for the restart.
Century Aluminum, founded in 1995, has aluminum smelters that it owns and operates in the United States and Iceland, according to its latest annual report. The company also has a carbon anode plant in the Netherlands and a 55% interest in bauxite mining and alumina refining in Jamaica.
In addition to Mt. Holly, it also has smelters in Sebree and Hawesville, Kentucky. Century Aluminum is also looking to potentially sell or restart its idled Hawesville smelter by the end of September, Gary said on the earnings call.
Most Excellent News! I just posted this is what’s needed, so your timing was perfect! Electricity cost could still be an issue however…
What a load of crap… Millions per job and a fabricated impact statement stretched out over decades. Sounds like a southern politicians blather to me.
“In addition to Mt. Holly, it also has smelters in Sebree and Hawesville, Kentucky. Century Aluminum is also looking to potentially sell or restart its idled Hawesville smelter by the end of September, Gary said on the earnings call.”
Why sell it if it will be profitable? Because it will not be profitable…
The rest of the world will be buying cheap aluminum from Canada while our industries pay up the ass.
No wonder trumps casino went bankrupt! He failed 6th grade math!
Of course it’s because of the tariffs. After all, before, Al prices were weak, but now they are 50% higher. The captive domestic market will have to swallow it. Never mind about exports, that’s not going to happen.
Yup. It’s exactly what’s happened in the Sugar industry for decades.
Tariffs prop up a mostly useless US Sugar industry ensuring we all pay more for sugar.
60% of US sugar comes from sugar beets so sugar can be found from alternate sources unlike aluminum. If you can’t make aluminum anymore you will not be able to make airplanes, cars and whole swath of other products unless your foreign suppliers accord you their favor by supplying you. I don’t understand how some people can deplore China’s dominance in rare earths and in the next breath say they see no problem with the US being in the same unfavorable position with aluminum. It doesn’t make sense.
If it’s true that 70% of all produced aluminum is still in use then we don’t need to make that much of it because it’s not used up. We can recycle for most of our needs (which clearly the US is a leader in) and buy the remaining bit we need from foreign countries.
This is quite different than resources / goods that are used up.
That is true also but we would still need smelters to keep knowing how to smelt aluminium and not lose the technology. Losing industrial production knowledge is how we became so dependent on China. Once you lose it you have a very hard time rebuilding the industry. Better to keep it. It’s cheaper in the long run.
Sorry, Doug, but Tim weighed in with commonsense and an explicit example on this one to smoke your theory.
Yes, some people are concerned about China and its rare earth minerals because those are currently difficult to get elsewhere quickly at non-astronomical prices – and China doesn’t particularly like us.
BUT we used to buy aluminum from a lot of friendly countries – until Trump treated them like a bad ex-girlfriend. We could get it quickly, easily AND at lower cost than we could produce it. And then we sent them products in return that they liked. our aluminum procurement situation wasn’t “unfavorable” until the crazy on-off tariff wars started.
So these two situations are VERY different so it’s only you (and a few others here) for which “it doesn’t make sense”.
And we’re not losing “industrial production knowledge” here. First we’re still operating aluminum smelters in the US. And second, we’ll never lose the “knowledge”; but maintaining/creating new billion-dollar capital investments (that produce at less than world prices) is not necessary in all cases – like aluminum – since Trump won’t be President forever
Such old news. We have gone over this at least twice before.
1. This is not new production. It is merely reviving some old production capacity that was taken offline in 2015 because it was uncompetitive. But with 50% tariffs, Century can raise prices close to that amount, and now make a profit on that production. The net result is the same. US manufacturers pay a lot more for the aluminum they need and become even less competitive internationally. So while it creates 100 jobs, it will likely kill many thousands of other manufacturing jobs.
2. 50,000 tons is NOT a lot. We import 5 million tons a year. So it represents just 1% of imports.
– The US produces only 3% of new global aluminum, down from 50%. Trump won’t make aluminum production great again. > You failed to say why, and it isn’t His choice to make anyway, so what gives? The reason is WE Don’t have enough “Operational Smelters” and without them, you cannot increase Production. Add on to that, is the fact that the Higher Cost of Electricity, doesn’t allow us to be competitive. So yes He would love to increase production, but we can’t, so it’s a moot point as far as Trump is concerned, at the moment anyway.
“ The reason is WE Don’t have enough “Operational Smelters” and without them, you cannot increase Production. Add on to that, is the fact that the Higher Cost of Electricity, doesn’t allow us to be competitive. “
Yep. We had over 30 operational aluminum smelters in the 1970s. Now we have 4. They became uncompetitive as they aged and as electricity prices went up. The US aluminum companies ended up building modern new smelters in places like Canada and Iceland where they could secure long term contracts for cheap electricity.
If Trump wants a lot of aluminum production in the US again, he needs to give big incentives for companies to build new smelters here, and give them long term contracts for cheap electricity. Tariffs on aluminum imports are the worst possible action because they won’t incentivize much new production, and they will hurt the many thousands of US manufacturers that have to pay those aluminum tariffs.
OK, I’m with you. Why don’t we simply trade a commodity one of them requires, for what we require. Can the Tariff then be lifted per se on both items as fair trade?
This is “Silly Stupid” when we have what they need and vise verse. Isn’t that, in essence Fair Trade with some minor details worked out, to make it all line up properly.
Who in the Trump (not Him) Administration is pushing for this the most? Outside of His circle?
“ Why don’t we simply trade a commodity one of them requires, for what we require.”
That sounds okay but in reality
it is very restrictive. Don’t just look at commodities. Look big picture.
A better idea is to do what we have been doing for over a century now; import raw materials from other countries, turn them into higher value finished goods and then sell them worldwide. That’s how America became wealthy. By adding value.
We have been doing that with Canada forever. Buy their cheap commodities and sell them high priced finished goods.
Trump complains that the US buys more from Canada ($412 B) than Canada buys from us ($340B).
But break that down per person. Canadians buy $8500 each from the US and Americans buy just $1200 each from Canada. Why? Because they are selling us a lot of low prices commodities like oil, and we sell them thousands of high prices finished goods made from that oil.
Our trading relationship with Canada has been working in our favor for over a century. But Trump is screwing it up.
Trump systematically eliminating renewable energy and recycling is a feature, not a bug. Change my mind.